Başakşehir 0-1 Bodrum FK – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Başakşehir at 75% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Başakşehir vs Bodrum FK encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Süper Lig clash, Regular Season - 24 as Başakşehir welcome Bodrum FK to Başakşehir Fatih Terim Stadyumu. Kick-off is set for Saturday 15 February 2025 at 13:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Süper Lig games this season, Başakşehir have gone 5W 2D 3L from 10 outings — a 1.70 PPG return. Last five: L W L W D. They are averaging 2.20 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. This season is still relatively young for Başakşehir, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Başakşehir have posted 5W 4D 1L at Başakşehir Fatih Terim Stadyumu — 1.90 PPG. They are averaging 2.30 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Bodrum FK — All Games: 1W 3D 6L from 10 Süper Lig fixtures this season — 0.60 PPG. Last five: L D L L D. Their scoring rate of 0.50 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Bodrum FK, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Bodrum FK's form when playing away from home: 1W 2D 7L across 10 road games this term (0.50 PPG). Away from home they average 0.50 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
On current form, Başakşehir have the edge — a 1.10 PPG advantage (1.70 vs 0.60) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for Başakşehir, 0 for Bodrum FK and 0 shared spoils from 1 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
These sides have historically produced few goals — 1.0 per contest from 1 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 14 Sep 2024, ended 1–0 with Başakşehir winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Profile
Başakşehir in-play tendencies (22 games, 11 at home): they score before half-time in 82% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
Bodrum FK in-play tendencies (22 games, 11 at away): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; BTTS occurs in 36% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (away games); they fail to score in 59% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Başakşehir 54% versus Bodrum FK 32%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Başakşehir 54% | Bodrum FK 32%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Başakşehir 2.36 xG and Bodrum FK 0.63 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Başakşehir attack 1.271 / defence 0.802 | Bodrum FK attack 0.650 / defence 1.122. League average goals — home 1.657 / away 1.217. Başakşehir carry an above-average attack strength of 1.271 — their λ of 2.36 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 60 Başakşehir games / 22 Bodrum FK games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Başakşehir 75% | Draw 18% | Bodrum FK 7%. Fair-value odds: Başakşehir 1.33 | Draw 5.56 | Bodrum FK 14.29. The model has a clear lean to Başakşehir (75%) — a 68pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 58% | BTTS probability 44% | Total xG 3.00. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 58% — the 3.00 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 44% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Başakşehir are the pick at 75% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 18% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.00 combined xG gives a 58% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.7 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 44% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Başakşehir 60% | Bodrum FK 30% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Başakşehir vs Bodrum FK | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 24 | Venue: Başakşehir Fatih Terim Stadyumu • Kick-off: Saturday 15 Feb 2025, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Başakşehir 75% | Draw 18% | Bodrum FK 7% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 58% | BTTS 44% | xG Başakşehir 2.36 / Bodrum FK 0.63 • Poisson strength factors: Başakşehir attack 1.271 / def 0.802 | Bodrum FK attack 0.650 / def 1.122 | league avg home 1.657 / away 1.217 • Poisson stance: Başakşehir (75%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.36
Başakşehir xG
Expected Goals
0.63
Bodrum FK xG
44%
BTTS
81%
Over 1.5
58%
Over 2.5
35%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Başakşehir vs Bodrum FK kick off?
Başakşehir vs Bodrum FK kicked off at 13:00 on Saturday 15 February 2025 at Başakşehir Fatih Terim Stadyumu.
What was the final score in Başakşehir vs Bodrum FK?
Başakşehir 0 - 1 Bodrum FK.
Where is Başakşehir vs Bodrum FK being played?
The match is being played at Başakşehir Fatih Terim Stadyumu.
What competition is Başakşehir vs Bodrum FK part of?
Başakşehir vs Bodrum FK is a Regular Season - 24 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Başakşehir vs Bodrum FK?
Our statistical model gives Başakşehir a 75% chance of winning, Bodrum FK a 7% chance, and a 18% chance of a draw — making Başakşehir the favourite.
Will both teams score in Başakşehir vs Bodrum FK?
Our model estimates a 44% probability that both Başakşehir and Bodrum FK will score (BTTS).
Will Başakşehir vs Bodrum FK have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 58%.
What is the head-to-head record between Başakşehir and Bodrum FK?
Record (1 meetings): Başakşehir 1W | Draws 0 | Bodrum FK 0W.
What form are Başakşehir and Bodrum FK in?
