Alanyaspor 3-1 Trabzonspor – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Trabzonspor (42%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Alanyaspor face Trabzonspor.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Alanyaspor and Trabzonspor meet at Kırbıyık Holding Stadyumu in Süper Lig, Regular Season - 28. This fixture gets under way on Monday 4 March 2024 at 17:00 UTC.
Current Form
Alanyaspor's overall Süper Lig record this term: 1W 7D 2L from 10 games (1.00 PPG). Last five: D L D D D. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Alanyaspor, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Kırbıyık Holding Stadyumu, Alanyaspor have gone 3W 4D 3L this season (10 games, 1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Trabzonspor (all games): 5W 1D 4L across 10 Süper Lig outings this term — 1.60 points per game. Last five: L L W W W. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Trabzonspor, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Trabzonspor have gone 5W 3D 2L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.80 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game.
Trabzonspor arrive in superior form — a 0.60 PPG advantage (1.60 vs 1.00) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 5 meetings: Alanyaspor 1W, Trabzonspor 3W, 1D.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.6 goals per game across 5 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 23 Oct 2023, ended 0–1 with Trabzonspor winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.6 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading
Alanyaspor half-time and goal-timing data (62 games, 31 at home): they score before half-time in 63% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 44%.
Trabzonspor half-time and goal-timing data (62 games, 31 at away): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 61% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 39%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Alanyaspor 56% versus Trabzonspor 55%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Alanyaspor 63% | Trabzonspor 56%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Alanyaspor 1.37 xG and Trabzonspor 1.65 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Alanyaspor attack 1.045 / defence 1.295 | Trabzonspor attack 1.095 / defence 0.912. League average goals — home 1.432 / away 1.163. Data: 63 Alanyaspor games / 62 Trabzonspor games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Alanyaspor 29% | Draw 29% | Trabzonspor 42%. Fair-value odds: Alanyaspor 3.45 | Draw 3.45 | Trabzonspor 2.38. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 58% | BTTS probability 63% | Total xG 3.02. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 58% — the 3.02 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 63% reflects that both xG figures (1.37 / 1.65) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Trabzonspor at 42% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Trabzonspor if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 3.02 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 58% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.6 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 63% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Alanyaspor 80% | Trabzonspor 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Alanyaspor vs Trabzonspor | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 28 | Venue: Kırbıyık Holding Stadyumu • Kick-off: Monday 4 Mar 2024, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Alanyaspor 29% | Draw 29% | Trabzonspor 42% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 58% | BTTS 63% | xG Alanyaspor 1.37 / Trabzonspor 1.65 • Poisson strength factors: Alanyaspor attack 1.045 / def 1.295 | Trabzonspor attack 1.095 / def 0.912 | league avg home 1.432 / away 1.163 • Poisson stance: Trabzonspor (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.37
Alanyaspor xG
Expected Goals
1.65
Trabzonspor xG
63%
BTTS
83%
Over 1.5
58%
Over 2.5
36%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Alanyaspor vs Trabzonspor kick off?
Alanyaspor vs Trabzonspor kicked off at 17:00 on Monday 4 March 2024 at Kırbıyık Holding Stadyumu.
What was the final score in Alanyaspor vs Trabzonspor?
Alanyaspor 3 - 1 Trabzonspor.
Where is Alanyaspor vs Trabzonspor being played?
The match is being played at Kırbıyık Holding Stadyumu.
What competition is Alanyaspor vs Trabzonspor part of?
Alanyaspor vs Trabzonspor is a Regular Season - 28 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Alanyaspor vs Trabzonspor?
Our statistical model gives Alanyaspor a 29% chance of winning, Trabzonspor a 42% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Trabzonspor the favourite.
Will both teams score in Alanyaspor vs Trabzonspor?
Our model estimates a 63% probability that both Alanyaspor and Trabzonspor will score (BTTS).
Will Alanyaspor vs Trabzonspor have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 58%.
What is the head-to-head record between Alanyaspor and Trabzonspor?
Record (5 meetings): Alanyaspor 1W | Draws 1 | Trabzonspor 3W.
What form are Alanyaspor and Trabzonspor in?
Alanyaspor (all comps): 1W-7D-2L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.50 | L5 D-L-D-D-D. Trabzonspor (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-L-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Alanyaspor's attack at 1.04x the league average against Trabzonspor's defence at 0.91x — combine the two and it projects 1.37 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Trabzonspor's attack (1.09x) against Alanyaspor's defence (1.29x) — and the away total comes out at 1.65.
