Beşiktaş 2-1 Eyüpspor – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Beşiktaş at 52%, yet other data sources diverge — this Beşiktaş vs Eyüpspor fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Süper Lig encounter, Regular Season - 6 sees Eyüpspor travel to Tüpraş Stadyumu to take on Beşiktaş. The game is scheduled for Sunday 22 September 2024, 18:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Süper Lig games this season, Beşiktaş have gone 5W 3D 2L from 10 outings — a 1.80 PPG return. Last five: L W W W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 1.20 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Beşiktaş have played only a handful of Süper Lig games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
At home at Tüpraş Stadyumu, Beşiktaş have gone 6W 2D 2L this season (10 games, 2.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Eyüpspor — All Games: 2W 3D 0L from 5 Süper Lig fixtures this season — 1.80 PPG. Last five: D W W D D. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 0.80. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 2 clean sheets in 5 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Eyüpspor have played only a handful of Süper Lig games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Eyüpspor's form when playing away from home: 1W 2D 0L across 3 road games this term (1.67 PPG). Away from home they average 1.33 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 67% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Beşiktaş 1.80 PPG, Eyüpspor 1.80 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
In-Play Data
Beşiktaş trading profile (5 games): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures; they lead at the break 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time.
Eyüpspor trading profile (5 games): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games; Over 3.5 in 40%; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Beşiktaş 60% and Eyüpspor 60% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Beşiktaş 40% | Eyüpspor 40%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Beşiktaş 1.80 xG and Eyüpspor 1.12 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Beşiktaş attack 1.255 / defence 0.957 | Eyüpspor attack 0.937 / defence 1.013. League average goals — home 1.417 / away 1.252. Beşiktaş carry an above-average attack strength of 1.255 — their λ of 1.80 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 42 Beşiktaş games / 5 Eyüpspor games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Beşiktaş 52% | Draw 25% | Eyüpspor 22%. Fair-value odds: Beşiktaş 1.92 | Draw 4.00 | Eyüpspor 4.55. Beşiktaş hold a narrow Poisson edge at 52% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 56% | BTTS probability 57% | Total xG 2.92. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 56% — the 2.92 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 57% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Beşiktaş as the most likely outcome at 52% — moderate model lean. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Beşiktaş offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.92 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 56% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 57%. Form rates corroborate: Beşiktaş 50% | Eyüpspor 67% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Beşiktaş vs Eyüpspor | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 6 | Venue: Tüpraş Stadyumu • Kick-off: Sunday 22 Sep 2024, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Beşiktaş 52% | Draw 25% | Eyüpspor 22% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 56% | BTTS 57% | xG Beşiktaş 1.80 / Eyüpspor 1.12 • Poisson strength factors: Beşiktaş attack 1.255 / def 0.957 | Eyüpspor attack 0.937 / def 1.013 | league avg home 1.417 / away 1.252 • Poisson stance: Beşiktaş (52%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.80
Beşiktaş xG
Expected Goals
1.12
Eyüpspor xG
57%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
56%
Over 2.5
34%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Beşiktaş vs Eyüpspor kick off?
Beşiktaş vs Eyüpspor kicked off at 18:00 on Sunday 22 September 2024 at Tüpraş Stadyumu.
What was the final score in Beşiktaş vs Eyüpspor?
Beşiktaş 2 - 1 Eyüpspor.
Where is Beşiktaş vs Eyüpspor being played?
The match is being played at Tüpraş Stadyumu.
What competition is Beşiktaş vs Eyüpspor part of?
Beşiktaş vs Eyüpspor is a Regular Season - 6 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Beşiktaş vs Eyüpspor?
Our statistical model gives Beşiktaş a 52% chance of winning, Eyüpspor a 22% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Beşiktaş the favourite.
Will both teams score in Beşiktaş vs Eyüpspor?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both Beşiktaş and Eyüpspor will score (BTTS).
Will Beşiktaş vs Eyüpspor have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 56%.
What is the head-to-head record between Beşiktaş and Eyüpspor?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Beşiktaş and Eyüpspor in?