Başakşehir (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 2.20 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-W-L-W-D. Bodrum FK (all comps): 1W-3D-6L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 0.50 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-D-L-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Başakşehir's attacking strength (1.27x league average) is weighed against Bodrum FK's defensive record (1.12x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 2.36. The same calculation in reverse, Bodrum FK's attack versus Başakşehir's defence, projects 0.63 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 60/22 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 2-0, at 13.9%. Close behind: 3-0 (11.0%), 1-0 (10.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Başakşehir Win
75%
1.33
18%
5.55
7%
14.16
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
13.9%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 0
11.8%
Home win
3 – 0
11.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.36
Başakşehir xG
Total xG
3.00
0.63
Bodrum FK xG
1.33
75%
Home win
5.55
18%
Draw
14.16
7%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
58%
Over 2.5
1.72
42%
Under 2.5
2.38
35%
Over 3.5
2.86
65%
Under 3.5
1.54
18%
Over 4.5
5.56
82%
Under 4.5
1.22
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
44%
BTTS Yes
2.29
56%
BTTS No
1.78
Clean Sheet
53%
1.89
9%
10.62
Win to Nil
40%
2.52
1%
150.46
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.0 | 3.2 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 1 | 11.8 | 7.5 | 2.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 2 | 13.9 | 8.8 | 2.8 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 11.0 | 7.0 | 2.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 6.5 | 4.1 | 1.3 | 0.3 | – | – |
| 5 | 3.1 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Başakşehir vs Bodrum FK?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.9%.
How many goals are Başakşehir and Bodrum FK expected to score?
The model projects 2.36 expected goals for Başakşehir and 0.63 for Bodrum FK, a combined total of 3.00.
How confident is the prediction model for Başakşehir vs Bodrum FK?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 75%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Başakşehir's recent record stands at 9W 6D 7L from 22 games, a 1.50 PPG return, with L-W-L-W-D in the last five. The sample for Başakşehir is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Bodrum FK, meanwhile, have gone 4W 5D 13L across 22 games — 0.77 PPG, with L-D-L-L-D in their last five. The sample for Bodrum FK is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Başakşehir by 0.73 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Bodrum FK heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Başakşehir have managed 6W 4D 1L from 11 games — 2.00 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.50 PPG overall — Başakşehir are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Bodrum FK's away record stands at 1W 2D 8L across 11 trips, a 0.45 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Başakşehir come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Başakşehir are averaging 1.77 goals scored and 1.36 conceded per game recently; Bodrum FK are on 0.68 scored and 1.32 conceded.
Last 22 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Başakşehir
Blended
Bodrum FK
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Başakşehir and Bodrum FK in coming into this match?
Başakşehir have gone 9W 6D 7L in their last 22 games (1.50 PPG), while Bodrum FK have gone 4W 5D 13L in their last 22 (0.77 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Başakşehir at home or Bodrum FK away?
Başakşehir's home record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Başakşehir at home: 2.00 PPG; Bodrum FK away: 0.45 PPG.
Have Başakşehir or Bodrum FK been keeping clean sheets recently?
Başakşehir have kept a clean sheet in 32% of their recent games, Bodrum FK in 27%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
2 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. It has been a while since the last meeting — 15 February 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
1
Başakşehir
0
Draws
1
Bodrum FK
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Başakşehir and Bodrum FK?
From 2 meetings on record, Başakşehir have won 1, Bodrum FK have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Başakşehir and Bodrum FK last play each other?
They last met on 15 February 2025, when Başakşehir 0-1 Bodrum FK.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Başakşehir are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 36% of those situations.
Bodrum FK are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Başakşehir 64%, Bodrum FK 36% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 64% (Başakşehir) and 46% (Bodrum FK).
On the defensive side: Başakşehir keep a clean sheet in 36% of their matches; Bodrum FK in 54%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Başakşehir home games / Bodrum FK away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Başakşehir play Bodrum FK?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 64% of Başakşehir's recent matches and 36% of Bodrum FK's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Başakşehir vs Bodrum FK usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 64% of Başakşehir's recent games and 46% of Bodrum FK's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Başakşehir and Bodrum FK tend to score early?
Başakşehir have had a goal before half-time in 82% of their recent matches, Bodrum FK in 73% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Bodrum FK defy the odds to beat Başakşehir 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Bodrum FK beat Başakşehir 0-1 at Başakşehir Fatih Terim Stadyumu, Regular Season - 24, in the Süper Lig. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Başakşehir 2.36 xG and Bodrum FK 0.63 xG, a combined 3.00. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Başakşehir fell 2.4 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Başakşehir attack 1.27 / defence 0.80 against Bodrum FK attack 0.65 / defence 1.12, drawn from 60/22 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Başakşehir 75% | Draw 18% | Bodrum FK 7%, with Başakşehir to win its most likely call at 75%. Instead the game produced a Bodrum FK win, an outcome the model had rated at just 7% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 58%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 81% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 43% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Başakşehir 54%, Bodrum FK 32%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 43%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Başakşehir's trading profile (22 games, 11 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.
Bodrum FK's trading profile (22 games, 11 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 32% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Başakşehir arrived the stronger side — 1.50 PPG against 0.77. Form was overturned, with Bodrum FK winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Başakşehir (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 2.45 scoring average — below par going forward. Bodrum FK (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.91 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.