Beşiktaş 2-2 Başakşehir – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Başakşehir at 40%, yet other data sources diverge — this Beşiktaş vs Başakşehir fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Süper Lig encounter, Regular Season - 28 sees Başakşehir travel to Vodafone Park to take on Beşiktaş. The game is scheduled for Monday 7 March 2022, 17:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Beşiktaş stand at 5W 4D 1L from 10 Süper Lig matches — 1.90 PPG. Last five: D D D W W. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 0.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Beşiktaş, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Beşiktaş have posted 6W 2D 2L at Vodafone Park — 2.00 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Across all Süper Lig games this season, Başakşehir have recorded 5W 2D 3L from 10 outings — 1.70 PPG. Last five: W W W W L. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 0.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Başakşehir, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Başakşehir have gone 5W 3D 2L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.80 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Beşiktaş at 1.90 PPG versus Başakşehir's 1.70. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 1 previous meetings, Beşiktaş have won 0, Başakşehir 1, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 1 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 5.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 15 Oct 2021, ended 2–3 with Başakşehir winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 5.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Beşiktaş in-play and half-time data (27 games, 13 at home): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 69% of games (home games).
Başakşehir in-play and half-time data (27 games, 13 at away): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Beşiktaş 56% versus Başakşehir 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Beşiktaş 56% | Başakşehir 56%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Beşiktaş 0.90 xG and Başakşehir 1.13 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Beşiktaş attack 0.944 / defence 1.094 | Başakşehir attack 0.875 / defence 0.804. League average goals — home 1.188 / away 1.178. Data: 27 Beşiktaş games / 27 Başakşehir games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Beşiktaş 28% | Draw 32% | Başakşehir 40%. Fair-value odds: Beşiktaş 3.57 | Draw 3.12 | Başakşehir 2.50. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 33% | BTTS probability 41% | Total xG 2.03. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 67% probability — total xG of 2.03 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 41% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Başakşehir as the most likely outcome at 40% — marginal model lean. With a 32% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Başakşehir offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.03 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 33% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 41%. Form rates are neutral: Beşiktaş 60% | Başakşehir 50%.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Beşiktaş vs Başakşehir | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 28 | Venue: Vodafone Park • Kick-off: Monday 7 Mar 2022, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Beşiktaş 28% | Draw 32% | Başakşehir 40% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 33% | BTTS 41% | xG Beşiktaş 0.90 / Başakşehir 1.13 • Poisson strength factors: Beşiktaş attack 0.944 / def 1.094 | Başakşehir attack 0.875 / def 0.804 | league avg home 1.188 / away 1.178 • Poisson stance: Başakşehir (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.90
Beşiktaş xG
Expected Goals
1.13
Başakşehir xG
41%
BTTS
61%
Over 1.5
33%
Over 2.5
15%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Beşiktaş vs Başakşehir kick off?
Beşiktaş vs Başakşehir kicked off at 17:00 on Monday 7 March 2022 at Vodafone Park.
What was the final score in Beşiktaş vs Başakşehir?
Beşiktaş 2 - 2 Başakşehir.
Where is Beşiktaş vs Başakşehir being played?
The match is being played at Vodafone Park.
What competition is Beşiktaş vs Başakşehir part of?
Beşiktaş vs Başakşehir is a Regular Season - 28 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Beşiktaş vs Başakşehir?
Our statistical model gives Beşiktaş a 28% chance of winning, Başakşehir a 40% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Başakşehir the favourite.
Will both teams score in Beşiktaş vs Başakşehir?
Our model estimates a 41% probability that both Beşiktaş and Başakşehir will score (BTTS).
Will Beşiktaş vs Başakşehir have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 33%.
What is the head-to-head record between Beşiktaş and Başakşehir?
Record (1 meetings): Beşiktaş 0W | Draws 0 | Başakşehir 1W.
What form are Beşiktaş and Başakşehir in?
