Antalyaspor 1-2 Pendikspor – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Antalyaspor at 57% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Antalyaspor vs Pendikspor encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Antalyaspor and Pendikspor meet at Corendon Airlines Park in Süper Lig, Regular Season - 35. This fixture gets under way on Monday 6 May 2024 at 18:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Antalyaspor have collected 1.10 PPG across 10 Süper Lig outings this season: 3W 2D 5L. Last five: W D L W L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Antalyaspor's form when playing at home: 4W 5D 1L across 10 games at Corendon Airlines Park this term (1.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.70 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.10 — Antalyaspor are significantly better at Corendon Airlines Park than their overall form suggests.
Pendikspor's overall Süper Lig record this term: 1W 1D 8L from 10 games (0.40 PPG). Last five: W D L L L. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 2.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.30 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
Pendikspor away from home this season: 0W 4D 6L from 10 away games — 0.40 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 2.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Form favours the hosts. Antalyaspor's 1.10 PPG return is 0.70 points per game ahead of Pendikspor's 0.40 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Antalyaspor have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, Pendikspor in 70%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 1 head-to-head meetings have produced 1 wins for Antalyaspor, 0 for Pendikspor and 0 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
Scoring has been limited when these teams have met. The 1 previous contests averaged 1.0 goals, making the Under 2.5 the historically backed angle in the goals market. The most recent clash, on 9 Jan 2024, ended 1–0 with Antalyaspor winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading Data
Antalyaspor goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (34 games, 17 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 29% of games (home games).
Pendikspor goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (34 games, 17 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 70% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 76% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Antalyaspor 56% and Pendikspor 65% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Antalyaspor 41% | Pendikspor 53%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Antalyaspor 1.73 xG and Pendikspor 0.86 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Antalyaspor attack 0.838 / defence 0.869 | Pendikspor attack 0.794 / defence 1.322. League average goals — home 1.565 / away 1.241. Pendikspor bring a strong defensive rating of 1.322 — this is suppressing Antalyaspor's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 70 Antalyaspor games / 34 Pendikspor games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Antalyaspor 57% | Draw 27% | Pendikspor 17%. Fair-value odds: Antalyaspor 1.75 | Draw 3.70 | Pendikspor 5.88. The model has a clear lean to Antalyaspor (57%) — a 40pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 2.59. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.59 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Antalyaspor as the most likely outcome at 57% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 27% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.59 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 48% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 49% on No. This conflicts with form data: Antalyaspor 60% | Pendikspor 70% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Antalyaspor vs Pendikspor | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 35 | Venue: Corendon Airlines Park • Kick-off: Monday 6 May 2024, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Antalyaspor 57% | Draw 27% | Pendikspor 17% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 48% | BTTS 49% | xG Antalyaspor 1.73 / Pendikspor 0.86 • Poisson strength factors: Antalyaspor attack 0.838 / def 0.869 | Pendikspor attack 0.794 / def 1.322 | league avg home 1.565 / away 1.241 • Poisson stance: Antalyaspor (57%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.73
Antalyaspor xG
Expected Goals
0.86
Pendikspor xG
49%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
48%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Antalyaspor vs Pendikspor kick off?
Antalyaspor vs Pendikspor kicked off at 18:00 on Monday 6 May 2024 at Corendon Airlines Park.
What was the final score in Antalyaspor vs Pendikspor?
Antalyaspor 1 - 2 Pendikspor.
Where is Antalyaspor vs Pendikspor being played?
The match is being played at Corendon Airlines Park.
What competition is Antalyaspor vs Pendikspor part of?
Antalyaspor vs Pendikspor is a Regular Season - 35 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Antalyaspor vs Pendikspor?
Our statistical model gives Antalyaspor a 57% chance of winning, Pendikspor a 17% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Antalyaspor the favourite.
Will both teams score in Antalyaspor vs Pendikspor?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both Antalyaspor and Pendikspor will score (BTTS).
Will Antalyaspor vs Pendikspor have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 48%.
What is the head-to-head record between Antalyaspor and Pendikspor?
Record (1 meetings): Antalyaspor 1W | Draws 0 | Pendikspor 0W.
What form are Antalyaspor and Pendikspor in?
Antalyaspor (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.70 | L5 W-D-L-W-L. Pendikspor (all comps): 1W-1D-8L in 10 | 0.40 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 2.30 | L5 W-D-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Antalyaspor's attacking strength (0.84x league average) is weighed against Pendikspor's defensive record (1.32x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.73. Flip it around — Pendikspor's attack (0.79x) against Antalyaspor's defence (0.87x) — and the away total comes out at 0.86.
