Amed 5-0 Başakşehir – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Amed at 44%, yet other data sources diverge — this Amed vs Başakşehir fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Süper Lig clash, Regular Season - 5 as Amed welcome Başakşehir to Diyarbakir Stadium. Kick-off is set for Sunday 13 September 2026 at 17:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Süper Lig games this season, Amed have gone 2W 1D 1L from 4 outings — a 1.75 PPG return. Last five: W L W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.75 goals per game, with 1.25 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 4 outings provides some defensive foundation. Amed have played only a handful of Süper Lig games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Başakşehir stand at 5W 2D 3L from 10 Süper Lig matches — 1.70 PPG. Last five: W W L D L. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Başakşehir have played only a handful of Süper Lig games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
When travelling in Süper Lig this season, Başakşehir have posted 5W 2D 3L from 10 away outings — 1.70 PPG. Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Amed at 1.75 PPG versus Başakşehir's 1.70. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
Trading Patterns
Amed in-play and half-time data (4 games): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures; when trailing at the break they recover to draw or win in 25% of cases; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 75% of games.
Başakşehir in-play and half-time data (4 games): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures; they lead at the break 50% of the time; when winning at HT they fail to see it out 25% of the time; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Amed 50% and Başakşehir 75% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Amed 75% | Başakşehir 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Amed 1.56 xG and Başakşehir 1.27 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Amed attack 1.088 / defence 1.003 | Başakşehir attack 0.995 / defence 0.948. League average goals — home 1.513 / away 1.276. Data: 4 Amed games / 38 Başakşehir games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Amed 44% | Draw 25% | Başakşehir 31%. Fair-value odds: Amed 2.27 | Draw 4.00 | Başakşehir 3.23. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 25% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 54% | BTTS probability 57% | Total xG 2.83. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 54%/46% — the total xG of 2.83 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 57% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Amed at 44% — marginal model lean. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Amed offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.83 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 54% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 57%. Form rates corroborate: Amed 50% | Başakşehir 60% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Amed vs Başakşehir | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 5 | Venue: Diyarbakir Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 13 Sep 2026, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Amed 44% | Draw 25% | Başakşehir 31% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 54% | BTTS 57% | xG Amed 1.56 / Başakşehir 1.27 • Poisson strength factors: Amed attack 1.088 / def 1.003 | Başakşehir attack 0.995 / def 0.948 | league avg home 1.513 / away 1.276 • Poisson stance: Amed (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.56
Amed xG
Expected Goals
1.27
Başakşehir xG
57%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
54%
Over 2.5
32%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Amed vs Başakşehir kick off?
Amed vs Başakşehir kicked off at 17:00 on Sunday 13 September 2026 at Diyarbakir Stadium.
What was the final score in Amed vs Başakşehir?
Amed 5 - 0 Başakşehir.
Where is Amed vs Başakşehir being played?
The match is being played at Diyarbakir Stadium.
What competition is Amed vs Başakşehir part of?
Amed vs Başakşehir is a Regular Season - 5 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Amed vs Başakşehir?
Our statistical model gives Amed a 44% chance of winning, Başakşehir a 31% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Amed the favourite.
Will both teams score in Amed vs Başakşehir?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both Amed and Başakşehir will score (BTTS).
Will Amed vs Başakşehir have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 54%.
What is the head-to-head record between Amed and Başakşehir?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Amed and Başakşehir in?
Amed (all comps): 2W-1D-1L in 4 | 1.75 PPG | GF 1.75 / GA 1.25 | L5 W-L-W-D. Başakşehir (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-W-L-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Amed's attack at 1.09x the league average against Başakşehir's defence at 0.95x — combine the two and it projects 1.56 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Başakşehir's attack versus Amed's defence, projects 1.27 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 4/38 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.1%), 1-0 (7.7%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Amed Win
44%
2.27
25%
4.03
31%
3.21
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.7%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.2%
Home win
2 – 1
9.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.56
Amed xG
Total xG
2.83
1.27
Başakşehir xG
2.27
44%
Home win
4.03
25%
Draw
3.21
31%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
54%
Over 2.5
1.85
46%
Under 2.5
2.17
32%
Over 3.5
3.12
68%
Under 3.5
1.47
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.76
43%
BTTS No
2.32
Clean Sheet
28%
3.58
21%
4.76
Win to Nil
12%
8.12
7%
15.27
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.9 | 7.5 | 4.8 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 9.2 | 11.7 | 7.4 | 3.2 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 7.2 | 9.1 | 5.8 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.7 | 4.7 | 3.0 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.5 | 1.8 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Amed vs Başakşehir?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.2%.
How many goals are Amed and Başakşehir expected to score?
The model projects 1.56 expected goals for Amed and 1.27 for Başakşehir, a combined total of 2.83.
How confident is the prediction model for Amed vs Başakşehir?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 4 outings, Amed have picked up 1.75 PPG on a 2W 1D 1L record — W-L-W-D across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Amed, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Başakşehir's form line: 1W 1D 2L from 4 games, 1.00 PPG, last five W-L-D-L. It's still early in the season for Başakşehir, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Put side by side, Amed are the form team by 0.75 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Başakşehir.
The Goals Picture
Amed are averaging 1.75 goals scored and 1.25 conceded per game recently; Başakşehir are on 1.50 scored and 1.50 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Başakşehir in 75%.
Last 4 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Amed
Early Season
Başakşehir
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Amed and Başakşehir in coming into this match?
Amed have gone 2W 1D 1L in their last 4 games (1.75 PPG), while Başakşehir have gone 1W 1D 2L in their last 4 (1.00 PPG).
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Amed and Başakşehir runs to 1 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to September 2026. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. The two were last together as recently as 13 September 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Last 1 Meetings
1
Amed
0
Draws
0
Başakşehir
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Amed and Başakşehir?
From 1 meetings on record, Amed have won 1, Başakşehir have won 0, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Amed and Başakşehir last play each other?
They last met on 13 September 2026, when Amed 5-0 Başakşehir.
Who has won more matches between Amed and Başakşehir?
Amed have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 1 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Amed are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
Başakşehir are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Amed 50%, Başakşehir 75% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 75% for Amed and 50% for Başakşehir. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 25% and 25% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Amed home games / Başakşehir away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Amed play Başakşehir?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 50% of Amed's games and 75% of Başakşehir's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Amed vs Başakşehir usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 75% of Amed's matches and 50% of Başakşehir's.
Do Amed and Başakşehir tend to score early?
Amed have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, Başakşehir in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Amed run riot with a 5-0 hammering of Başakşehir.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Amed beat Başakşehir 5-0 at Diyarbakir Stadium, Regular Season - 5, in the Süper Lig. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Amed 1.56 xG and Başakşehir 1.27 xG, a combined 2.83. The scoreboard read 5-0 for 5 actual goals. Amed beat their projection by 3.4 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Başakşehir landed 1.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Amed attack 1.09 / defence 1.00 against Başakşehir attack 0.99 / defence 0.95, drawn from 4/38 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Amed 44% | Draw 25% | Başakşehir 31%, with Amed to win its most likely call at 44%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. Over 3.5 was 32% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 62% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Amed 75%, Başakşehir 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Amed's trading profile (4 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not.
Başakşehir's trading profile (4 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 75% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Amed arrived the stronger side — 1.75 PPG against 1.00. That form edge translated into the three points. Amed scored 5 against a 1.75 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.25 average — tighter than their form line. Başakşehir managed 0 against a 1.50 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 5 against a 1.50 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.