Alanyaspor 1-0 Ümraniyespor – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Alanyaspor at 51%, yet other data sources diverge — this Alanyaspor vs Ümraniyespor fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Süper Lig encounter, Regular Season - 32 sees Ümraniyespor travel to Kırbıyık Holding Stadyumu to take on Alanyaspor. The game is scheduled for Friday 28 April 2023, 18:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Alanyaspor stand at 3W 1D 6L from 10 Süper Lig matches — 1.00 PPG. Last five: D W L L W. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
Alanyaspor's home record at Kırbıyık Holding Stadyumu: 5W 2D 3L from 10 Süper Lig appearances (1.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Kırbıyık Holding Stadyumu. Their home PPG of 1.70 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.00 — Alanyaspor are significantly better at Kırbıyık Holding Stadyumu than their overall form suggests.
Ümraniyespor — All Games: 2W 3D 5L from 10 Süper Lig fixtures this season — 0.90 PPG. Last five: D D L L L. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 2.00. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play.
Ümraniyespor's away record: 3W 2D 5L from 10 road trips in Süper Lig this season (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 2.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 90% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Alanyaspor 1.00 PPG, Ümraniyespor 0.90 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for Alanyaspor, 1 for Ümraniyespor and 0 shared spoils from 1 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 1 meetings have averaged 4.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 4 Nov 2022, ended 1–3 with Ümraniyespor winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Alanyaspor trading profile (29 games, 14 at home): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 48%.
Ümraniyespor trading profile (29 games, 14 at away): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 79% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 45%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Alanyaspor 55% and Ümraniyespor 69% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Alanyaspor 69% | Ümraniyespor 62%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Alanyaspor 2.11 xG and Ümraniyespor 1.54 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Alanyaspor attack 1.021 / defence 1.081 | Ümraniyespor attack 1.009 / defence 1.206. League average goals — home 1.715 / away 1.408. Ümraniyespor bring a strong defensive rating of 1.206 — this is suppressing Alanyaspor's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 68 Alanyaspor games / 29 Ümraniyespor games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Alanyaspor 51% | Draw 21% | Ümraniyespor 28%. Fair-value odds: Alanyaspor 1.96 | Draw 4.76 | Ümraniyespor 3.57. Alanyaspor hold a narrow Poisson edge at 51% — the draw (21%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 71% | BTTS probability 69% | Total xG 3.65. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 71% — a total xG of 3.65 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 69% reflects that both xG figures (2.11 / 1.54) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Alanyaspor at 51% — moderate model lean. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 3.65 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 71% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.5 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 69% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Alanyaspor 40% | Ümraniyespor 90% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Alanyaspor vs Ümraniyespor | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 32 | Venue: Kırbıyık Holding Stadyumu • Kick-off: Friday 28 Apr 2023, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Alanyaspor 51% | Draw 21% | Ümraniyespor 28% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 71% | BTTS 69% | xG Alanyaspor 2.11 / Ümraniyespor 1.54 • Poisson strength factors: Alanyaspor attack 1.021 / def 1.081 | Ümraniyespor attack 1.009 / def 1.206 | league avg home 1.715 / away 1.408 • Poisson stance: Alanyaspor (51%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.11
Alanyaspor xG
Expected Goals
1.54
Ümraniyespor xG
69%
BTTS
88%
Over 1.5
71%
Over 2.5
50%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Alanyaspor vs Ümraniyespor kick off?
Alanyaspor vs Ümraniyespor kicked off at 18:00 on Friday 28 April 2023 at Kırbıyık Holding Stadyumu.
What was the final score in Alanyaspor vs Ümraniyespor?
Alanyaspor 1 - 0 Ümraniyespor.
Where is Alanyaspor vs Ümraniyespor being played?
The match is being played at Kırbıyık Holding Stadyumu.
What competition is Alanyaspor vs Ümraniyespor part of?
Alanyaspor vs Ümraniyespor is a Regular Season - 32 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Alanyaspor vs Ümraniyespor?
Our statistical model gives Alanyaspor a 51% chance of winning, Ümraniyespor a 28% chance, and a 21% chance of a draw — making Alanyaspor the favourite.
Will both teams score in Alanyaspor vs Ümraniyespor?
Our model estimates a 69% probability that both Alanyaspor and Ümraniyespor will score (BTTS).
Will Alanyaspor vs Ümraniyespor have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 71%.
What is the head-to-head record between Alanyaspor and Ümraniyespor?
Record (1 meetings): Alanyaspor 0W | Draws 0 | Ümraniyespor 1W.
What form are Alanyaspor and Ümraniyespor in?
