Alanyaspor vs Konyaspor – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson rates Alanyaspor at 59% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Alanyaspor vs Konyaspor encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Süper Lig encounter, Regular Season - 13 sees Konyaspor travel to Alanya Oba Stadium to take on Alanyaspor. The game is scheduled for Sunday 29 November 2026, 12:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Alanyaspor — All Games: 2W 4D 4L from 10 Süper Lig outings this season, averaging 1.00 points per game. Last five: W L D W L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Alanyaspor have played only a handful of Süper Lig games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Alanyaspor at Alanya Oba Stadium this season: 4W 2D 4L from 10 home games — 1.40 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Konyaspor stand at 3W 0D 7L from 10 Süper Lig matches — 0.90 PPG. Last five: L L L L L. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Konyaspor have played only a handful of Süper Lig games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
On the road, Konyaspor have gone 2W 1D 7L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Alanyaspor 1.00 PPG, Konyaspor 0.90 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
Both teams score in over 70% of each side's relevant games (using home/away splits). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
H2H Record
The fixture history tells a clear story: Alanyaspor have dominated this rivalry, winning 6 of 10 past contests while Konyaspor have managed just 1 wins.
The 10 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.3 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 14 Feb 2026, ended 2–1 with Alanyaspor winning.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both Alanyaspor and goals. The home side's 6 wins from 10 meetings, combined with an average of 3.3 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.
In-Play Data
Alanyaspor trading profile (37 games, 18 at home): they score before half-time in 61% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (home games).
Konyaspor trading profile (37 games, 18 at away): they score before half-time in 72% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 72% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 61% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Alanyaspor 62% and Konyaspor 62% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Alanyaspor 46% | Konyaspor 54%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Alanyaspor 1.87 xG and Konyaspor 0.96 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Alanyaspor attack 1.040 / defence 0.867 | Konyaspor attack 0.905 / defence 1.239. League average goals — home 1.450 / away 1.220. Konyaspor bring a strong defensive rating of 1.239 — this is suppressing Alanyaspor's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 37 Alanyaspor games / 38 Konyaspor games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Alanyaspor 59% | Draw 22% | Konyaspor 19%. Fair-value odds: Alanyaspor 1.69 | Draw 4.55 | Konyaspor 5.26. The model has a clear lean to Alanyaspor (59%) — a 40pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 54% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.83. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 54%/46% — the total xG of 2.83 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Alanyaspor are the pick at 59% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 22% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.83 combined xG gives a 54% probability to Over 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.3 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 52% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Alanyaspor 70% | Konyaspor 70% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Alanyaspor vs Konyaspor | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 13 | Venue: Alanya Oba Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 29 Nov 2026, 12:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Alanyaspor 59% | Draw 22% | Konyaspor 19% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 54% | BTTS 52% | xG Alanyaspor 1.87 / Konyaspor 0.96 • Poisson strength factors: Alanyaspor attack 1.040 / def 0.867 | Konyaspor attack 0.905 / def 1.239 | league avg home 1.450 / away 1.220 • Poisson stance: Alanyaspor (59%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.87
Alanyaspor xG
Expected Goals
0.96
Konyaspor xG
52%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
54%
Over 2.5
31%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Alanyaspor vs Konyaspor kick off?
Alanyaspor vs Konyaspor is scheduled to kick off at 12:00 on Sunday 29 November 2026 at Alanya Oba Stadium.
Where is Alanyaspor vs Konyaspor being played?
The match is being played at Alanya Oba Stadium.
What competition is Alanyaspor vs Konyaspor part of?
Alanyaspor vs Konyaspor is a Regular Season - 13 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Alanyaspor vs Konyaspor?
Our statistical model gives Alanyaspor a 59% chance of winning, Konyaspor a 19% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Alanyaspor the favourite.
Will both teams score in Alanyaspor vs Konyaspor?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Alanyaspor and Konyaspor will score (BTTS).
Will Alanyaspor vs Konyaspor have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 54%.
What is the head-to-head record between Alanyaspor and Konyaspor?
Record (10 meetings): Alanyaspor 6W | Draws 3 | Konyaspor 1W.
