Antalyaspor 0-2 Konyaspor – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Antalyaspor at 44%, yet in-form Konyaspor provide a compelling counter-argument — this Antalyaspor vs Konyaspor fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Antalyaspor and Konyaspor meet at Corendon Airlines Park in Süper Lig, Regular Season - 30. This fixture gets under way on Friday 17 April 2026 at 18:00 UTC.
Current Form
Antalyaspor's overall Süper Lig record this term: 2W 3D 5L from 10 games (0.90 PPG). Last five: L L D W L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
In front of their own supporters this season, Antalyaspor have posted 3W 2D 5L at Corendon Airlines Park — 1.10 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 2.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Konyaspor have collected 1.50 PPG across 10 Süper Lig outings this season: 4W 3D 3L. Last five: D W W D W. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
Konyaspor's away record: 2W 2D 6L from 10 road trips in Süper Lig this season (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.80 is notably below their overall 1.50 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
On a straight form reading, Konyaspor are the stronger side — 0.60 PPG clear of the hosts (1.50 vs 0.90). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (using home/away splits) — Antalyaspor register both teams scoring in 80% of relevant games, Konyaspor in 70%. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 9 head-to-head meetings have produced 2 wins for Antalyaspor, 1 for Konyaspor and 6 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
The 9 previous meetings have averaged 1.9 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 24 Nov 2025, ended 0–0 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Antalyaspor — key trading statistics (65 games, 32 at home): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 61% of the time; BTTS occurs in 69% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 69% of games (home games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
Konyaspor — key trading statistics (65 games, 32 at away): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; BTTS occurs in 69% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Antalyaspor 54% versus Konyaspor 63%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Antalyaspor 55% | Konyaspor 51%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Antalyaspor 1.90 xG and Konyaspor 1.56 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Antalyaspor attack 1.128 / defence 1.308 | Konyaspor attack 1.006 / defence 1.194. League average goals — home 1.414 / away 1.186. Data: 65 Antalyaspor games / 65 Konyaspor games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Antalyaspor 44% | Draw 27% | Konyaspor 30%. Fair-value odds: Antalyaspor 2.27 | Draw 3.70 | Konyaspor 3.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 67% | BTTS probability 70% | Total xG 3.46. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 67% — a total xG of 3.46 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 70% reflects that both xG figures (1.90 / 1.56) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Antalyaspor as the most likely outcome at 44% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Konyaspor (1.50 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Antalyaspor if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.46 combined xG gives a 67% probability to Over 2.5 — marginal — conflicting signals, supported by form averaging 3.4 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 1.9 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 70%. Form rates corroborate: Antalyaspor 80% | Konyaspor 70% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Antalyaspor vs Konyaspor | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 30 | Venue: Corendon Airlines Park • Kick-off: Friday 17 Apr 2026, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Antalyaspor 44% | Draw 27% | Konyaspor 30% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 67% | BTTS 70% | xG Antalyaspor 1.90 / Konyaspor 1.56 • Poisson strength factors: Antalyaspor attack 1.128 / def 1.308 | Konyaspor attack 1.006 / def 1.194 | league avg home 1.414 / away 1.186 • Poisson stance: Antalyaspor (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.90
Antalyaspor xG
Expected Goals
1.56
Konyaspor xG
70%
BTTS
88%
Over 1.5
67%
Over 2.5
46%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Antalyaspor vs Konyaspor kick off?
Antalyaspor vs Konyaspor kicked off at 18:00 on Friday 17 April 2026 at Corendon Airlines Park.
What was the final score in Antalyaspor vs Konyaspor?
Antalyaspor 0 - 2 Konyaspor.
Where is Antalyaspor vs Konyaspor being played?
The match is being played at Corendon Airlines Park.
What competition is Antalyaspor vs Konyaspor part of?
Antalyaspor vs Konyaspor is a Regular Season - 30 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Antalyaspor vs Konyaspor?
Our statistical model gives Antalyaspor a 44% chance of winning, Konyaspor a 30% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Antalyaspor the favourite.
Will both teams score in Antalyaspor vs Konyaspor?
Our model estimates a 70% probability that both Antalyaspor and Konyaspor will score (BTTS).
Will Antalyaspor vs Konyaspor have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 67%.
What is the head-to-head record between Antalyaspor and Konyaspor?
Record (9 meetings): Antalyaspor 2W | Draws 6 | Konyaspor 1W.
What form are Antalyaspor and Konyaspor in?
Antalyaspor (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-L-D-W-L. Konyaspor (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.00 | L5 D-W-W-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Antalyaspor's attack rating (1.13) and Konyaspor's defence rating (1.19), the model arrives at 1.90 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Konyaspor's attack (1.01x) against Antalyaspor's defence (1.31x) — and the away total comes out at 1.56.
