Eyüpspor 0-3 Fenerbahçe – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Fenerbahçe at 54% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Eyüpspor vs Fenerbahçe encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Eyüpspor host Fenerbahçe at Recep Tayyip Erdoğan Stadyumu in Süper Lig, Regular Season - 17. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 20 December 2025 at 14:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Eyüpspor stand at 2W 3D 5L from 10 Süper Lig matches — 0.90 PPG. Last five: L D W D L. They are averaging 0.60 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Eyüpspor, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Recep Tayyip Erdoğan Stadyumu, Eyüpspor have gone 3W 3D 4L this season (10 games, 1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game.
Across all Süper Lig games this season, Fenerbahçe have recorded 7W 3D 0L from 10 outings — 2.40 PPG. Last five: W W D D W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.60 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Fenerbahçe, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Fenerbahçe's form when playing away from home: 5W 4D 1L across 10 road games this term (1.90 PPG). They are averaging 2.30 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.90 is notably below their overall 2.40 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Fenerbahçe — 1.50 PPG ahead of the hosts (2.40 vs 0.90). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for Eyüpspor, 1 for Fenerbahçe and 1 shared spoils from 2 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 18 May 2025, ended 1–2 with Fenerbahçe winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Eyüpspor in-play tendencies (52 games, 26 at home): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 84% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 53% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (home games).
Fenerbahçe in-play tendencies (52 games, 26 at away): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 56% of the time; they lead at the break 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 56%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Eyüpspor 50% versus Fenerbahçe 62%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Eyüpspor 48% | Fenerbahçe 67%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Eyüpspor 0.97 xG and Fenerbahçe 1.83 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Eyüpspor attack 0.845 / defence 0.980 | Fenerbahçe attack 1.425 / defence 0.905. League average goals — home 1.272 / away 1.314. Fenerbahçe have an above-average attack strength of 1.425 — the away xG of 1.83 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 52 Eyüpspor games / 52 Fenerbahçe games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Eyüpspor 16% | Draw 29% | Fenerbahçe 54%. Fair-value odds: Eyüpspor 6.25 | Draw 3.45 | Fenerbahçe 1.85. Fenerbahçe hold a narrow Poisson edge at 54% — the draw (29%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 53% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 2.81. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 53%/47% — the total xG of 2.81 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Fenerbahçe at 54% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Fenerbahçe offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.81 combined xG gives a 53% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 55% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Eyüpspor 50% | Fenerbahçe 70% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Eyüpspor vs Fenerbahçe | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 17 | Venue: Recep Tayyip Erdoğan Stadyumu • Kick-off: Saturday 20 Dec 2025, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Eyüpspor 16% | Draw 29% | Fenerbahçe 54% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 53% | BTTS 55% | xG Eyüpspor 0.97 / Fenerbahçe 1.83 • Poisson strength factors: Eyüpspor attack 0.845 / def 0.980 | Fenerbahçe attack 1.425 / def 0.905 | league avg home 1.272 / away 1.314 • Poisson stance: Fenerbahçe (54%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.97
Eyüpspor xG
Expected Goals
1.83
Fenerbahçe xG
55%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
53%
Over 2.5
31%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Eyüpspor vs Fenerbahçe kick off?
Eyüpspor vs Fenerbahçe kicked off at 14:00 on Saturday 20 December 2025 at Recep Tayyip Erdoğan Stadyumu.
What was the final score in Eyüpspor vs Fenerbahçe?
Eyüpspor 0 - 3 Fenerbahçe.
Where is Eyüpspor vs Fenerbahçe being played?
The match is being played at Recep Tayyip Erdoğan Stadyumu.
What competition is Eyüpspor vs Fenerbahçe part of?
Eyüpspor vs Fenerbahçe is a Regular Season - 17 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Eyüpspor vs Fenerbahçe?
Our statistical model gives Eyüpspor a 16% chance of winning, Fenerbahçe a 54% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Fenerbahçe the favourite.
Will both teams score in Eyüpspor vs Fenerbahçe?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both Eyüpspor and Fenerbahçe will score (BTTS).
Will Eyüpspor vs Fenerbahçe have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 53%.
What is the head-to-head record between Eyüpspor and Fenerbahçe?
Record (2 meetings): Eyüpspor 0W | Draws 1 | Fenerbahçe 1W.
What form are Eyüpspor and Fenerbahçe in?