Alanyaspor (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.90 | L5 D-W-L-L-W. Ümraniyespor (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 2.00 | L5 D-D-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Alanyaspor's attack at 1.02x the league average against Ümraniyespor's defence at 1.21x — combine the two and it projects 2.11 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Ümraniyespor's attack versus Alanyaspor's defence, projects 1.54 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 68/29 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 9.5% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (8.9%), 2-2 (6.9%). Together the top three scorelines make up 25% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Alanyaspor Win
51%
1.96
21%
4.77
28%
3.56
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
8.9%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
8.4%
Draw
2 – 2
6.9%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.11
Alanyaspor xG
Total xG
3.65
1.54
Ümraniyespor xG
1.96
51%
Home win
4.77
21%
Draw
3.56
28%
Away win
Goals Markets
88%
Over 1.5
1.14
12%
Under 1.5
8.33
71%
Over 2.5
1.41
29%
Under 2.5
3.45
50%
Over 3.5
2.00
50%
Under 3.5
2.00
30%
Over 4.5
3.33
70%
Under 4.5
1.43
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
69%
BTTS Yes
1.45
31%
BTTS No
3.22
Clean Sheet
22%
4.65
12%
8.26
Win to Nil
11%
9.12
3%
29.44
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.6 | 4.0 | 3.1 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 5.5 | 8.4 | 6.5 | 3.3 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.8 | 8.9 | 6.9 | 3.5 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 4.1 | 6.3 | 4.8 | 2.5 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 2.2 | 3.3 | 2.5 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 5 | 0.9 | 1.4 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Alanyaspor vs Ümraniyespor?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.5%.
How many goals are Alanyaspor and Ümraniyespor expected to score?
The model projects 2.11 expected goals for Alanyaspor and 1.54 for Ümraniyespor, a combined total of 3.65.
How confident is the prediction model for Alanyaspor vs Ümraniyespor?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 51%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Alanyaspor come into this having played 29 games, going 8W 8D 13L for 1.10 points per game. Their last five reads D-W-L-L-W.
On the other side, Ümraniyespor sit at 0.79 PPG from 29 outings (5W 8D 16L), a run that reads D-D-L-L-L across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Alanyaspor on 1.10 PPG, Ümraniyespor on 0.79. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Alanyaspor's home form reads 7W 3D 4L across 14 games on their own ground, a 1.71 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.10 PPG overall — Alanyaspor are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Ümraniyespor have taken 0.93 points per game from 14 outings (3W 4D 7L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Alanyaspor come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Alanyaspor are averaging 1.41 goals scored and 1.83 conceded per game recently; Ümraniyespor are on 1.31 scored and 1.86 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Ümraniyespor in 69%.
Last 29 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Alanyaspor
Current Season
Ümraniyespor
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Alanyaspor and Ümraniyespor in coming into this match?
Alanyaspor have gone 8W 8D 13L in their last 29 games (1.10 PPG), while Ümraniyespor have gone 5W 8D 16L in their last 29 (0.79 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Alanyaspor at home or Ümraniyespor away?
Alanyaspor's home record (1.71 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Alanyaspor at home: 1.71 PPG; Ümraniyespor away: 0.93 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Alanyaspor and Ümraniyespor runs to 2 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to November 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. It has been a while since the last meeting — 28 April 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
1
Alanyaspor
0
Draws
1
Ümraniyespor
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Alanyaspor and Ümraniyespor?
From 2 meetings on record, Alanyaspor have won 1, Ümraniyespor have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Alanyaspor and Ümraniyespor last play each other?
They last met on 28 April 2023, when Alanyaspor 1-0 Ümraniyespor.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Alanyaspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 46% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 15% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Ümraniyespor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Alanyaspor 50%, Ümraniyespor 79% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 64% for Alanyaspor and 64% for Ümraniyespor. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 43% and 50% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Alanyaspor keep a clean sheet in 36% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Alanyaspor home games / Ümraniyespor away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Alanyaspor play Ümraniyespor?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 50% of Alanyaspor's games and 79% of Ümraniyespor's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Alanyaspor vs Ümraniyespor usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 64% of Alanyaspor's matches and 64% of Ümraniyespor's.
Do Alanyaspor and Ümraniyespor tend to score early?
Alanyaspor have had a goal before half-time in 62% of their recent matches, Ümraniyespor in 79% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Alanyaspor edge out Ümraniyespor 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Alanyaspor beat Ümraniyespor 1-0 at Kırbıyık Holding Stadyumu, Regular Season - 32, in the Süper Lig. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Alanyaspor 2.11 xG and Ümraniyespor 1.54 xG, a combined 3.65. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Alanyaspor fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Ümraniyespor landed 1.5 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Alanyaspor attack 1.02 / defence 1.08 against Ümraniyespor attack 1.01 / defence 1.21, drawn from 68/29 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Alanyaspor 51% | Draw 21% | Ümraniyespor 28%, with Alanyaspor to win its most likely call at 51%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 71%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 88% and missed. Over 3.5 was 50% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 69% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 66% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Alanyaspor 69%, Ümraniyespor 62%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Alanyaspor's trading profile (29 games, 14 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did not.
Ümraniyespor's trading profile (29 games, 14 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 69% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Alanyaspor 1.10 PPG, Ümraniyespor 0.79 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Alanyaspor win broke the near-deadlock. Alanyaspor (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.29 average — tighter than their form line. Ümraniyespor (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.50 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 1 against a 2.07 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.