These ratings are built from 65/65 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 10.5%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.8%), 1-2 (7.3%). Together the top three scorelines make up 27% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Antalyaspor Win
44%
2.29
27%
3.74
30%
3.38
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
9.3%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.8%
Home win
1 – 2
7.3%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.90
Antalyaspor xG
Total xG
3.46
1.56
Konyaspor xG
2.29
44%
Home win
3.74
27%
Draw
3.38
30%
Away win
Goals Markets
86%
Over 1.5
1.16
14%
Under 1.5
7.14
67%
Over 2.5
1.49
33%
Under 2.5
3.03
46%
Over 3.5
2.17
54%
Under 3.5
1.85
27%
Over 4.5
3.70
73%
Under 4.5
1.37
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
70%
BTTS Yes
1.44
30%
BTTS No
3.29
Clean Sheet
21%
4.76
15%
6.71
Win to Nil
9%
10.91
4%
22.68
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.1 | 4.9 | 3.8 | 2.0 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 6.0 | 9.3 | 7.3 | 3.8 | 1.5 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 5.7 | 8.8 | 6.9 | 3.6 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 3.6 | 5.6 | 4.4 | 2.3 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 1.7 | 2.7 | 2.1 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.7 | 1.0 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Antalyaspor vs Konyaspor?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.5%.
How many goals are Antalyaspor and Konyaspor expected to score?
The model projects 1.90 expected goals for Antalyaspor and 1.56 for Konyaspor, a combined total of 3.46.
How confident is the prediction model for Antalyaspor vs Konyaspor?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Antalyaspor come into this having played 65 games, going 19W 15D 31L for 1.11 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-D-W-L.
On the other side, Konyaspor sit at 1.23 PPG from 65 outings (21W 17D 27L), a run that reads D-W-W-D-W across their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.11 PPG for Antalyaspor against 1.23 for Konyaspor. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
Antalyaspor's home form reads 14W 7D 11L across 32 games on their own ground, a 1.53 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.11 PPG overall — Antalyaspor are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Konyaspor have taken 0.84 points per game from 32 outings (7W 6D 19L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Antalyaspor come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Antalyaspor are averaging 1.03 goals scored and 1.68 conceded per game recently; Konyaspor are on 1.25 scored and 1.40 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Konyaspor in 63%.
Last 65 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Antalyaspor
Current Season
Konyaspor
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Antalyaspor and Konyaspor in coming into this match?
Antalyaspor have gone 19W 15D 31L in their last 65 games (1.11 PPG), while Konyaspor have gone 21W 17D 27L in their last 65 (1.23 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Antalyaspor at home or Konyaspor away?
Antalyaspor's home record (1.53 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Antalyaspor at home: 1.53 PPG; Konyaspor away: 0.84 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to December 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. They last met on 17 April 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Antalyaspor have gone 2W 2D 1L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Konyaspor — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Antalyaspor
6
Draws
2
Konyaspor
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Antalyaspor and Konyaspor?
From 10 meetings on record, Antalyaspor have won 2, Konyaspor have won 2, and 6 have been drawn.
When did Antalyaspor and Konyaspor last play each other?
They last met on 17 April 2026, when Antalyaspor 0-2 Konyaspor.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Antalyaspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time.
Konyaspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 69% for Antalyaspor, 69% for Konyaspor — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 69% for Antalyaspor and 56% for Konyaspor. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 31% and 34% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Antalyaspor home games / Konyaspor away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Antalyaspor play Konyaspor?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 69% of Antalyaspor's games and 69% of Konyaspor's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Antalyaspor vs Konyaspor usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 69% of Antalyaspor's matches and 56% of Konyaspor's.
Do Antalyaspor and Konyaspor tend to score early?
Antalyaspor have had a goal before half-time in 62% of their recent matches, Konyaspor in 78% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Konyaspor cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Antalyaspor.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Konyaspor beat Antalyaspor 0-2 at Corendon Airlines Park, Regular Season - 30, in the Süper Lig. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Antalyaspor 1.90 xG and Konyaspor 1.56 xG, a combined 3.46. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Antalyaspor fell 1.9 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Antalyaspor attack 1.13 / defence 1.31 against Konyaspor attack 1.01 / defence 1.19, drawn from 65/65 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Antalyaspor 44% | Draw 27% | Konyaspor 30%, with Antalyaspor to win its most likely call at 44%. The actual Konyaspor win had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 67%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 88% and landed. Over 3.5 was 46% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 70% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Antalyaspor 55%, Konyaspor 51%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Antalyaspor's trading profile (65 games, 32 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 38% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Konyaspor's trading profile (65 games, 32 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Antalyaspor 1.11 PPG, Konyaspor 1.23 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Konyaspor win broke the near-deadlock. Antalyaspor (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.38 scoring average — below par going forward. Konyaspor (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.12 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.78 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.