Beşiktaş (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-W-W-W-D. Eyüpspor (all comps): 2W-3D-0L in 5 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 0.80 | L5 D-W-W-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Beşiktaş's attacking strength (1.25x league average) is weighed against Eyüpspor's defensive record (1.01x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.80. The same calculation in reverse, Eyüpspor's attack versus Beşiktaş's defence, projects 1.12 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 42/5 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.3%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.8%), 2-0 (8.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Beşiktaş Win
52%
1.92
25%
3.94
22%
4.45
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.9%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.8%
Home win
1 – 0
9.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.80
Beşiktaş xG
Total xG
2.92
1.12
Eyüpspor xG
1.92
52%
Home win
3.94
25%
Draw
4.45
22%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
56%
Over 2.5
1.79
44%
Under 2.5
2.27
34%
Over 3.5
2.94
66%
Under 3.5
1.52
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.74
43%
BTTS No
2.35
Clean Sheet
33%
3.07
16%
6.06
Win to Nil
17%
5.89
4%
27.00
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.4 | 6.0 | 3.4 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.7 | 10.9 | 6.1 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.7 | 9.8 | 5.5 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.2 | 5.9 | 3.3 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.4 | 2.6 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.9 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Beşiktaş vs Eyüpspor?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.3%.
How many goals are Beşiktaş and Eyüpspor expected to score?
The model projects 1.80 expected goals for Beşiktaş and 1.12 for Eyüpspor, a combined total of 2.92.
How confident is the prediction model for Beşiktaş vs Eyüpspor?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 52%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 5 outings, Beşiktaş have picked up 2.00 PPG on a 3W 1D 1L record — L-W-W-W-D across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Beşiktaş, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Eyüpspor's form line: 2W 3D 0L from 5 games, 1.80 PPG, last five D-W-W-D-D. It's still early in the season for Eyüpspor, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: Beşiktaş on 2.00 PPG, Eyüpspor on 1.80. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Goals in Recent Form
Beşiktaş are averaging 2.00 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game recently; Eyüpspor are on 1.60 scored and 0.80 conceded. Beşiktaş's scoring rate against Eyüpspor's tighter defensive record is one of the more interesting match-ups in the goals markets here.
On BTTS specifically: Beşiktaş have seen both teams score in 60% of their recent games; Eyüpspor in 60%.
Defensively: Beşiktaş have kept a clean sheet in 40% of their games; Eyüpspor in 40% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 5 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Beşiktaş
Early Season
Eyüpspor
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Beşiktaş and Eyüpspor in coming into this match?
Beşiktaş have gone 3W 1D 1L in their last 5 games (2.00 PPG), while Eyüpspor have gone 2W 3D 0L in their last 5 (1.80 PPG).
Have Beşiktaş or Eyüpspor been keeping clean sheets recently?
Beşiktaş have kept a clean sheet in 40% of their recent games, Eyüpspor in 40%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. They last met on 26 January 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Beşiktaş's record when hosting Eyüpspor specifically: 2W 0D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
3
Beşiktaş
1
Draws
0
Eyüpspor
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Beşiktaş and Eyüpspor?
From 4 meetings on record, Beşiktaş have won 3, Eyüpspor have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Beşiktaş and Eyüpspor last play each other?
They last met on 26 January 2026, when Eyüpspor 2-2 Beşiktaş.
Who has won more matches between Beşiktaş and Eyüpspor?
Beşiktaş have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Beşiktaş are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 60% of the time.
Eyüpspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 20% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Beşiktaş 60%, Eyüpspor 60% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 40% (Beşiktaş) and 40% (Eyüpspor).
On the defensive side: Beşiktaş keep a clean sheet in 40% of their matches; Eyüpspor in 40%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Beşiktaş home games / Eyüpspor away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Beşiktaş play Eyüpspor?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 60% of Beşiktaş's games and 60% of Eyüpspor's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Beşiktaş vs Eyüpspor usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 40% of Beşiktaş's recent games and 40% of Eyüpspor's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Beşiktaş and Eyüpspor tend to score early?
Beşiktaş have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, Eyüpspor in 60% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Beşiktaş edge out Eyüpspor 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Beşiktaş beat Eyüpspor 2-1 at Tüpraş Stadyumu, Regular Season - 6, in the Süper Lig. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Beşiktaş 1.80 xG and Eyüpspor 1.12 xG, a combined 2.92. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Beşiktaş attack 1.25 / defence 0.96 against Eyüpspor attack 0.94 / defence 1.01, drawn from 42/5 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Beşiktaş 52% | Draw 25% | Eyüpspor 22%, with Beşiktaş to win its most likely call at 52%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 56%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 40% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Beşiktaş 40%, Eyüpspor 40%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Beşiktaş's trading profile (5 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and conceded here.
Eyüpspor's trading profile (5 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Beşiktaş 2.00 PPG, Eyüpspor 1.80 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Beşiktaş win broke the near-deadlock. Eyüpspor shipped 2 against a 0.80 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.