Altay 1-2 Antalyaspor – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Altay at 37%, yet in-form Antalyaspor provide a compelling counter-argument — this Altay vs Antalyaspor fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Süper Lig encounter, Regular Season - 31 sees Antalyaspor travel to Alsancak Mustafa Denizli Stadı to take on Altay. The game is scheduled for Saturday 2 April 2022, 14:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Süper Lig games this season, Altay have gone 3W 2D 5L from 10 outings — a 1.10 PPG return. Last five: L W D W L. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.
Altay's form when playing at home: 2W 2D 6L across 10 games at Alsancak Mustafa Denizli Stadı this term (0.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game.
Antalyaspor — All Games: 5W 4D 1L from 10 Süper Lig fixtures this season — 1.90 PPG. Last five: W D W W W. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 0.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.50 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not.
Antalyaspor's away record: 2W 2D 6L from 10 road trips in Süper Lig this season (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 0.50 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 0.80 is notably below their overall 1.90 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Antalyaspor are 0.80 PPG ahead (1.90 vs 1.10), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 1 previous meetings, Altay have won 0, Antalyaspor 1, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
These sides have historically produced few goals — 1.0 per contest from 1 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 6 Nov 2021, ended 0–1 with Antalyaspor winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Profile
Altay in-play tendencies (30 games, 14 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); they fail to score in 37% of games.
Antalyaspor in-play tendencies (30 games, 14 at away): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 36% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (away games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Altay 53% versus Antalyaspor 47%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Altay 53% | Antalyaspor 47%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Altay 0.98 xG and Antalyaspor 0.86 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Altay attack 0.733 / defence 1.175 | Antalyaspor attack 0.593 / defence 1.079. League average goals — home 1.244 / away 1.242. Altay's attack strength of 0.733 is below the league average — the 0.98 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 30 Altay games / 30 Antalyaspor games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Altay 37% | Draw 33% | Antalyaspor 30%. Fair-value odds: Altay 2.70 | Draw 3.03 | Antalyaspor 3.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 33% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 28% | BTTS probability 37% | Total xG 1.85. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 72% probability — total xG of 1.85 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 37% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Altay are the pick at 37% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Antalyaspor (1.90 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 33% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Altay offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 1.85 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 28% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.1 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 37% on No. Form rates corroborate: Altay 50% | Antalyaspor 30% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Altay vs Antalyaspor | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 31 | Venue: Alsancak Mustafa Denizli Stadı • Kick-off: Saturday 2 Apr 2022, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Altay 37% | Draw 33% | Antalyaspor 30% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 28% | BTTS 37% | xG Altay 0.98 / Antalyaspor 0.86 • Poisson strength factors: Altay attack 0.733 / def 1.175 | Antalyaspor attack 0.593 / def 1.079 | league avg home 1.244 / away 1.242 • Poisson stance: Altay (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.98
Altay xG
Expected Goals
0.86
Antalyaspor xG
37%
BTTS
55%
Over 1.5
28%
Over 2.5
12%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Altay vs Antalyaspor kick off?
Altay vs Antalyaspor kicked off at 14:00 on Saturday 2 April 2022 at Alsancak Mustafa Denizli Stadı.
What was the final score in Altay vs Antalyaspor?
Altay 1 - 2 Antalyaspor.
Where is Altay vs Antalyaspor being played?
The match is being played at Alsancak Mustafa Denizli Stadı.
What competition is Altay vs Antalyaspor part of?
Altay vs Antalyaspor is a Regular Season - 31 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Altay vs Antalyaspor?
Our statistical model gives Altay a 37% chance of winning, Antalyaspor a 30% chance, and a 33% chance of a draw — making Altay the favourite.
Will both teams score in Altay vs Antalyaspor?
Our model estimates a 37% probability that both Altay and Antalyaspor will score (BTTS).
Will Altay vs Antalyaspor have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 28%.
What is the head-to-head record between Altay and Antalyaspor?
Record (1 meetings): Altay 0W | Draws 0 | Antalyaspor 1W.
What form are Altay and Antalyaspor in?
