Antalyaspor 1-0 Sivasspor – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Antalyaspor at 55%, yet other data sources diverge — this Antalyaspor vs Sivasspor fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Antalyaspor host Sivasspor at Antalya Stadyumu in Süper Lig, Regular Season - 28. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 6 March 2022 at 16:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Antalyaspor — All Games: 2W 5D 3L from 10 Süper Lig outings this season, averaging 1.10 points per game. Last five: D D W W D. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Antalyaspor, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Antalya Stadyumu, Antalyaspor have gone 5W 3D 2L this season (10 games, 1.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Antalya Stadyumu. Their home PPG of 1.80 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.10 — Antalyaspor are significantly better at Antalya Stadyumu than their overall form suggests.
Across all Süper Lig games this season, Sivasspor have recorded 2W 3D 5L from 10 outings — 0.90 PPG. Last five: D L W L L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Sivasspor, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Sivasspor's away record: 3W 1D 6L from 10 road trips in Süper Lig this season (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Antalyaspor at 1.10 PPG versus Sivasspor's 0.90. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 1 previous meetings, Antalyaspor have won 0, Sivasspor 0, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 1 meetings have averaged 4.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 16 Oct 2021, ended 2–2 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Antalyaspor in-play tendencies (27 games, 13 at home): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (home games); they fail to score in 37% of games.
Sivasspor in-play tendencies (27 games, 13 at away): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Antalyaspor 48% versus Sivasspor 63%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Antalyaspor 48% | Sivasspor 48%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Antalyaspor 1.58 xG and Sivasspor 0.81 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Antalyaspor attack 0.999 / defence 0.916 | Sivasspor attack 0.749 / defence 1.330. League average goals — home 1.193 / away 1.189. Sivasspor bring a strong defensive rating of 1.330 — this is suppressing Antalyaspor's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 27 Antalyaspor games / 27 Sivasspor games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Antalyaspor 55% | Draw 26% | Sivasspor 19%. Fair-value odds: Antalyaspor 1.82 | Draw 3.85 | Sivasspor 5.26. The model has a clear lean to Antalyaspor (55%) — a 36pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 43% | BTTS probability 45% | Total xG 2.40. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 57% — total xG of 2.40 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 45% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Antalyaspor are the pick at 55% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 26% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.40 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 43% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 45%. Form rates are neutral: Antalyaspor 50% | Sivasspor 60%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Antalyaspor vs Sivasspor | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 28 | Venue: Antalya Stadyumu • Kick-off: Sunday 6 Mar 2022, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Antalyaspor 55% | Draw 26% | Sivasspor 19% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 43% | BTTS 45% | xG Antalyaspor 1.58 / Sivasspor 0.81 • Poisson strength factors: Antalyaspor attack 0.999 / def 0.916 | Sivasspor attack 0.749 / def 1.330 | league avg home 1.193 / away 1.189 • Poisson stance: Antalyaspor (55%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.58
Antalyaspor xG
Expected Goals
0.81
Sivasspor xG
45%
BTTS
70%
Over 1.5
43%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Antalyaspor vs Sivasspor kick off?
Antalyaspor vs Sivasspor kicked off at 16:00 on Sunday 6 March 2022 at Antalya Stadyumu.
What was the final score in Antalyaspor vs Sivasspor?
Antalyaspor 1 - 0 Sivasspor.
Where is Antalyaspor vs Sivasspor being played?
The match is being played at Antalya Stadyumu.
What competition is Antalyaspor vs Sivasspor part of?
Antalyaspor vs Sivasspor is a Regular Season - 28 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Antalyaspor vs Sivasspor?
Our statistical model gives Antalyaspor a 55% chance of winning, Sivasspor a 19% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Antalyaspor the favourite.
Will both teams score in Antalyaspor vs Sivasspor?
Our model estimates a 45% probability that both Antalyaspor and Sivasspor will score (BTTS).
Will Antalyaspor vs Sivasspor have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 43%.
What is the head-to-head record between Antalyaspor and Sivasspor?
Record (1 meetings): Antalyaspor 0W | Draws 1 | Sivasspor 0W.
What form are Antalyaspor and Sivasspor in?