Eyüpspor (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-D-W-D-L. Fenerbahçe (all comps): 7W-3D-0L in 10 | 2.40 PPG | GF 2.60 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-W-D-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Eyüpspor's attack rating (0.84) and Fenerbahçe's defence rating (0.91), the model arrives at 0.97 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Fenerbahçe's attack versus Eyüpspor's defence, projects 1.83 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 52/52 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.2%. Close behind: 0-2 (10.2%), 1-2 (9.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Fenerbahçe Win
16%
6.08
29%
3.43
54%
1.84
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
11.1%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
10.8%
Draw
0 – 2
10.2%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.97
Eyüpspor xG
Total xG
2.81
1.83
Fenerbahçe xG
6.08
16%
Home win
3.43
29%
Draw
1.84
54%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
53%
Over 2.5
1.89
47%
Under 2.5
2.13
31%
Over 3.5
3.23
69%
Under 3.5
1.45
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.80
45%
BTTS No
2.25
Clean Sheet
16%
6.27
38%
2.64
Win to Nil
3%
38.06
21%
4.86
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.0 | 11.1 | 10.2 | 6.2 | 2.9 | 1.0 |
| 1 | 5.9 | 10.8 | 9.9 | 6.0 | 2.8 | 1.0 |
| 2 | 2.9 | 5.2 | 4.8 | 2.9 | 1.3 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 0.9 | 1.7 | 1.6 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | – | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Eyüpspor vs Fenerbahçe?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.2%.
How many goals are Eyüpspor and Fenerbahçe expected to score?
The model projects 0.97 expected goals for Eyüpspor and 1.83 for Fenerbahçe, a combined total of 2.81.
How confident is the prediction model for Eyüpspor vs Fenerbahçe?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 54%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Eyüpspor come into this having played 52 games, going 18W 12D 22L for 1.27 points per game. Their last five reads L-D-W-D-L. The sample for Eyüpspor is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Fenerbahçe sit at 2.31 PPG from 52 outings (36W 12D 4L), a run that reads W-W-D-D-W across their last five. The sample for Fenerbahçe is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Fenerbahçe carry the stronger recent form of the two, 1.04 PPG clear of Eyüpspor — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
Eyüpspor's home form reads 12W 6D 8L across 26 games on their own ground, a 1.62 PPG return.
Away from home, Fenerbahçe have taken 2.15 points per game from 26 outings (16W 8D 2L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Fenerbahçe come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Eyüpspor are averaging 1.19 goals scored and 1.31 conceded per game recently; Fenerbahçe are on 2.42 scored and 1.02 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Fenerbahçe in 62%.
Last 52 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Eyüpspor
Blended
Fenerbahçe
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Eyüpspor and Fenerbahçe in coming into this match?
Eyüpspor have gone 18W 12D 22L in their last 52 games (1.27 PPG), while Fenerbahçe have gone 36W 12D 4L in their last 52 (2.31 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Eyüpspor at home or Fenerbahçe away?
Fenerbahçe's away record (2.15 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Eyüpspor at home: 1.62 PPG; Fenerbahçe away: 2.15 PPG.
Have Eyüpspor or Fenerbahçe been keeping clean sheets recently?
Eyüpspor have kept a clean sheet in 27% of their recent games, Fenerbahçe in 35%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to December 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. They last met on 17 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 20 Dec 2025, when Fenerbahçe won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Eyüpspor's record when hosting Fenerbahçe specifically: 0W 1D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
0
Eyüpspor
2
Draws
2
Fenerbahçe
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Eyüpspor and Fenerbahçe?
From 4 meetings on record, Eyüpspor have won 0, Fenerbahçe have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Eyüpspor and Fenerbahçe last play each other?
They last met on 17 May 2026, when Fenerbahçe 3-3 Eyüpspor.
Who has won more matches between Eyüpspor and Fenerbahçe?
Fenerbahçe have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Eyüpspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 35% of the time.
Fenerbahçe are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Eyüpspor 54%, Fenerbahçe 62% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 54% (Eyüpspor) and 62% (Fenerbahçe). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 27% and 62% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Eyüpspor keep a clean sheet in 35% of their matches; Fenerbahçe in 35%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Eyüpspor home games / Fenerbahçe away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Eyüpspor play Fenerbahçe?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 54% of Eyüpspor's games and 62% of Fenerbahçe's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Eyüpspor vs Fenerbahçe usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 54% of Eyüpspor's matches and 62% of Fenerbahçe's.
Do Eyüpspor and Fenerbahçe tend to score early?
Eyüpspor have had a goal before half-time in 65% of their recent matches, Fenerbahçe in 73% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Fenerbahçe run riot with a 0-3 hammering of Eyüpspor.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Fenerbahçe beat Eyüpspor 0-3 at Recep Tayyip Erdoğan Stadyumu, Regular Season - 17, in the Süper Lig. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Eyüpspor 0.97 xG and Fenerbahçe 1.83 xG, a combined 2.81. The scoreboard read 0-3 for 3 actual goals. Eyüpspor fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Fenerbahçe outscored their 1.83 projection by 1.2. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Eyüpspor attack 0.84 / defence 0.98 against Fenerbahçe attack 1.43 / defence 0.91, drawn from 52/52 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Eyüpspor 16% | Draw 29% | Fenerbahçe 54%, with Fenerbahçe to win its most likely call at 54%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Eyüpspor 48%, Fenerbahçe 67%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Eyüpspor's trading profile (52 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 29% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Fenerbahçe's trading profile (52 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Fenerbahçe arrived the stronger side — 2.31 PPG against 1.27. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Eyüpspor (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.54 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.27 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Fenerbahçe (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.08 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.