Beşiktaş 2-1 Eyüpspor – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Beşiktaş at 48% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Beşiktaş vs Eyüpspor encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Süper Lig encounter, Regular Season - 2 sees Eyüpspor travel to Tupras Stadium to take on Beşiktaş. The game is scheduled for Sunday 17 August 2025, 19:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Süper Lig games this season, Beşiktaş have gone 5W 3D 2L from 10 outings — a 1.80 PPG return. Last five: W W D L W. They are averaging 2.00 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Beşiktaş haven't played a Süper Lig game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
At home at Tupras Stadium, Beşiktaş have gone 6W 1D 3L this season (10 games, 1.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Eyüpspor — All Games: 3W 0D 7L from 10 Süper Lig fixtures this season — 0.90 PPG. Last five: L L L W L. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 2.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.20 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Eyüpspor have played only a handful of Süper Lig games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Eyüpspor's form when playing away from home: 3W 1D 6L across 10 road games this term (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game.
Beşiktaş are in the better shape of the two on current Süper Lig data — 0.90 PPG ahead (1.80 vs 0.90). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 2 previous meetings, Beşiktaş have won 2, Eyüpspor 0, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 2 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.5 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 21 Feb 2025, ended 3–1 with Beşiktaş winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.5 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Beşiktaş trading profile (36 games, 17 at home): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 65% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (home games).
Eyüpspor trading profile (36 games, 17 at away): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Beşiktaş 64% versus Eyüpspor 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Beşiktaş 44% | Eyüpspor 58%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Beşiktaş 1.61 xG and Eyüpspor 1.14 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Beşiktaş attack 1.126 / defence 0.999 | Eyüpspor attack 0.906 / defence 0.998. League average goals — home 1.430 / away 1.260. Data: 36 Beşiktaş games / 37 Eyüpspor games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Beşiktaş 48% | Draw 25% | Eyüpspor 27%. Fair-value odds: Beşiktaş 2.08 | Draw 4.00 | Eyüpspor 3.70. Beşiktaş hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 2.75. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.75 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Beşiktaş as the most likely outcome at 48% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Beşiktaş offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.75 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 52% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 54%. Form rates corroborate: Beşiktaş 70% | Eyüpspor 40% BTTS from recent games.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (36 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Beşiktaş vs Eyüpspor | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 2 | Venue: Tupras Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 17 Aug 2025, 19:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Beşiktaş 48% | Draw 25% | Eyüpspor 27% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 52% | BTTS 54% | xG Beşiktaş 1.61 / Eyüpspor 1.14 • Poisson strength factors: Beşiktaş attack 1.126 / def 0.999 | Eyüpspor attack 0.906 / def 0.998 | league avg home 1.430 / away 1.260 • Poisson stance: Beşiktaş (48%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.61
Beşiktaş xG
Expected Goals
1.14
Eyüpspor xG
54%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
52%
Over 2.5
30%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Beşiktaş vs Eyüpspor kick off?
Beşiktaş vs Eyüpspor kicked off at 19:30 on Sunday 17 August 2025 at Tupras Stadium.
What was the final score in Beşiktaş vs Eyüpspor?
Beşiktaş 2 - 1 Eyüpspor.
Where is Beşiktaş vs Eyüpspor being played?
The match is being played at Tupras Stadium.
What competition is Beşiktaş vs Eyüpspor part of?
Beşiktaş vs Eyüpspor is a Regular Season - 2 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Beşiktaş vs Eyüpspor?
Our statistical model gives Beşiktaş a 48% chance of winning, Eyüpspor a 27% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Beşiktaş the favourite.
Will both teams score in Beşiktaş vs Eyüpspor?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both Beşiktaş and Eyüpspor will score (BTTS).
Will Beşiktaş vs Eyüpspor have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 52%.
What is the head-to-head record between Beşiktaş and Eyüpspor?
Record (2 meetings): Beşiktaş 2W | Draws 0 | Eyüpspor 0W.
What form are Beşiktaş and Eyüpspor in?
