Antalyaspor 0-0 Alanyaspor – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Alanyaspor at 35%, yet other data sources diverge — this Antalyaspor vs Alanyaspor fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Süper Lig encounter, Regular Season - 32 sees Alanyaspor travel to Corendon Airlines Park to take on Antalyaspor. The game is scheduled for Sunday 3 May 2026, 18:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Süper Lig games this season, Antalyaspor have gone 2W 2D 6L from 10 outings — a 0.80 PPG return. Last five: D W L L L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
Antalyaspor's home record at Corendon Airlines Park: 3W 2D 5L from 10 Süper Lig appearances (1.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Alanyaspor — All Games: 2W 4D 4L from 10 Süper Lig fixtures this season — 1.00 PPG. Last five: W D D L L. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.40. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
On the road, Alanyaspor have gone 0W 7D 3L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form comparison is too close to call — 0.80 PPG (Antalyaspor) versus 1.00 (Alanyaspor). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
Both teams score in over 70% of each side's relevant games (using home/away splits). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
H2H
The fixture history tells a clear story: Antalyaspor have dominated this rivalry, winning 5 of 9 past contests while Alanyaspor have managed just 1 wins.
The 9 previous meetings have averaged 2.7 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 8 Dec 2025, ended 0–0 with a draw.
The historical record gives Antalyaspor a meaningful edge here — 5 wins from 9 meetings is the kind of ledger that should not be discounted when the form picture is inconclusive. Even away from home, the visitors have struggled to impose themselves in this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Antalyaspor in-play and half-time data (67 games, 33 at home): they score before half-time in 61% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (home games); they fail to score in 40% of games.
Alanyaspor in-play and half-time data (67 games, 33 at away): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 63% of the time; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Antalyaspor 52% versus Alanyaspor 58%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Antalyaspor 54% | Alanyaspor 45%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Antalyaspor 1.43 xG and Alanyaspor 1.44 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Antalyaspor attack 0.967 / defence 1.336 | Alanyaspor attack 0.952 / defence 0.994. League average goals — home 1.484 / away 1.128. Data: 67 Antalyaspor games / 67 Alanyaspor games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Antalyaspor 34% | Draw 31% | Alanyaspor 35%. Fair-value odds: Antalyaspor 2.94 | Draw 3.23 | Alanyaspor 2.86. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 55% | BTTS probability 61% | Total xG 2.86. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 55% — the 2.86 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 61% reflects that both xG figures (1.43 / 1.44) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Alanyaspor as the most likely outcome at 35% — marginal model lean. With a 31% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Alanyaspor offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.86 combined xG gives a 55% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 61% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Antalyaspor 80% | Alanyaspor 70% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Antalyaspor vs Alanyaspor | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 32 | Venue: Corendon Airlines Park • Kick-off: Sunday 3 May 2026, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Antalyaspor 34% | Draw 31% | Alanyaspor 35% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 55% | BTTS 61% | xG Antalyaspor 1.43 / Alanyaspor 1.44 • Poisson strength factors: Antalyaspor attack 0.967 / def 1.336 | Alanyaspor attack 0.952 / def 0.994 | league avg home 1.484 / away 1.128 • Poisson stance: Alanyaspor (35%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.43
Antalyaspor xG
Expected Goals
1.44
Alanyaspor xG
61%
BTTS
81%
Over 1.5
55%
Over 2.5
32%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Antalyaspor vs Alanyaspor kick off?
Antalyaspor vs Alanyaspor kicked off at 18:00 on Sunday 3 May 2026 at Corendon Airlines Park.
What was the final score in Antalyaspor vs Alanyaspor?
Antalyaspor 0 - 0 Alanyaspor.
Where is Antalyaspor vs Alanyaspor being played?
The match is being played at Corendon Airlines Park.
What competition is Antalyaspor vs Alanyaspor part of?
Antalyaspor vs Alanyaspor is a Regular Season - 32 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Antalyaspor vs Alanyaspor?
Our statistical model gives Antalyaspor a 34% chance of winning, Alanyaspor a 35% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Alanyaspor the favourite.
Will both teams score in Antalyaspor vs Alanyaspor?
Our model estimates a 61% probability that both Antalyaspor and Alanyaspor will score (BTTS).
Will Antalyaspor vs Alanyaspor have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 55%.
What is the head-to-head record between Antalyaspor and Alanyaspor?
Record (9 meetings): Antalyaspor 5W | Draws 3 | Alanyaspor 1W.
What form are Antalyaspor and Alanyaspor in?
