Ankaragücü 1-1 Trabzonspor – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Trabzonspor at 46%, yet other data sources diverge — this Ankaragücü vs Trabzonspor fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Eryaman Stadyumu plays host to Ankaragücü versus Trabzonspor in Süper Lig, Regular Season - 14. Kick-off: Friday 11 November 2022 at 17:00 UTC.
Form
Ankaragücü (all games): 3W 2D 5L across 10 Süper Lig fixtures this term — 1.10 PPG. Last five: W L D W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.90 conceded. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Ankaragücü, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Eryaman Stadyumu, Ankaragücü have gone 2W 1D 3L this season (6 games, 1.17 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.67 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 67% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Trabzonspor's overall Süper Lig record this term: 4W 4D 2L from 10 games (1.60 PPG). Last five: W D D W D. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.50. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Trabzonspor, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Trabzonspor's away record: 4W 3D 3L from 10 road trips in Süper Lig this season (1.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. Trabzonspor are 0.50 PPG clear of Ankaragücü in recent Süper Lig fixtures (1.60 vs 1.10). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Ankaragücü have seen both teams score in 67% of their games, Trabzonspor in 70%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
Trading & In-Play
Ankaragücü — key trading statistics (12 games, 6 at home): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 83% of games (home games).
Trabzonspor — key trading statistics (12 games, 6 at away): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 42%; they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Ankaragücü 75% and Trabzonspor 50% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Ankaragücü 67% | Trabzonspor 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Ankaragücü 1.60 xG and Trabzonspor 1.93 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Ankaragücü attack 1.009 / defence 1.215 | Trabzonspor attack 1.170 / defence 1.047. League average goals — home 1.511 / away 1.354. Data: 12 Ankaragücü games / 50 Trabzonspor games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Ankaragücü 32% | Draw 22% | Trabzonspor 46%. Fair-value odds: Ankaragücü 3.12 | Draw 4.55 | Trabzonspor 2.17. Trabzonspor hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (22%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 68% | BTTS probability 68% | Total xG 3.52. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 68% — a total xG of 3.52 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 68% reflects that both xG figures (1.60 / 1.93) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Trabzonspor as the most likely outcome at 46% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 22% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Trabzonspor if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 3.52 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 68% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 68% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Ankaragücü 67% | Trabzonspor 70% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Ankaragücü vs Trabzonspor | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 14 | Venue: Eryaman Stadyumu • Kick-off: Friday 11 Nov 2022, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Ankaragücü 32% | Draw 22% | Trabzonspor 46% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 68% | BTTS 68% | xG Ankaragücü 1.60 / Trabzonspor 1.93 • Poisson strength factors: Ankaragücü attack 1.009 / def 1.215 | Trabzonspor attack 1.170 / def 1.047 | league avg home 1.511 / away 1.354 • Poisson stance: Trabzonspor (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.60
Ankaragücü xG
Expected Goals
1.93
Trabzonspor xG
68%
BTTS
87%
Over 1.5
68%
Over 2.5
47%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Ankaragücü vs Trabzonspor kick off?
Ankaragücü vs Trabzonspor kicked off at 17:00 on Friday 11 November 2022 at Eryaman Stadyumu.
What was the final score in Ankaragücü vs Trabzonspor?
Ankaragücü 1 - 1 Trabzonspor.
Where is Ankaragücü vs Trabzonspor being played?
The match is being played at Eryaman Stadyumu.
What competition is Ankaragücü vs Trabzonspor part of?
Ankaragücü vs Trabzonspor is a Regular Season - 14 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Ankaragücü vs Trabzonspor?
Our statistical model gives Ankaragücü a 32% chance of winning, Trabzonspor a 46% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Trabzonspor the favourite.
Will both teams score in Ankaragücü vs Trabzonspor?
Our model estimates a 68% probability that both Ankaragücü and Trabzonspor will score (BTTS).
Will Ankaragücü vs Trabzonspor have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 68%.
What is the head-to-head record between Ankaragücü and Trabzonspor?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Ankaragücü and Trabzonspor in?
Ankaragücü (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.90 | L5 W-L-D-W-D. Trabzonspor (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-D-D-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Ankaragücü's attack rating (1.01) and Trabzonspor's defence rating (1.05), the model arrives at 1.60 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Trabzonspor's attack (1.17x) against Ankaragücü's defence (1.22x) — and the away total comes out at 1.93.