Beşiktaş (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-W-D-L-W. Eyüpspor (all comps): 3W-0D-7L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 2.20 | L5 L-L-L-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Beşiktaş's attacking strength (1.13x league average) is weighed against Eyüpspor's defensive record (1.00x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.61. The same calculation in reverse, Eyüpspor's attack versus Beşiktaş's defence, projects 1.14 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (36/37 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.3%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.4%), 1-0 (8.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Beşiktaş Win
48%
2.08
25%
4.04
27%
3.70
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.8%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.3%
Home win
2 – 1
9.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.61
Beşiktaş xG
Total xG
2.75
1.14
Eyüpspor xG
2.08
48%
Home win
4.04
25%
Draw
3.70
27%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
52%
Over 2.5
1.92
48%
Under 2.5
2.08
30%
Over 3.5
3.33
70%
Under 3.5
1.43
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.84
46%
BTTS No
2.19
Clean Sheet
32%
3.13
20%
4.98
Win to Nil
15%
6.49
5%
18.42
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.4 | 7.3 | 4.2 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.3 | 11.8 | 6.7 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.3 | 9.4 | 5.4 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.4 | 5.1 | 2.9 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.8 | 2.0 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Beşiktaş vs Eyüpspor?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.3%.
How many goals are Beşiktaş and Eyüpspor expected to score?
The model projects 1.61 expected goals for Beşiktaş and 1.14 for Eyüpspor, a combined total of 2.75.
How confident is the prediction model for Beşiktaş vs Eyüpspor?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 36 outings, Beşiktaş have picked up 1.72 PPG on a 17W 11D 8L record — W-W-D-L-W across the most recent five. Beşiktaş haven't played enough this season for a current-season-only sample, so this includes results carried over from last season.
Eyüpspor's form line: 15W 7D 14L from 36 games, 1.44 PPG, last five L-L-L-W-L. It's still early in the season for Eyüpspor, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: Beşiktaş on 1.72 PPG, Eyüpspor on 1.44. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Beşiktaş have posted 1.88 PPG from 17 outings (10W 2D 5L).
On the road, Eyüpspor have gone 5W 4D 8L from 17 away games — 1.12 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Beşiktaş come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Beşiktaş are averaging 1.64 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game recently; Eyüpspor are on 1.44 scored and 1.39 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Beşiktaş have seen both teams score in 64% of their recent games.
Last 36 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Beşiktaş
Pre-Season
Eyüpspor
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Beşiktaş and Eyüpspor in coming into this match?
Beşiktaş have gone 17W 11D 8L in their last 36 games (1.72 PPG), while Eyüpspor have gone 15W 7D 14L in their last 36 (1.44 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Beşiktaş at home or Eyüpspor away?
Beşiktaş's home record (1.88 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Beşiktaş at home: 1.88 PPG; Eyüpspor away: 1.12 PPG.
Have Beşiktaş or Eyüpspor been keeping clean sheets recently?
Beşiktaş have kept a clean sheet in 31% of their recent games, Eyüpspor in 31%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
5 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. The two were last together as recently as 16 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
Beşiktaş's record when hosting Eyüpspor specifically: 3W 0D 0L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 5 Meetings
4
Beşiktaş
1
Draws
0
Eyüpspor
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Beşiktaş and Eyüpspor?
From 5 meetings on record, Beşiktaş have won 4, Eyüpspor have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Beşiktaş and Eyüpspor last play each other?
They last met on 16 August 2026, when Beşiktaş 1-0 Eyüpspor.
Who has won more matches between Beşiktaş and Eyüpspor?
Beşiktaş have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 5 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Beşiktaş are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 47% of the time.
Eyüpspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 41% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Beşiktaş 65%, Eyüpspor 53% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 59% (Beşiktaş) and 47% (Eyüpspor).
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Beşiktaş home games / Eyüpspor away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Beşiktaş play Eyüpspor?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 65% of Beşiktaş's games and 53% of Eyüpspor's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Beşiktaş vs Eyüpspor usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 59% of Beşiktaş's recent games and 47% of Eyüpspor's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Beşiktaş and Eyüpspor tend to score early?
Beşiktaş have had a goal before half-time in 76% of their recent matches, Eyüpspor in 65% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Beşiktaş edge out Eyüpspor 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Beşiktaş beat Eyüpspor 2-1 at Tupras Stadium, Regular Season - 2, in the Süper Lig. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Beşiktaş 1.61 xG and Eyüpspor 1.14 xG, a combined 2.75. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Beşiktaş attack 1.13 / defence 1.00 against Eyüpspor attack 0.91 / defence 1.00, drawn from 36/37 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Beşiktaş 48% | Draw 25% | Eyüpspor 27%, with Beşiktaş to win its most likely call at 48%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Beşiktaş 44%, Eyüpspor 58%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Beşiktaş's trading profile (36 games, 17 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.
Eyüpspor's trading profile (36 games, 17 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Beşiktaş 1.72 PPG, Eyüpspor 1.44 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Beşiktaş win broke the near-deadlock.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.