Antalyaspor (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.70 | L5 D-W-L-L-L. Alanyaspor (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-D-D-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Antalyaspor's attacking strength (0.97x league average) is weighed against Alanyaspor's defensive record (0.99x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.43. The same calculation in reverse, Alanyaspor's attack versus Antalyaspor's defence, projects 1.44 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 67/67 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.2%. Close behind: 1-2 (8.4%), 2-1 (8.4%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Alanyaspor Win
34%
2.92
31%
3.22
35%
2.88
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.7%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
8.4%
Away win
2 – 1
8.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.43
Antalyaspor xG
Total xG
2.86
1.44
Alanyaspor xG
2.92
34%
Home win
3.22
31%
Draw
2.88
35%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
55%
Over 2.5
1.82
45%
Under 2.5
2.22
32%
Over 3.5
3.12
68%
Under 3.5
1.47
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
61%
BTTS Yes
1.64
39%
BTTS No
2.56
Clean Sheet
24%
4.20
24%
4.17
Win to Nil
8%
12.25
8%
12.02
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.7 | 8.2 | 5.9 | 2.8 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 8.2 | 11.7 | 8.4 | 4.0 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.8 | 8.4 | 6.0 | 2.9 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 2.8 | 4.0 | 2.8 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.4 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Antalyaspor vs Alanyaspor?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.2%.
How many goals are Antalyaspor and Alanyaspor expected to score?
The model projects 1.43 expected goals for Antalyaspor and 1.44 for Alanyaspor, a combined total of 2.86.
How confident is the prediction model for Antalyaspor vs Alanyaspor?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 35%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Antalyaspor's recent record stands at 19W 15D 33L from 67 games, a 1.07 PPG return, with D-W-L-L-L in the last five.
Alanyaspor, meanwhile, have gone 18W 24D 25L across 67 games — 1.16 PPG, with W-D-D-L-L in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Antalyaspor on 1.07 PPG, Alanyaspor on 1.16. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Antalyaspor have managed 14W 7D 12L from 33 games — 1.48 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.07 PPG overall — Antalyaspor are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Alanyaspor's away record stands at 5W 14D 14L across 33 trips, a 0.88 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Antalyaspor come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Antalyaspor are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.69 conceded per game recently; Alanyaspor are on 1.19 scored and 1.31 conceded.
Last 67 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Antalyaspor
Current Season
Alanyaspor
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Antalyaspor and Alanyaspor in coming into this match?
Antalyaspor have gone 19W 15D 33L in their last 67 games (1.07 PPG), while Alanyaspor have gone 18W 24D 25L in their last 67 (1.16 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Antalyaspor at home or Alanyaspor away?
Antalyaspor's home record (1.48 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Antalyaspor at home: 1.48 PPG; Alanyaspor away: 0.88 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. They last met on 3 May 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 27 Nov 2021, when Antalyaspor won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Antalyaspor's record when hosting Alanyaspor specifically: 3W 2D 0L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Antalyaspor
4
Draws
1
Alanyaspor
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Antalyaspor and Alanyaspor?
From 10 meetings on record, Antalyaspor have won 5, Alanyaspor have won 1, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Antalyaspor and Alanyaspor last play each other?
They last met on 3 May 2026, when Antalyaspor 0-0 Alanyaspor.
Who has won more matches between Antalyaspor and Alanyaspor?
Antalyaspor have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Antalyaspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 61% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time.
Alanyaspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 15% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 15% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Antalyaspor at 67%, Alanyaspor at 64%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 67% (Antalyaspor) and 46% (Alanyaspor). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 30% and 24% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Alanyaspor in 27%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Antalyaspor home games / Alanyaspor away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Antalyaspor play Alanyaspor?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 67% of Antalyaspor's games and 64% of Alanyaspor's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Antalyaspor vs Alanyaspor usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 67% of Antalyaspor's matches and 46% of Alanyaspor's.
Do Antalyaspor and Alanyaspor tend to score early?
Antalyaspor have had a goal before half-time in 61% of their recent matches, Alanyaspor in 73% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Antalyaspor's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Antalyaspor and Alanyaspor finished level at 0-0 at Corendon Airlines Park, Regular Season - 32, in the Süper Lig. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Antalyaspor 1.43 xG and Alanyaspor 1.44 xG, a combined 2.86. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Antalyaspor fell 1.4 short of their projected output. Alanyaspor landed 1.4 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Antalyaspor attack 0.97 / defence 1.34 against Alanyaspor attack 0.95 / defence 0.99, drawn from 67/67 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Antalyaspor 34% | Draw 31% | Alanyaspor 35%, with Alanyaspor to win its most likely call at 35%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 81% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 61% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Antalyaspor 54%, Alanyaspor 45%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Antalyaspor's trading profile (67 games, 33 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 40% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Alanyaspor's trading profile (67 games, 33 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 25% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Antalyaspor 1.07 PPG, Alanyaspor 1.16 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Antalyaspor (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.33 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.67 average — tighter than their form line. Alanyaspor (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.03 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.55 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.