Beşiktaş (all comps): 5W-4D-1L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 0.80 | L5 D-D-D-W-W. Başakşehir (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-W-W-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Beşiktaş's attack at 0.94x the league average against Başakşehir's defence at 0.80x — combine the two and it projects 0.90 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Başakşehir's attack versus Beşiktaş's defence, projects 1.13 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 27/27 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 15.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (14.9%), 0-1 (13.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 43% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Başakşehir Win
28%
3.52
32%
3.17
40%
2.49
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
14.8%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.4%
Draw
0 – 0
13.2%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.90
Beşiktaş xG
Total xG
2.03
1.13
Başakşehir xG
3.52
28%
Home win
3.17
32%
Draw
2.49
40%
Away win
Goals Markets
60%
Over 1.5
1.67
40%
Under 1.5
2.50
33%
Over 2.5
3.03
67%
Under 2.5
1.49
15%
Over 3.5
6.67
85%
Under 3.5
1.18
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
41%
BTTS Yes
2.45
59%
BTTS No
1.69
Clean Sheet
32%
3.09
41%
2.46
Win to Nil
9%
10.88
16%
6.14
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 13.2 | 14.8 | 8.4 | 3.1 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.9 | 13.4 | 7.5 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 5.3 | 6.0 | 3.4 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.6 | 1.8 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Beşiktaş vs Başakşehir?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.1%.
How many goals are Beşiktaş and Başakşehir expected to score?
The model projects 0.90 expected goals for Beşiktaş and 1.13 for Başakşehir, a combined total of 2.03.
How confident is the prediction model for Beşiktaş vs Başakşehir?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 27 outings, Beşiktaş have picked up 1.63 PPG on a 12W 8D 7L record — D-D-D-W-W across the most recent five. The sample for Beşiktaş is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Başakşehir's form line: 14W 4D 9L from 27 games, 1.70 PPG, last five W-W-W-W-L. The sample for Başakşehir is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Beşiktaş on 1.63 PPG, Başakşehir on 1.70. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Beşiktaş have posted 2.23 PPG from 13 outings (9W 2D 2L). That's noticeably better than their 1.63 PPG overall — Beşiktaş are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Başakşehir have gone 5W 3D 5L from 13 away games — 1.38 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Beşiktaş come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Beşiktaş are averaging 1.48 goals scored and 1.26 conceded per game recently; Başakşehir are on 1.44 scored and 0.96 conceded.
Last 27 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Beşiktaş
Blended
Başakşehir
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Beşiktaş and Başakşehir in coming into this match?
Beşiktaş have gone 12W 8D 7L in their last 27 games (1.63 PPG), while Başakşehir have gone 14W 4D 9L in their last 27 (1.70 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Beşiktaş at home or Başakşehir away?
Beşiktaş's home record (2.23 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Beşiktaş at home: 2.23 PPG; Başakşehir away: 1.38 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. They last met on 15 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Beşiktaş have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
Beşiktaş's record when hosting Başakşehir specifically: 2W 1D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Beşiktaş
3
Draws
3
Başakşehir
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Beşiktaş and Başakşehir?
From 10 meetings on record, Beşiktaş have won 4, Başakşehir have won 3, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Beşiktaş and Başakşehir last play each other?
They last met on 15 February 2026, when Başakşehir 2-3 Beşiktaş.
Who has won more matches between Beşiktaş and Başakşehir?
Beşiktaş have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Beşiktaş are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time.
Başakşehir are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 54% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 23% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Beşiktaş 46%, Başakşehir 54% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 69% (Beşiktaş) and 46% (Başakşehir). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 23% and 15% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Beşiktaş keep a clean sheet in 46% of their matches; Başakşehir in 31%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Beşiktaş home games / Başakşehir away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Beşiktaş play Başakşehir?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 46% of Beşiktaş's recent matches and 54% of Başakşehir's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Beşiktaş vs Başakşehir usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 69% of Beşiktaş's matches and 46% of Başakşehir's.
Do Beşiktaş and Başakşehir tend to score early?
Beşiktaş have had a goal before half-time in 77% of their recent matches, Başakşehir in 77% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Beşiktaş and Başakşehir share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Beşiktaş and Başakşehir finished level at 2-2 at Vodafone Park, Regular Season - 28, in the Süper Lig. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Beşiktaş 0.90 xG and Başakşehir 1.13 xG, a combined 2.03. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Beşiktaş beat their projection by 1.1 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Başakşehir outscored their 1.13 projection by 0.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Beşiktaş attack 0.94 / defence 1.09 against Başakşehir attack 0.88 / defence 0.80, drawn from 27/27 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Beşiktaş 28% | Draw 32% | Başakşehir 40%, with Başakşehir to win its most likely call at 40%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 33%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 61% and landed. Over 3.5 was 15% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 41% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Beşiktaş 56%, Başakşehir 56%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Beşiktaş's trading profile (27 games, 13 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.
Başakşehir's trading profile (27 games, 13 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Beşiktaş 1.63 PPG, Başakşehir 1.70 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Beşiktaş (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.08 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Başakşehir (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.