Antalyaspor (all comps): 2W-5D-3L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.10 | L5 D-D-W-W-D. Sivasspor (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.80 | L5 D-L-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Antalyaspor's attack at 1.00x the league average against Sivasspor's defence at 1.33x — combine the two and it projects 1.58 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Sivasspor's attack versus Antalyaspor's defence, projects 0.81 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 27/27 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (12.9%), 2-0 (11.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Antalyaspor Win
55%
1.81
26%
3.83
19%
5.33
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.4%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.7%
Draw
2 – 0
11.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.58
Antalyaspor xG
Total xG
2.40
0.81
Sivasspor xG
1.81
55%
Home win
3.83
26%
Draw
5.33
19%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
43%
Over 2.5
2.33
57%
Under 2.5
1.75
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
45%
BTTS Yes
2.23
55%
BTTS No
1.81
Clean Sheet
44%
2.26
20%
4.88
Win to Nil
24%
4.10
4%
26.00
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.1 | 7.4 | 3.0 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 14.4 | 11.7 | 4.8 | 1.3 | 0.3 | – |
| 2 | 11.4 | 9.3 | 3.8 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 6.0 | 4.9 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 2.4 | 1.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.8 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Antalyaspor vs Sivasspor?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.2%.
How many goals are Antalyaspor and Sivasspor expected to score?
The model projects 1.58 expected goals for Antalyaspor and 0.81 for Sivasspor, a combined total of 2.40.
How confident is the prediction model for Antalyaspor vs Sivasspor?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 55%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 27 outings, Antalyaspor have picked up 1.19 PPG on a 8W 8D 11L record — D-D-W-W-D across the most recent five. The sample for Antalyaspor is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Sivasspor's form line: 8W 10D 9L from 27 games, 1.26 PPG, last five D-L-W-L-L. The sample for Sivasspor is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Antalyaspor on 1.19 PPG, Sivasspor on 1.26. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Antalyaspor have posted 1.69 PPG from 13 outings (6W 4D 3L). That's noticeably better than their 1.19 PPG overall — Antalyaspor are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Sivasspor have gone 4W 2D 7L from 13 away games — 1.08 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Antalyaspor come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Antalyaspor are averaging 1.04 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game recently; Sivasspor are on 1.30 scored and 1.26 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Sivasspor in 63%.
Last 27 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Antalyaspor
Blended
Sivasspor
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Antalyaspor and Sivasspor in coming into this match?
Antalyaspor have gone 8W 8D 11L in their last 27 games (1.19 PPG), while Sivasspor have gone 8W 10D 9L in their last 27 (1.26 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Antalyaspor at home or Sivasspor away?
Antalyaspor's home record (1.69 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Antalyaspor at home: 1.69 PPG; Sivasspor away: 1.08 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Antalyaspor and Sivasspor runs to 8 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. It has been a while since the last meeting — 26 April 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
Antalyaspor's record when hosting Sivasspor specifically: 3W 0D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
4
Antalyaspor
2
Draws
2
Sivasspor
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Antalyaspor and Sivasspor?
From 8 meetings on record, Antalyaspor have won 4, Sivasspor have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Antalyaspor and Sivasspor last play each other?
They last met on 26 April 2025, when Sivasspor 2-0 Antalyaspor.
Who has won more matches between Antalyaspor and Sivasspor?
Antalyaspor have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Antalyaspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 46% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 23% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Sivasspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Antalyaspor 62%, Sivasspor 62% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 54% (Antalyaspor) and 54% (Sivasspor).
On the defensive side: Antalyaspor keep a clean sheet in 38% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Antalyaspor home games / Sivasspor away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Antalyaspor play Sivasspor?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 62% of Antalyaspor's games and 62% of Sivasspor's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Antalyaspor vs Sivasspor usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 54% of Antalyaspor's recent games and 54% of Sivasspor's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Antalyaspor and Sivasspor tend to score early?
Antalyaspor have had a goal before half-time in 69% of their recent matches, Sivasspor in 69% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Antalyaspor edge out Sivasspor 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Antalyaspor beat Sivasspor 1-0 at Antalya Stadyumu, Regular Season - 28, in the Süper Lig. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Antalyaspor 1.58 xG and Sivasspor 0.81 xG, a combined 2.40. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Sivasspor landed 0.8 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Antalyaspor attack 1.00 / defence 0.92 against Sivasspor attack 0.75 / defence 1.33, drawn from 27/27 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Antalyaspor 55% | Draw 26% | Sivasspor 19%, with Antalyaspor to win its most likely call at 55%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 70% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Antalyaspor 48%, Sivasspor 48%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Antalyaspor's trading profile (27 games, 13 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not.
Sivasspor's trading profile (27 games, 13 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Antalyaspor 1.19 PPG, Sivasspor 1.26 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Antalyaspor win broke the near-deadlock. Antalyaspor (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line. Sivasspor (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.