Başakşehir 0-2 Fatih Karagümrük – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Başakşehir at 42%, yet other data sources diverge — this Başakşehir vs Fatih Karagümrük fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Süper Lig clash, Regular Season - 2 as Başakşehir welcome Fatih Karagümrük to Başakşehir Fatih Terim Stadyumu. Kick-off is set for Sunday 20 August 2023 at 17:15 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Başakşehir stand at 5W 2D 3L from 10 Süper Lig matches — 1.70 PPG. Last five: D W W W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 1.10 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Başakşehir have played only a handful of Süper Lig games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Başakşehir's form when playing at home: 7W 1D 2L across 10 games at Başakşehir Fatih Terim Stadyumu this term (2.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Başakşehir Fatih Terim Stadyumu. Their home PPG of 2.20 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.70 — Başakşehir are significantly better at Başakşehir Fatih Terim Stadyumu than their overall form suggests.
Fatih Karagümrük — All Games: 4W 2D 4L from 10 Süper Lig fixtures this season — 1.40 PPG. Last five: L W D W L. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 1.50. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Fatih Karagümrük have played only a handful of Süper Lig games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Fatih Karagümrük away from home this season: 4W 5D 1L from 10 away games — 1.70 PPG on the road. They are averaging 2.00 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Başakşehir 1.70 PPG, Fatih Karagümrük 1.40 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for Başakşehir, 2 for Fatih Karagümrük and 2 shared spoils from 4 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 4 previous meetings have averaged 2.8 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 19 Mar 2023, ended 2–2 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Başakşehir in-play and half-time data (37 games, 18 at home): they score before half-time in 81% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 28% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (home games); they fail to score in 35% of games.
Fatih Karagümrük in-play and half-time data (37 games, 18 at away): they score before half-time in 88% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 72% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 51%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Başakşehir 38% versus Fatih Karagümrük 68%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Başakşehir 40% | Fatih Karagümrük 70%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Başakşehir 1.63 xG and Fatih Karagümrük 1.35 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Başakşehir attack 1.085 / defence 0.890 | Fatih Karagümrük attack 1.161 / defence 1.032. League average goals — home 1.458 / away 1.311. Data: 37 Başakşehir games / 37 Fatih Karagümrük games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Başakşehir 42% | Draw 29% | Fatih Karagümrük 29%. Fair-value odds: Başakşehir 2.38 | Draw 3.45 | Fatih Karagümrük 3.45. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 57% | BTTS probability 62% | Total xG 2.99. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 57% — the 2.99 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 62% reflects that both xG figures (1.63 / 1.35) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Başakşehir at 42% — marginal model lean. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Başakşehir offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.99 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 57% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game and H2H averaging 2.8 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 62% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: Başakşehir 40% | Fatih Karagümrük 60%.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (37 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Başakşehir vs Fatih Karagümrük | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 2 | Venue: Başakşehir Fatih Terim Stadyumu • Kick-off: Sunday 20 Aug 2023, 17:15 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Başakşehir 42% | Draw 29% | Fatih Karagümrük 29% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 57% | BTTS 62% | xG Başakşehir 1.63 / Fatih Karagümrük 1.35 • Poisson strength factors: Başakşehir attack 1.085 / def 0.890 | Fatih Karagümrük attack 1.161 / def 1.032 | league avg home 1.458 / away 1.311 • Poisson stance: Başakşehir (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.63
Başakşehir xG
Expected Goals
1.35
Fatih Karagümrük xG
62%
BTTS
82%
Over 1.5
57%
Over 2.5
35%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Başakşehir vs Fatih Karagümrük kick off?
Başakşehir vs Fatih Karagümrük kicked off at 17:15 on Sunday 20 August 2023 at Başakşehir Fatih Terim Stadyumu.
What was the final score in Başakşehir vs Fatih Karagümrük?
Başakşehir 0 - 2 Fatih Karagümrük.
Where is Başakşehir vs Fatih Karagümrük being played?
The match is being played at Başakşehir Fatih Terim Stadyumu.
What competition is Başakşehir vs Fatih Karagümrük part of?
Başakşehir vs Fatih Karagümrük is a Regular Season - 2 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Başakşehir vs Fatih Karagümrük?
Our statistical model gives Başakşehir a 42% chance of winning, Fatih Karagümrük a 29% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Başakşehir the favourite.
Will both teams score in Başakşehir vs Fatih Karagümrük?
Our model estimates a 62% probability that both Başakşehir and Fatih Karagümrük will score (BTTS).
Will Başakşehir vs Fatih Karagümrük have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 57%.
What is the head-to-head record between Başakşehir and Fatih Karagümrük?
Record (4 meetings): Başakşehir 0W | Draws 2 | Fatih Karagümrük 2W.
What form are Başakşehir and Fatih Karagümrük in?