Altay (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.00 | L5 L-W-D-W-L. Antalyaspor (all comps): 5W-4D-1L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 0.50 | L5 W-D-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Altay's attack at 0.73x the league average against Antalyaspor's defence at 1.08x — combine the two and it projects 0.98 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Antalyaspor's attack versus Altay's defence, projects 0.86 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 30/30 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 0-0 carries the highest individual probability at 17.5% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (15.1%), 1-0 (13.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 46% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Altay Win
37%
2.72
33%
3.05
30%
3.29
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 0
15.7%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
15.5%
Home win
0 – 1
13.6%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.98
Altay xG
Total xG
1.85
0.86
Antalyaspor xG
2.72
37%
Home win
3.05
33%
Draw
3.29
30%
Away win
Goals Markets
55%
Over 1.5
1.82
45%
Under 1.5
2.22
28%
Over 2.5
3.57
72%
Under 2.5
1.39
12%
Over 3.5
8.33
88%
Under 3.5
1.14
4%
Over 4.5
25.00
96%
Under 4.5
1.04
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
37%
BTTS Yes
2.74
63%
BTTS No
1.58
Clean Sheet
42%
2.38
37%
2.68
Win to Nil
16%
6.45
11%
8.81
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 15.7 | 13.6 | 5.9 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 15.5 | 13.4 | 5.8 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.6 | 6.6 | 2.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 2.5 | 2.2 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Altay vs Antalyaspor?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 17.5%.
How many goals are Altay and Antalyaspor expected to score?
The model projects 0.98 expected goals for Altay and 0.86 for Antalyaspor, a combined total of 1.85.
How confident is the prediction model for Altay vs Antalyaspor?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Altay's recent record stands at 8W 5D 17L from 30 games, a 0.97 PPG return, with L-W-D-W-L in the last five.
Antalyaspor, meanwhile, have gone 11W 8D 11L across 30 games — 1.37 PPG, with W-D-W-W-W in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Antalyaspor by 0.40 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Altay heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Altay have managed 5W 2D 7L from 14 games — 1.21 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Antalyaspor's away record stands at 3W 4D 7L across 14 trips, a 0.93 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.37 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Antalyaspor's season.
Goals in Recent Form
Altay are averaging 1.03 goals scored and 1.43 conceded per game recently; Antalyaspor are on 1.13 scored and 1.20 conceded.
Last 30 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Altay
Current Season
Antalyaspor
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Altay and Antalyaspor in coming into this match?
Altay have gone 8W 5D 17L in their last 30 games (0.97 PPG), while Antalyaspor have gone 11W 8D 11L in their last 30 (1.37 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Altay at home or Antalyaspor away?
Altay's home record (1.21 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Altay at home: 1.21 PPG; Antalyaspor away: 0.93 PPG.
Have Altay or Antalyaspor been keeping clean sheets recently?
Altay have kept a clean sheet in 20% of their recent games, Antalyaspor in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
2 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. It has been a while since the last meeting — 2 April 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Altay
0
Draws
2
Antalyaspor
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Altay and Antalyaspor?
From 2 meetings on record, Altay have won 0, Antalyaspor have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Altay and Antalyaspor last play each other?
They last met on 2 April 2022, when Altay 1-2 Antalyaspor.
Who has won more matches between Altay and Antalyaspor?
Antalyaspor have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Altay are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches.
Antalyaspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Altay 50%, Antalyaspor 36% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Altay) and 43% (Antalyaspor).
On the defensive side: Altay have failed to score in 36% of games; Antalyaspor in 57%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Altay home games / Antalyaspor away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Altay play Antalyaspor?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Altay's recent matches and 36% of Antalyaspor's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Altay vs Antalyaspor usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Altay's recent games and 43% of Antalyaspor's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Altay and Antalyaspor tend to score early?
Altay have had a goal before half-time in 71% of their recent matches, Antalyaspor in 64% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Antalyaspor defy the odds to beat Altay 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Antalyaspor beat Altay 1-2 at Alsancak Mustafa Denizli Stadı, Regular Season - 31, in the Süper Lig. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Altay 0.98 xG and Antalyaspor 0.86 xG, a combined 1.85. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Antalyaspor outscored their 0.86 projection by 1.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Altay attack 0.73 / defence 1.18 against Antalyaspor attack 0.59 / defence 1.08, drawn from 30/30 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Altay 37% | Draw 33% | Antalyaspor 30%, with Altay to win its most likely call at 37%. The actual Antalyaspor win had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 28%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 55% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 37% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Altay 53%, Antalyaspor 47%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Altay's trading profile (30 games, 14 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did.
Antalyaspor's trading profile (30 games, 14 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Antalyaspor arrived the stronger side — 1.37 PPG against 0.97. Form held, and they took the win. Antalyaspor (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.64 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.