Antalyaspor 3-2 Konyaspor – Result & Analysis

Poisson rates Antalyaspor at 55% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Antalyaspor vs Konyaspor encounter.

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Pre-Match Analysis

Antalyaspor and Konyaspor meet at Antalya Stadyumu in Süper Lig, Regular Season - 36. This fixture gets under way on Monday 9 May 2022 at 18:00 UTC.

Current Form

Antalyaspor's overall Süper Lig record this term: 7W 3D 0L from 10 games (2.40 PPG). Last five: W W W D D. They are averaging 2.00 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.

In front of their own supporters this season, Antalyaspor have posted 6W 4D 0L at Antalya Stadyumu — 2.20 PPG. They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.

Konyaspor have collected 1.50 PPG across 10 Süper Lig outings this season: 5W 0D 5L. Last five: W L W W L. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play.

Konyaspor's away record: 5W 0D 5L from 10 road trips in Süper Lig this season (1.50 PPG). They are averaging 1.90 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 90% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.

The points-per-game gap of 0.90 in Antalyaspor's favour (2.40 vs 1.50) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.

In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Antalyaspor have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, Konyaspor in 90%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.

H2H Analysis

Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 1 head-to-head meetings have produced 0 wins for Antalyaspor, 1 for Konyaspor and 0 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.

Historically, goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 1.0 per game from 1 meetings. The Under 2.5 has a clear base rate from the H2H record alone. The most recent clash, on 18 Dec 2021, ended 0–1 with Konyaspor winning.

With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.

Trading & In-Play

Antalyaspor — key trading statistics (35 games, 17 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; BTTS occurs in 65% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (home games).

Konyaspor — key trading statistics (35 games, 17 at away): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 65% of games (away games).

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Antalyaspor 54% versus Konyaspor 57%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Antalyaspor 51% | Konyaspor 57%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Antalyaspor 2.02 xG and Konyaspor 1.18 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Antalyaspor attack 1.155 / defence 0.891 | Konyaspor attack 0.981 / defence 1.459. League average goals — home 1.198 / away 1.343. Konyaspor bring a strong defensive rating of 1.459 — this is suppressing Antalyaspor's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 35 Antalyaspor games / 35 Konyaspor games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Antalyaspor 55% | Draw 25% | Konyaspor 20%. Fair-value odds: Antalyaspor 1.82 | Draw 4.00 | Konyaspor 5.00. The model has a clear lean to Antalyaspor (55%) — a 35pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 62% | BTTS probability 62% | Total xG 3.20. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 62% — the 3.20 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 62% reflects that both xG figures (2.02 / 1.18) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.

Final Verdict

Poisson rates Antalyaspor as the most likely outcome at 55% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 25% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.

On the goals line, Poisson's 3.20 combined xG gives a 62% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 62%. Form rates corroborate: Antalyaspor 60% | Konyaspor 90% BTTS from recent games.

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