Beşiktaş 5-1 Hatayspor – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates Beşiktaş at 57% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Beşiktaş vs Hatayspor encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Hatayspor make the trip to Tüpraş Stadyumu to face Beşiktaş in Süper Lig, Regular Season - 33. The match kicks off on Friday 25 April 2025 at 18:00 UTC.
Form
Beşiktaş (all games): 5W 2D 3L across 10 Süper Lig fixtures this term — 1.70 PPG. Last five: L W D L D. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
In front of their own supporters this season, Beşiktaş have posted 5W 2D 3L at Tüpraş Stadyumu — 1.70 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Hatayspor's overall Süper Lig record this term: 3W 0D 7L from 10 games (0.90 PPG). Last five: W L L L L. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 2.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
Hatayspor's away record: 1W 1D 8L from 10 road trips in Süper Lig this season (0.40 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 2.40 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.40 is notably below their overall 0.90 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Form favours the hosts. Beşiktaş's 1.70 PPG return is 0.80 points per game ahead of Hatayspor's 0.90 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Beşiktaş lead 2W to 2W over the last 7 encounters, with 3 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
The 7 previous meetings have averaged 2.6 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 2 Dec 2024, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Data
Beşiktaş goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (68 games, 33 at home): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 53% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (home games).
Hatayspor goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (68 games, 33 at away): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 59% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (away games); they fail to score in 35% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Beşiktaş 56% versus Hatayspor 59%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Beşiktaş 44% | Hatayspor 52%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Beşiktaş 1.93 xG and Hatayspor 1.07 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Beşiktaş attack 0.921 / defence 0.991 | Hatayspor attack 0.926 / defence 1.322. League average goals — home 1.584 / away 1.162. Hatayspor bring a strong defensive rating of 1.322 — this is suppressing Beşiktaş's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 68 Beşiktaş games / 68 Hatayspor games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Beşiktaş 57% | Draw 22% | Hatayspor 21%. Fair-value odds: Beşiktaş 1.75 | Draw 4.55 | Hatayspor 4.76. The model has a clear lean to Beşiktaş (57%) — a 36pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 58% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 3.00. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 58% — the 3.00 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Beşiktaş as the most likely outcome at 57% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 22% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.00 combined xG gives a 58% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 56%. Form rates corroborate: Beşiktaş 60% | Hatayspor 50% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Beşiktaş vs Hatayspor | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 33 | Venue: Tüpraş Stadyumu • Kick-off: Friday 25 Apr 2025, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Beşiktaş 57% | Draw 22% | Hatayspor 21% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 58% | BTTS 56% | xG Beşiktaş 1.93 / Hatayspor 1.07 • Poisson strength factors: Beşiktaş attack 0.921 / def 0.991 | Hatayspor attack 0.926 / def 1.322 | league avg home 1.584 / away 1.162 • Poisson stance: Beşiktaş (57%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.93
Beşiktaş xG
Expected Goals
1.07
Hatayspor xG
56%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
58%
Over 2.5
35%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Beşiktaş vs Hatayspor kick off?
Beşiktaş vs Hatayspor kicked off at 18:00 on Friday 25 April 2025 at Tüpraş Stadyumu.
What was the final score in Beşiktaş vs Hatayspor?
Beşiktaş 5 - 1 Hatayspor.
Where is Beşiktaş vs Hatayspor being played?
The match is being played at Tüpraş Stadyumu.
What competition is Beşiktaş vs Hatayspor part of?
Beşiktaş vs Hatayspor is a Regular Season - 33 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Beşiktaş vs Hatayspor?
Our statistical model gives Beşiktaş a 57% chance of winning, Hatayspor a 21% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Beşiktaş the favourite.
Will both teams score in Beşiktaş vs Hatayspor?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both Beşiktaş and Hatayspor will score (BTTS).
Will Beşiktaş vs Hatayspor have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 58%.
What is the head-to-head record between Beşiktaş and Hatayspor?
Record (7 meetings): Beşiktaş 2W | Draws 3 | Hatayspor 2W.
What form are Beşiktaş and Hatayspor in?
Beşiktaş (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.00 | L5 L-W-D-L-D. Hatayspor (all comps): 3W-0D-7L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 2.00 | L5 W-L-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Beşiktaş's attack rating (0.92) and Hatayspor's defence rating (1.32), the model arrives at 1.93 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Hatayspor's attack (0.93x) against Beşiktaş's defence (0.99x) — and the away total comes out at 1.07.