These ratings are built from 12/50 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 10.3%. Close behind: 1-2 (8.7%), 2-1 (7.3%). Together the top three scorelines make up 26% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Trabzonspor Win
32%
3.09
22%
4.56
46%
2.19
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
9.1%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
8.7%
Away win
2 – 1
7.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.60
Ankaragücü xG
Total xG
3.52
1.93
Trabzonspor xG
3.09
32%
Home win
4.56
22%
Draw
2.19
46%
Away win
Goals Markets
87%
Over 1.5
1.15
13%
Under 1.5
7.69
68%
Over 2.5
1.47
32%
Under 2.5
3.12
47%
Over 3.5
2.13
53%
Under 3.5
1.89
28%
Over 4.5
3.57
72%
Under 4.5
1.39
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
68%
BTTS Yes
1.47
32%
BTTS No
3.14
Clean Sheet
15%
6.86
20%
4.94
Win to Nil
5%
21.19
9%
10.80
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.0 | 5.7 | 5.5 | 3.5 | 1.7 | 0.7 |
| 1 | 4.7 | 9.1 | 8.7 | 5.6 | 2.7 | 1.0 |
| 2 | 3.8 | 7.3 | 7.0 | 4.5 | 2.2 | 0.8 |
| 3 | 2.0 | 3.9 | 3.7 | 2.4 | 1.1 | 0.4 |
| 4 | 0.8 | 1.5 | 1.5 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Ankaragücü vs Trabzonspor?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.3%.
How many goals are Ankaragücü and Trabzonspor expected to score?
The model projects 1.60 expected goals for Ankaragücü and 1.93 for Trabzonspor, a combined total of 3.52.
How confident is the prediction model for Ankaragücü vs Trabzonspor?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Ankaragücü's recent record stands at 3W 3D 6L from 12 games, a 1.00 PPG return, with W-L-D-W-D in the last five. The sample for Ankaragücü is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Trabzonspor, meanwhile, have gone 6W 4D 2L across 12 games — 1.83 PPG, with W-D-D-W-D in their last five. The sample for Trabzonspor is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Trabzonspor by 0.83 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Ankaragücü heading into this one.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Ankaragücü have managed 2W 1D 3L from 6 games — 1.17 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Trabzonspor's away record stands at 3W 1D 2L across 6 trips, a 1.67 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Trabzonspor come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Ankaragücü are averaging 1.25 goals scored and 1.67 conceded per game recently; Trabzonspor are on 1.50 scored and 1.25 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Ankaragücü have seen both teams score in 75% of their recent games.
Defensively: Trabzonspor in 50% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 12 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Ankaragücü
Blended
Trabzonspor
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Ankaragücü and Trabzonspor in coming into this match?
Ankaragücü have gone 3W 3D 6L in their last 12 games (1.00 PPG), while Trabzonspor have gone 6W 4D 2L in their last 12 (1.83 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Ankaragücü at home or Trabzonspor away?
Trabzonspor's away record (1.67 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Ankaragücü at home: 1.17 PPG; Trabzonspor away: 1.67 PPG.
Have Ankaragücü or Trabzonspor been keeping clean sheets recently?
Ankaragücü have kept a clean sheet in 8% of their recent games, Trabzonspor in 50%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 4 times that we have on record, stretching back to November 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. It has been a while since the last meeting — 26 May 2024, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
Trabzonspor go into this on the back of 3 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Ankaragücü have gone 0W 1D 1L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Trabzonspor — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
0
Ankaragücü
1
Draws
3
Trabzonspor
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Ankaragücü and Trabzonspor?
From 4 meetings on record, Ankaragücü have won 0, Trabzonspor have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Ankaragücü and Trabzonspor last play each other?
They last met on 26 May 2024, when Trabzonspor 4-2 Ankaragücü.
Who has won more matches between Ankaragücü and Trabzonspor?
Trabzonspor have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Ankaragücü are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Trabzonspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 67% for Ankaragücü, 67% for Trabzonspor — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 83% for Ankaragücü and 67% for Trabzonspor. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 33% and 50% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Trabzonspor in 33%; Ankaragücü have failed to score in 33% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Ankaragücü home games / Trabzonspor away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Ankaragücü play Trabzonspor?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 67% of Ankaragücü's games and 67% of Trabzonspor's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Ankaragücü vs Trabzonspor usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 83% of Ankaragücü's matches and 67% of Trabzonspor's.
Do Ankaragücü and Trabzonspor tend to score early?
Ankaragücü have had a goal before half-time in 83% of their recent matches, Trabzonspor in 83% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Ankaragücü and Trabzonspor share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Ankaragücü and Trabzonspor finished level at 1-1 at Eryaman Stadyumu, Regular Season - 14, in the Süper Lig. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Ankaragücü 1.60 xG and Trabzonspor 1.93 xG, a combined 3.52. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Trabzonspor landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Ankaragücü attack 1.01 / defence 1.22 against Trabzonspor attack 1.17 / defence 1.05, drawn from 12/50 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Ankaragücü 32% | Draw 22% | Trabzonspor 46%, with Trabzonspor to win its most likely call at 46%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 22% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 68%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 87% and landed. Over 3.5 was 47% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 68% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Ankaragücü 67%, Trabzonspor 50%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Ankaragücü's trading profile (12 games, 6 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 75% of their matches — today it did.
Trabzonspor's trading profile (12 games, 6 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Trabzonspor arrived the stronger side — 1.83 PPG against 1.00. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Trabzonspor (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.83 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 1 against a 1.83 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.