These ratings are built from 63/62 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.5% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (9.1%), 2-1 (7.5%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Trabzonspor Win
29%
3.41
29%
3.46
42%
2.40
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.0%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.1%
Away win
0 – 1
8.1%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.37
Alanyaspor xG
Total xG
3.02
1.65
Trabzonspor xG
3.41
29%
Home win
3.46
29%
Draw
2.40
42%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
58%
Over 2.5
1.72
42%
Under 2.5
2.38
36%
Over 3.5
2.78
64%
Under 3.5
1.56
19%
Over 4.5
5.26
81%
Under 4.5
1.23
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
63%
BTTS Yes
1.60
37%
BTTS No
2.68
Clean Sheet
19%
5.20
26%
3.92
Win to Nil
6%
17.74
11%
9.39
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.9 | 8.1 | 6.7 | 3.7 | 1.5 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 6.7 | 11.0 | 9.1 | 5.0 | 2.1 | 0.7 |
| 2 | 4.6 | 7.5 | 6.2 | 3.4 | 1.4 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 2.1 | 3.4 | 2.8 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 1.2 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Alanyaspor vs Trabzonspor?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.5%.
How many goals are Alanyaspor and Trabzonspor expected to score?
The model projects 1.37 expected goals for Alanyaspor and 1.65 for Trabzonspor, a combined total of 3.02.
How confident is the prediction model for Alanyaspor vs Trabzonspor?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Alanyaspor come into this having played 62 games, going 16W 20D 26L for 1.10 points per game. Their last five reads D-L-D-D-D. The sample for Alanyaspor is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Trabzonspor sit at 1.61 PPG from 62 outings (30W 10D 22L), a run that reads L-L-W-W-W across their last five. The sample for Trabzonspor is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Trabzonspor carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.51 PPG clear of Alanyaspor — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home & Away Splits
Alanyaspor's home form reads 12W 10D 9L across 31 games on their own ground, a 1.48 PPG return.
Away from home, Trabzonspor have taken 1.13 points per game from 31 outings (10W 5D 16L). That's a step down from their 1.61 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Trabzonspor's season.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Alanyaspor are averaging 1.32 goals scored and 1.74 conceded per game recently; Trabzonspor are on 1.66 scored and 1.42 conceded.
Last 62 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Alanyaspor
Blended
Trabzonspor
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Alanyaspor and Trabzonspor in coming into this match?
Alanyaspor have gone 16W 20D 26L in their last 62 games (1.10 PPG), while Trabzonspor have gone 30W 10D 22L in their last 62 (1.61 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Alanyaspor at home or Trabzonspor away?
Alanyaspor's home record (1.48 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Alanyaspor at home: 1.48 PPG; Trabzonspor away: 1.13 PPG.
Have Alanyaspor or Trabzonspor been keeping clean sheets recently?
Alanyaspor have kept a clean sheet in 21% of their recent games, Trabzonspor in 34%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since September 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. They last met on 11 April 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Alanyaspor won 5-0 on 9 Jan 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Alanyaspor have gone 3W 1D 1L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Trabzonspor — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Alanyaspor
3
Draws
4
Trabzonspor
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Alanyaspor and Trabzonspor?
From 10 meetings on record, Alanyaspor have won 3, Trabzonspor have won 4, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Alanyaspor and Trabzonspor last play each other?
They last met on 11 April 2026, when Alanyaspor 1-1 Trabzonspor.
Who has won more matches between Alanyaspor and Trabzonspor?
Trabzonspor have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Alanyaspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 63% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 43% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Trabzonspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Alanyaspor 58%, Trabzonspor 64% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 64% for Alanyaspor and 61% for Trabzonspor. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 39% and 45% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Alanyaspor home games / Trabzonspor away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Alanyaspor play Trabzonspor?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 58% of Alanyaspor's games and 64% of Trabzonspor's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Alanyaspor vs Trabzonspor usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 64% of Alanyaspor's matches and 61% of Trabzonspor's.
Do Alanyaspor and Trabzonspor tend to score early?
Alanyaspor have had a goal before half-time in 63% of their recent matches, Trabzonspor in 80% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Alanyaspor cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Trabzonspor.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Alanyaspor beat Trabzonspor 3-1 at Kırbıyık Holding Stadyumu, Regular Season - 28, in the Süper Lig. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Alanyaspor 1.37 xG and Trabzonspor 1.65 xG, a combined 3.02. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Alanyaspor beat their projection by 1.6 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Alanyaspor attack 1.04 / defence 1.29 against Trabzonspor attack 1.09 / defence 0.91, drawn from 63/62 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Alanyaspor 29% | Draw 29% | Trabzonspor 42%, with Trabzonspor to win its most likely call at 42%. The actual Alanyaspor win had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 58%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 83% and landed. Over 3.5 was 36% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 63% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Alanyaspor 63%, Trabzonspor 56%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Alanyaspor's trading profile (62 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.
Trabzonspor's trading profile (62 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Trabzonspor arrived the stronger side — 1.61 PPG against 1.10. Form was overturned, with Alanyaspor winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Alanyaspor (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.58 average — above their attacking norm. Trabzonspor (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.90 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.