These ratings are built from 68/68 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 11.6%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.9%), 2-0 (9.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Beşiktaş Win
57%
1.74
22%
4.55
21%
4.85
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.3%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.9%
Home win
1 – 0
9.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.93
Beşiktaş xG
Total xG
3.00
1.07
Hatayspor xG
1.74
57%
Home win
4.55
22%
Draw
4.85
21%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
58%
Over 2.5
1.72
42%
Under 2.5
2.38
35%
Over 3.5
2.86
65%
Under 3.5
1.54
18%
Over 4.5
5.56
82%
Under 4.5
1.22
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.78
44%
BTTS No
2.28
Clean Sheet
34%
2.91
15%
6.88
Win to Nil
20%
5.06
3%
33.38
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.0 | 5.3 | 2.8 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.6 | 10.3 | 5.5 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.3 | 9.9 | 5.3 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.0 | 6.4 | 3.4 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.9 | 3.1 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 1.1 | 1.2 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Beşiktaş vs Hatayspor?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.6%.
How many goals are Beşiktaş and Hatayspor expected to score?
The model projects 1.93 expected goals for Beşiktaş and 1.07 for Hatayspor, a combined total of 3.00.
How confident is the prediction model for Beşiktaş vs Hatayspor?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 57%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Beşiktaş come into this having played 68 games, going 29W 18D 21L for 1.54 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-D-L-D.
On the other side, Hatayspor sit at 0.88 PPG from 68 outings (13W 21D 34L), a run that reads W-L-L-L-L across their last five.
Beşiktaş carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.66 PPG clear of Hatayspor — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
How They Fare by Venue
Beşiktaş's home form reads 19W 5D 9L across 33 games on their own ground, a 1.88 PPG return.
Away from home, Hatayspor have taken 0.55 points per game from 33 outings (3W 9D 21L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Beşiktaş come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Beşiktaş are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.15 conceded per game recently; Hatayspor are on 1.13 scored and 1.60 conceded.
Last 68 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Beşiktaş
Current Season
Hatayspor
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Beşiktaş and Hatayspor in coming into this match?
Beşiktaş have gone 29W 18D 21L in their last 68 games (1.54 PPG), while Hatayspor have gone 13W 21D 34L in their last 68 (0.88 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Beşiktaş at home or Hatayspor away?
Beşiktaş's home record (1.88 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Beşiktaş at home: 1.88 PPG; Hatayspor away: 0.55 PPG.
Have Beşiktaş or Hatayspor been keeping clean sheets recently?
Beşiktaş have kept a clean sheet in 34% of their recent games, Hatayspor in 16%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 8 times that we have on record, stretching back to October 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. It has been a while since the last meeting — 25 April 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Beşiktaş won 5-1 on 25 Apr 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Beşiktaş have gone 2W 2D 0L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Hatayspor — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
3
Beşiktaş
3
Draws
2
Hatayspor
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Beşiktaş and Hatayspor?
From 8 meetings on record, Beşiktaş have won 3, Hatayspor have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Beşiktaş and Hatayspor last play each other?
They last met on 25 April 2025, when Beşiktaş 5-1 Hatayspor.
Who has won more matches between Beşiktaş and Hatayspor?
Beşiktaş have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Beşiktaş are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 39% of the time.
Hatayspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Beşiktaş 52%, Hatayspor 48% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 48% (Beşiktaş) and 48% (Hatayspor).
On the defensive side: Beşiktaş keep a clean sheet in 42% of their matches; Hatayspor in 48%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Beşiktaş home games / Hatayspor away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Beşiktaş play Hatayspor?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 52% of Beşiktaş's recent matches and 48% of Hatayspor's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Beşiktaş vs Hatayspor usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 48% of Beşiktaş's recent games and 48% of Hatayspor's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Beşiktaş and Hatayspor tend to score early?
Beşiktaş have had a goal before half-time in 73% of their recent matches, Hatayspor in 70% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Beşiktaş run riot with a 5-1 hammering of Hatayspor.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Beşiktaş beat Hatayspor 5-1 at Tüpraş Stadyumu, Regular Season - 33, in the Süper Lig. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Beşiktaş 1.93 xG and Hatayspor 1.07 xG, a combined 3.00. The scoreboard read 5-1 for 6 actual goals. Beşiktaş beat their projection by 3.1 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Beşiktaş attack 0.92 / defence 0.99 against Hatayspor attack 0.93 / defence 1.32, drawn from 68/68 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Beşiktaş 57% | Draw 22% | Hatayspor 21%, with Beşiktaş to win its most likely call at 57%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 58%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. Over 3.5 was 35% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Beşiktaş 44%, Hatayspor 52%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Beşiktaş's trading profile (68 games, 33 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and conceded here.
Hatayspor's trading profile (68 games, 33 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Beşiktaş arrived the stronger side — 1.54 PPG against 0.88. Form held, and they took the win. Beşiktaş (home/away splits) scored 5 against a 1.58 average — above their attacking norm. Hatayspor (home/away splits) shipped 5 against a 1.76 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.