These ratings are built from 70/34 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.6%. Close behind: 1-0 (11.6%), 2-0 (11.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Antalyaspor Win
57%
1.76
27%
3.77
17%
5.95
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.0%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
11.3%
Home win
1 – 1
11.1%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.73
Antalyaspor xG
Total xG
2.59
0.86
Pendikspor xG
1.76
57%
Home win
3.77
27%
Draw
5.95
17%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
48%
Over 2.5
2.08
52%
Under 2.5
1.92
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.05
51%
BTTS No
1.96
Clean Sheet
42%
2.35
18%
5.66
Win to Nil
24%
4.15
3%
33.71
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.5 | 6.4 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 13.0 | 11.1 | 4.8 | 1.4 | 0.3 | – |
| 2 | 11.3 | 9.7 | 4.1 | 1.2 | 0.3 | – |
| 3 | 6.5 | 5.6 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 2.8 | 2.4 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.0 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Antalyaspor vs Pendikspor?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.6%.
How many goals are Antalyaspor and Pendikspor expected to score?
The model projects 1.73 expected goals for Antalyaspor and 0.86 for Pendikspor, a combined total of 2.59.
How confident is the prediction model for Antalyaspor vs Pendikspor?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 57%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Antalyaspor's recent record stands at 11W 12D 11L from 34 games, a 1.32 PPG return, with W-D-L-W-L in the last five.
Pendikspor, meanwhile, have gone 7W 9D 18L across 34 games — 0.88 PPG, with W-D-L-L-L in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Antalyaspor by 0.44 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Pendikspor heading into this one.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Antalyaspor have managed 7W 8D 2L from 17 games — 1.71 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Pendikspor's away record stands at 2W 6D 9L across 17 trips, a 0.71 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Antalyaspor come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Antalyaspor are averaging 1.15 goals scored and 1.24 conceded per game recently; Pendikspor are on 1.12 scored and 2.06 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Pendikspor in 65%.
Last 34 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Antalyaspor
Current Season
Pendikspor
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Antalyaspor and Pendikspor in coming into this match?
Antalyaspor have gone 11W 12D 11L in their last 34 games (1.32 PPG), while Pendikspor have gone 7W 9D 18L in their last 34 (0.88 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Antalyaspor at home or Pendikspor away?
Antalyaspor's home record (1.71 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Antalyaspor at home: 1.71 PPG; Pendikspor away: 0.71 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 2 times since January 2024 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. It has been a while since the last meeting — 6 May 2024, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
1
Antalyaspor
0
Draws
1
Pendikspor
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Antalyaspor and Pendikspor?
From 2 meetings on record, Antalyaspor have won 1, Pendikspor have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Antalyaspor and Pendikspor last play each other?
They last met on 6 May 2024, when Antalyaspor 1-2 Pendikspor.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Antalyaspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 41% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 18% of those situations.
Pendikspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Antalyaspor 53%, Pendikspor 76% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 29% (Antalyaspor) and 59% (Pendikspor).
On the defensive side: Antalyaspor keep a clean sheet in 35% of their matches; Antalyaspor have failed to score in 29% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Antalyaspor home games / Pendikspor away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Antalyaspor play Pendikspor?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 53% of Antalyaspor's games and 76% of Pendikspor's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Antalyaspor vs Pendikspor usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 29% of Antalyaspor's recent games and 59% of Pendikspor's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Antalyaspor and Pendikspor tend to score early?
Antalyaspor have had a goal before half-time in 71% of their recent matches, Pendikspor in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Pendikspor defy the odds to beat Antalyaspor 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Pendikspor beat Antalyaspor 1-2 at Corendon Airlines Park, Regular Season - 35, in the Süper Lig. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Antalyaspor 1.73 xG and Pendikspor 0.86 xG, a combined 2.59. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Pendikspor outscored their 0.86 projection by 1.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Antalyaspor attack 0.84 / defence 0.87 against Pendikspor attack 0.79 / defence 1.32, drawn from 70/34 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Antalyaspor 57% | Draw 27% | Pendikspor 17%, with Antalyaspor to win its most likely call at 57%. Instead the game produced a Pendikspor win, an outcome the model had rated at just 17% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Antalyaspor 41%, Pendikspor 53%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Antalyaspor's trading profile (34 games, 17 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.
Pendikspor's trading profile (34 games, 17 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Antalyaspor arrived the stronger side — 1.32 PPG against 0.88. Form was overturned, with Pendikspor winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Antalyaspor (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 0.88 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Pendikspor (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.06 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 1 against a 2.29 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.