Ankaragücü 0-1 Trabzonspor – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Trabzonspor at 44%, yet other data sources diverge — this Ankaragücü vs Trabzonspor fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Eryaman Stadyumu plays host to Ankaragücü versus Trabzonspor in Süper Lig, Regular Season - 19. Kick-off: Saturday 6 January 2024 at 16:00 UTC.
Form
Ankaragücü (all games): 3W 5D 2L across 10 Süper Lig fixtures this term — 1.40 PPG. Last five: W D D D D. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Ankaragücü, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Eryaman Stadyumu, Ankaragücü have gone 2W 5D 3L this season (10 games, 1.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game.
Trabzonspor's overall Süper Lig record this term: 5W 3D 2L from 10 games (1.80 PPG). Last five: D L W W D. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.10. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Trabzonspor, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Trabzonspor's away record: 4W 2D 4L from 10 road trips in Süper Lig this season (1.40 PPG). They are averaging 1.90 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.40 PPG for Ankaragücü against 1.80 for Trabzonspor. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 2 meetings: Ankaragücü 0W, Trabzonspor 1W, 1D.
The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 8 May 2023, ended 0–2 with Trabzonspor winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Ankaragücü — key trading statistics (52 games, 26 at home): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 71% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games).
Trabzonspor — key trading statistics (52 games, 26 at away): they score before half-time in 84% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; BTTS occurs in 73% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 73% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 42%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Ankaragücü 64% and Trabzonspor 58% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Ankaragücü 52% | Trabzonspor 62%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Ankaragücü 1.15 xG and Trabzonspor 1.52 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Ankaragücü attack 0.751 / defence 0.927 | Trabzonspor attack 1.313 / defence 1.010. League average goals — home 1.517 / away 1.249. Ankaragücü's attack strength of 0.751 is below the league average — the 1.15 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Trabzonspor have an above-average attack strength of 1.313 — the away xG of 1.52 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 53 Ankaragücü games / 52 Trabzonspor games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Ankaragücü 27% | Draw 29% | Trabzonspor 44%. Fair-value odds: Ankaragücü 3.70 | Draw 3.45 | Trabzonspor 2.27. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 2.67. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.67 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Trabzonspor as the most likely outcome at 44% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Trabzonspor if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.67 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 50% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 55% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Ankaragücü 50% | Trabzonspor 70% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Ankaragücü vs Trabzonspor | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 19 | Venue: Eryaman Stadyumu • Kick-off: Saturday 6 Jan 2024, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Ankaragücü 27% | Draw 29% | Trabzonspor 44% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 50% | BTTS 55% | xG Ankaragücü 1.15 / Trabzonspor 1.52 • Poisson strength factors: Ankaragücü attack 0.751 / def 0.927 | Trabzonspor attack 1.313 / def 1.010 | league avg home 1.517 / away 1.249 • Poisson stance: Trabzonspor (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.15
Ankaragücü xG
Expected Goals
1.52
Trabzonspor xG
55%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
50%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Ankaragücü vs Trabzonspor kick off?
Ankaragücü vs Trabzonspor kicked off at 16:00 on Saturday 6 January 2024 at Eryaman Stadyumu.
What was the final score in Ankaragücü vs Trabzonspor?
Ankaragücü 0 - 1 Trabzonspor.
Where is Ankaragücü vs Trabzonspor being played?
The match is being played at Eryaman Stadyumu.
What competition is Ankaragücü vs Trabzonspor part of?
Ankaragücü vs Trabzonspor is a Regular Season - 19 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Ankaragücü vs Trabzonspor?
Our statistical model gives Ankaragücü a 27% chance of winning, Trabzonspor a 44% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Trabzonspor the favourite.
Will both teams score in Ankaragücü vs Trabzonspor?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both Ankaragücü and Trabzonspor will score (BTTS).
Will Ankaragücü vs Trabzonspor have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 50%.
What is the head-to-head record between Ankaragücü and Trabzonspor?
Record (2 meetings): Ankaragücü 0W | Draws 1 | Trabzonspor 1W.
What form are Ankaragücü and Trabzonspor in?
Ankaragücü (all comps): 3W-5D-2L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-D-D-D-D. Trabzonspor (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.10 | L5 D-L-W-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Ankaragücü's attack rating (0.75) and Trabzonspor's defence rating (1.01), the model arrives at 1.15 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Trabzonspor's attack (1.31x) against Ankaragücü's defence (0.93x) — and the away total comes out at 1.52.