Başakşehir (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.10 | L5 D-W-W-W-L. Fatih Karagümrük (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-W-D-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Başakşehir's attack rating (1.08) and Fatih Karagümrük's defence rating (1.03), the model arrives at 1.63 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Fatih Karagümrük's attack versus Başakşehir's defence, projects 1.35 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (37/37 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.6%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.1%), 1-2 (7.6%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Başakşehir Win
42%
2.40
29%
3.45
29%
3.40
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.2%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.1%
Home win
1 – 0
8.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.63
Başakşehir xG
Total xG
2.99
1.35
Fatih Karagümrük xG
2.40
42%
Home win
3.45
29%
Draw
3.40
29%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
57%
Over 2.5
1.75
43%
Under 2.5
2.33
35%
Over 3.5
2.86
65%
Under 3.5
1.54
18%
Over 4.5
5.56
82%
Under 4.5
1.22
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
62%
BTTS Yes
1.61
38%
BTTS No
2.64
Clean Sheet
26%
3.87
20%
5.12
Win to Nil
11%
9.31
6%
17.42
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.0 | 6.8 | 4.6 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 8.2 | 11.2 | 7.6 | 3.4 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.7 | 9.1 | 6.2 | 2.8 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 3.7 | 5.0 | 3.4 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.5 | 2.0 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Başakşehir vs Fatih Karagümrük?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.6%.
How many goals are Başakşehir and Fatih Karagümrük expected to score?
The model projects 1.63 expected goals for Başakşehir and 1.35 for Fatih Karagümrük, a combined total of 2.99.
How confident is the prediction model for Başakşehir vs Fatih Karagümrük?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Başakşehir's recent record stands at 18W 8D 11L from 37 games, a 1.68 PPG return, with D-W-W-W-L in the last five. It's still early in the season for Başakşehir, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Fatih Karagümrük, meanwhile, have gone 13W 12D 12L across 37 games — 1.38 PPG, with L-W-D-W-L in their last five. It's still early in the season for Fatih Karagümrük, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: Başakşehir on 1.68 PPG, Fatih Karagümrük on 1.38. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Başakşehir have managed 12W 2D 4L from 18 games — 2.11 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.68 PPG overall — Başakşehir are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Fatih Karagümrük's away record stands at 6W 7D 5L across 18 trips, a 1.39 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Başakşehir come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Başakşehir are averaging 1.46 goals scored and 1.05 conceded per game recently; Fatih Karagümrük are on 2.03 scored and 1.73 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Fatih Karagümrük in 68%.
Defensively: Başakşehir have kept a clean sheet in 35% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 37 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Başakşehir
Early Season
Fatih Karagümrük
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Başakşehir and Fatih Karagümrük in coming into this match?
Başakşehir have gone 18W 8D 11L in their last 37 games (1.68 PPG), while Fatih Karagümrük have gone 13W 12D 12L in their last 37 (1.38 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Başakşehir at home or Fatih Karagümrük away?
Başakşehir's home record (2.11 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Başakşehir at home: 2.11 PPG; Fatih Karagümrük away: 1.39 PPG.
Have Başakşehir or Fatih Karagümrük been keeping clean sheets recently?
Başakşehir have kept a clean sheet in 35% of their recent games, Fatih Karagümrük in 24%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Başakşehir and Fatih Karagümrük runs to 8 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. They last met on 17 January 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: Başakşehir have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
Başakşehir's record when hosting Fatih Karagümrük specifically: 1W 1D 2L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
2
Başakşehir
3
Draws
3
Fatih Karagümrük
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Başakşehir and Fatih Karagümrük?
From 8 meetings on record, Başakşehir have won 2, Fatih Karagümrük have won 3, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Başakşehir and Fatih Karagümrük last play each other?
They last met on 17 January 2026, when Başakşehir 2-1 Fatih Karagümrük.
Who has won more matches between Başakşehir and Fatih Karagümrük?
Fatih Karagümrük have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Başakşehir are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 81% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 62% of the time.
Fatih Karagümrük are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 88% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 19% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Başakşehir 28%, Fatih Karagümrük 67% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 44% (Başakşehir) and 72% (Fatih Karagümrük). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 22% and 56% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Başakşehir keep a clean sheet in 56% of their matches; Fatih Karagümrük in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Başakşehir home games / Fatih Karagümrük away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Başakşehir play Fatih Karagümrük?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 28% of Başakşehir's recent matches and 67% of Fatih Karagümrük's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Başakşehir vs Fatih Karagümrük usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 44% of Başakşehir's matches and 72% of Fatih Karagümrük's.
Do Başakşehir and Fatih Karagümrük tend to score early?
Başakşehir have had a goal before half-time in 81% of their recent matches, Fatih Karagümrük in 88% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Fatih Karagümrük cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Başakşehir.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Fatih Karagümrük beat Başakşehir 0-2 at Başakşehir Fatih Terim Stadyumu, Regular Season - 2, in the Süper Lig. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Başakşehir 1.63 xG and Fatih Karagümrük 1.35 xG, a combined 2.99. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Başakşehir fell 1.6 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Başakşehir attack 1.08 / defence 0.89 against Fatih Karagümrük attack 1.16 / defence 1.03, drawn from 37/37 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Başakşehir 42% | Draw 29% | Fatih Karagümrük 29%, with Başakşehir to win its most likely call at 42%. The actual Fatih Karagümrük win had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 57%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 82% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 62% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Başakşehir 40%, Fatih Karagümrük 70%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Başakşehir's trading profile (37 games, 18 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 38% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 35% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Fatih Karagümrük's trading profile (37 games, 18 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 68% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Başakşehir 1.68 PPG, Fatih Karagümrük 1.38 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Fatih Karagümrük win broke the near-deadlock. Başakşehir (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.72 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 0.94 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Fatih Karagümrük (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.78 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.