What form are Alanyaspor and Konyaspor in?
Alanyaspor (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-L-D-W-L. Konyaspor (all comps): 3W-0D-7L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-L-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Alanyaspor's attack at 1.04x the league average against Konyaspor's defence at 1.24x — combine the two and it projects 1.87 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Konyaspor's attack versus Alanyaspor's defence, projects 0.96 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 37/38 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.0% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-0 (10.3%), 2-1 (9.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Alanyaspor Win
59%
1.70
22%
4.48
19%
5.27
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
11.1%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
10.6%
Draw
2 – 0
10.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.87
Alanyaspor xG
Total xG
2.83
0.96
Konyaspor xG
1.70
59%
Home win
4.48
22%
Draw
5.27
19%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
54%
Over 2.5
1.85
46%
Under 2.5
2.17
31%
Over 3.5
3.23
69%
Under 3.5
1.45
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.92
48%
BTTS No
2.09
Clean Sheet
38%
2.61
15%
6.47
Win to Nil
23%
4.44
3%
34.12
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.9 | 5.7 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 11.1 | 10.6 | 5.1 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.3 | 9.9 | 4.7 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.4 | 6.2 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 3.0 | 2.9 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.1 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Alanyaspor vs Konyaspor?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.0%.
How many goals are Alanyaspor and Konyaspor expected to score?
The model projects 1.87 expected goals for Alanyaspor and 0.96 for Konyaspor, a combined total of 2.83.
How confident is the prediction model for Alanyaspor vs Konyaspor?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 59%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 37 outings, Alanyaspor have picked up 1.11 PPG on a 8W 17D 12L record — W-L-D-W-L across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Alanyaspor, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Konyaspor's form line: 9W 10D 18L from 37 games, 1.00 PPG, last five L-L-L-L-L. It's still early in the season for Konyaspor, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: Alanyaspor on 1.11 PPG, Konyaspor on 1.00. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Alanyaspor have posted 1.44 PPG from 18 outings (7W 5D 6L).
On the road, Konyaspor have gone 3W 4D 11L from 18 away games — 0.72 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Alanyaspor come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Alanyaspor are averaging 1.19 goals scored and 1.19 conceded per game recently; Konyaspor are on 1.14 scored and 1.54 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Alanyaspor have seen both teams score in 62% of their recent games; Konyaspor in 62%.
Last 37 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Alanyaspor
Early Season
Konyaspor
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Alanyaspor and Konyaspor in coming into this match?
Alanyaspor have gone 8W 17D 12L in their last 37 games (1.11 PPG), while Konyaspor have gone 9W 10D 18L in their last 37 (1.00 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Alanyaspor at home or Konyaspor away?
Alanyaspor's home record (1.44 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Alanyaspor at home: 1.44 PPG; Konyaspor away: 0.72 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. They last met on 14 February 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Alanyaspor have won the last 5 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 27 Feb 2022, when Alanyaspor won 5-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Alanyaspor's record when hosting Konyaspor specifically: 3W 1D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
6
Alanyaspor
3
Draws
1
Konyaspor
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Alanyaspor and Konyaspor?
From 10 meetings on record, Alanyaspor have won 6, Konyaspor have won 1, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Alanyaspor and Konyaspor last play each other?
They last met on 14 February 2026, when Alanyaspor 2-1 Konyaspor.
Who has won more matches between Alanyaspor and Konyaspor?
Alanyaspor have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Alanyaspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 61% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 44% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Konyaspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Alanyaspor 44%, Konyaspor 72% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 44% (Alanyaspor) and 61% (Konyaspor).
On the defensive side: Alanyaspor keep a clean sheet in 50% of their matches; Alanyaspor have failed to score in 28% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Alanyaspor home games / Konyaspor away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Alanyaspor play Konyaspor?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 44% of Alanyaspor's games and 72% of Konyaspor's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Alanyaspor vs Konyaspor usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 44% of Alanyaspor's recent games and 61% of Konyaspor's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Alanyaspor and Konyaspor tend to score early?
Alanyaspor have had a goal before half-time in 61% of their recent matches, Konyaspor in 72% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.