These ratings are built from 53/52 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.7%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.2%), 0-1 (8.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Trabzonspor Win
27%
3.72
29%
3.42
44%
2.28
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.1%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.5%
Away win
1 – 2
9.2%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.15
Ankaragücü xG
Total xG
2.67
1.52
Trabzonspor xG
3.72
27%
Home win
3.42
29%
Draw
2.28
44%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
50%
Over 2.5
2.00
50%
Under 2.5
2.00
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.81
45%
BTTS No
2.24
Clean Sheet
22%
4.57
32%
3.16
Win to Nil
6%
16.98
14%
7.21
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.9 | 10.5 | 8.0 | 4.0 | 1.5 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 8.0 | 12.1 | 9.2 | 4.7 | 1.8 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 4.6 | 7.0 | 5.3 | 2.7 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 1.8 | 2.7 | 2.0 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.8 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Ankaragücü vs Trabzonspor?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.7%.
How many goals are Ankaragücü and Trabzonspor expected to score?
The model projects 1.15 expected goals for Ankaragücü and 1.52 for Trabzonspor, a combined total of 2.67.
How confident is the prediction model for Ankaragücü vs Trabzonspor?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Ankaragücü's recent record stands at 16W 13D 23L from 52 games, a 1.17 PPG return, with W-D-D-D-D in the last five. The sample for Ankaragücü is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Trabzonspor, meanwhile, have gone 25W 9D 18L across 52 games — 1.62 PPG, with D-L-W-W-D in their last five. The sample for Trabzonspor is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Trabzonspor by 0.45 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Ankaragücü heading into this one.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Ankaragücü have managed 8W 8D 10L from 26 games — 1.23 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Trabzonspor's away record stands at 8W 4D 14L across 26 trips, a 1.08 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.62 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Trabzonspor's season.
Attack vs Defence
Ankaragücü are averaging 1.25 goals scored and 1.44 conceded per game recently; Trabzonspor are on 1.75 scored and 1.44 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Ankaragücü have seen both teams score in 63% of their recent games.
Last 52 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Ankaragücü
Blended
Trabzonspor
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Ankaragücü and Trabzonspor in coming into this match?
Ankaragücü have gone 16W 13D 23L in their last 52 games (1.17 PPG), while Trabzonspor have gone 25W 9D 18L in their last 52 (1.62 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Ankaragücü at home or Trabzonspor away?
Ankaragücü's home record (1.23 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Ankaragücü at home: 1.23 PPG; Trabzonspor away: 1.08 PPG.
Have Ankaragücü or Trabzonspor been keeping clean sheets recently?
Ankaragücü have kept a clean sheet in 19% of their recent games, Trabzonspor in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 4 times that we have on record, stretching back to November 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. It has been a while since the last meeting — 26 May 2024, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
Trabzonspor go into this on the back of 3 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Ankaragücü have gone 0W 1D 1L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Trabzonspor — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
0
Ankaragücü
1
Draws
3
Trabzonspor
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Ankaragücü and Trabzonspor?
From 4 meetings on record, Ankaragücü have won 0, Trabzonspor have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Ankaragücü and Trabzonspor last play each other?
They last met on 26 May 2024, when Trabzonspor 4-2 Ankaragücü.
Who has won more matches between Ankaragücü and Trabzonspor?
Trabzonspor have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Ankaragücü are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches.
Trabzonspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 84% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 62% for Ankaragücü, 73% for Trabzonspor — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 50% for Ankaragücü and 73% for Trabzonspor. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 23% and 54% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Ankaragücü have failed to score in 27% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Ankaragücü home games / Trabzonspor away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Ankaragücü play Trabzonspor?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 62% of Ankaragücü's games and 73% of Trabzonspor's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Ankaragücü vs Trabzonspor usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 50% of Ankaragücü's matches and 73% of Trabzonspor's.
Do Ankaragücü and Trabzonspor tend to score early?
Ankaragücü have had a goal before half-time in 69% of their recent matches, Trabzonspor in 84% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Trabzonspor edge out Ankaragücü 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Trabzonspor beat Ankaragücü 0-1 at Eryaman Stadyumu, Regular Season - 19, in the Süper Lig. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Ankaragücü 1.15 xG and Trabzonspor 1.52 xG, a combined 2.67. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Ankaragücü fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Ankaragücü attack 0.75 / defence 0.93 against Trabzonspor attack 1.31 / defence 1.01, drawn from 53/52 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Ankaragücü 27% | Draw 29% | Trabzonspor 44%, with Trabzonspor to win its most likely call at 44%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 76% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Ankaragücü 52%, Trabzonspor 62%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 61%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Ankaragücü's trading profile (52 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did not.
Trabzonspor's trading profile (52 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Trabzonspor arrived the stronger side — 1.62 PPG against 1.17. That form edge translated into the three points. Ankaragücü (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.27 scoring average — below par going forward. Trabzonspor (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 2.12 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.