Alanyaspor 3-3 Beşiktaş – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Alanyaspor at 41%, yet other data sources diverge — this Alanyaspor vs Beşiktaş fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Alanyaspor host Beşiktaş at Kırbıyık Holding Stadyumu in Süper Lig, Regular Season - 2. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 14 August 2022 at 19:45 UTC.
Form Guide
Alanyaspor — All Games: 7W 0D 3L from 10 Süper Lig outings this season, averaging 2.10 points per game. Last five: W W W W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 1.30 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Alanyaspor have played only a handful of Süper Lig games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Alanyaspor's home record at Kırbıyık Holding Stadyumu: 5W 2D 3L from 10 Süper Lig appearances (1.70 PPG). They are averaging 2.30 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Across all Süper Lig games this season, Beşiktaş have recorded 4W 5D 1L from 10 outings — 1.70 PPG. Last five: W D W D W. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Beşiktaş have played only a handful of Süper Lig games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
When travelling in Süper Lig this season, Beşiktaş have posted 4W 5D 1L from 10 away outings — 1.70 PPG. Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Alanyaspor at 2.10 PPG versus Beşiktaş's 1.70. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
Both teams score in over 70% of each side's relevant games (using home/away splits). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 2 previous meetings, Alanyaspor have won 1, Beşiktaş 1, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 2 meetings have averaged 3.5 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 9 Apr 2022, ended 1–4 with Beşiktaş winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.5 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Alanyaspor trading profile (39 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 70% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 63% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 63% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
Beşiktaş trading profile (39 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; BTTS occurs in 63% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Alanyaspor 59% versus Beşiktaş 59%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Alanyaspor 59% | Beşiktaş 51%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Alanyaspor 1.54 xG and Beşiktaş 1.40 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Alanyaspor attack 1.161 / defence 1.086 | Beşiktaş attack 1.029 / defence 0.926. League average goals — home 1.435 / away 1.255. Data: 39 Alanyaspor games / 39 Beşiktaş games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Alanyaspor 41% | Draw 24% | Beşiktaş 35%. Fair-value odds: Alanyaspor 2.44 | Draw 4.17 | Beşiktaş 2.86. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 24% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 56% | BTTS probability 59% | Total xG 2.94. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 56% — the 2.94 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 59% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Alanyaspor at 41% — marginal model lean. With a 24% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Alanyaspor offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.94 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 56% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.3 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 59% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Alanyaspor 70% | Beşiktaş 70% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects. The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (39 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Alanyaspor vs Beşiktaş | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 2 | Venue: Kırbıyık Holding Stadyumu • Kick-off: Sunday 14 Aug 2022, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Alanyaspor 41% | Draw 24% | Beşiktaş 35% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 56% | BTTS 59% | xG Alanyaspor 1.54 / Beşiktaş 1.40 • Poisson strength factors: Alanyaspor attack 1.161 / def 1.086 | Beşiktaş attack 1.029 / def 0.926 | league avg home 1.435 / away 1.255 • Poisson stance: Alanyaspor (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.54
Alanyaspor xG
Expected Goals
1.40
Beşiktaş xG
59%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
56%
Over 2.5
34%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Alanyaspor vs Beşiktaş kick off?
Alanyaspor vs Beşiktaş kicked off at 19:45 on Sunday 14 August 2022 at Kırbıyık Holding Stadyumu.
What was the final score in Alanyaspor vs Beşiktaş?
Alanyaspor 3 - 3 Beşiktaş.
Where is Alanyaspor vs Beşiktaş being played?
The match is being played at Kırbıyık Holding Stadyumu.
What competition is Alanyaspor vs Beşiktaş part of?
Alanyaspor vs Beşiktaş is a Regular Season - 2 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Alanyaspor vs Beşiktaş?
Our statistical model gives Alanyaspor a 41% chance of winning, Beşiktaş a 35% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Alanyaspor the favourite.
Will both teams score in Alanyaspor vs Beşiktaş?
Our model estimates a 59% probability that both Alanyaspor and Beşiktaş will score (BTTS).
Will Alanyaspor vs Beşiktaş have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 56%.
What is the head-to-head record between Alanyaspor and Beşiktaş?
Record (2 meetings): Alanyaspor 1W | Draws 0 | Beşiktaş 1W.
What form are Alanyaspor and Beşiktaş in?
Alanyaspor (all comps): 7W-0D-3L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-W-W-W-W. Beşiktaş (all comps): 4W-5D-1L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-D-W-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Alanyaspor's attack at 1.16x the league average against Beşiktaş's defence at 0.93x — combine the two and it projects 1.54 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Beşiktaş's attack versus Alanyaspor's defence, projects 1.40 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (39/39 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.9% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (8.8%), 1-2 (8.0%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Alanyaspor Win
41%
2.45
24%
4.08
35%
2.89
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.4%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.8%
Home win
1 – 0
8.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.54
Alanyaspor xG
Total xG
2.94
1.40
Beşiktaş xG
2.45
41%
Home win
4.08
24%
Draw
2.89
35%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
56%
Over 2.5
1.79
44%
Under 2.5
2.27
34%
Over 3.5
2.94
66%
Under 3.5
1.52
18%
Over 4.5
5.56
82%
Under 4.5
1.22
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
59%
BTTS Yes
1.69
41%
BTTS No
2.45
Clean Sheet
25%
4.06
21%
4.67
Win to Nil
10%
9.95
7%
13.49
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.3 | 7.4 | 5.2 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 8.1 | 11.4 | 8.0 | 3.7 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 6.3 | 8.8 | 6.2 | 2.9 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 3.2 | 4.5 | 3.2 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.7 | 1.2 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Alanyaspor vs Beşiktaş?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.9%.
How many goals are Alanyaspor and Beşiktaş expected to score?
The model projects 1.54 expected goals for Alanyaspor and 1.40 for Beşiktaş, a combined total of 2.94.
How confident is the prediction model for Alanyaspor vs Beşiktaş?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Alanyaspor come into this having played 39 games, going 20W 7D 12L for 1.72 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-W-W-W. It's still early in the season for Alanyaspor, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Beşiktaş sit at 1.59 PPG from 39 outings (16W 14D 9L), a run that reads W-D-W-D-W across their last five. It's still early in the season for Beşiktaş, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: Alanyaspor on 1.72 PPG, Beşiktaş on 1.59. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Alanyaspor's home form reads 9W 4D 6L across 19 games on their own ground, a 1.63 PPG return.
Away from home, Beşiktaş have taken 1.21 points per game from 19 outings (5W 8D 6L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Alanyaspor come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Alanyaspor are averaging 1.82 goals scored and 1.54 conceded per game recently; Beşiktaş are on 1.46 scored and 1.23 conceded.
Last 39 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Alanyaspor
Early Season
Beşiktaş
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Alanyaspor and Beşiktaş in coming into this match?
Alanyaspor have gone 20W 7D 12L in their last 39 games (1.72 PPG), while Beşiktaş have gone 16W 14D 9L in their last 39 (1.59 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Alanyaspor at home or Beşiktaş away?
Alanyaspor's home record (1.63 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Alanyaspor at home: 1.63 PPG; Beşiktaş away: 1.21 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Alanyaspor and Beşiktaş runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. They last met on 8 February 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 9 Apr 2022, when Beşiktaş won 4-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Alanyaspor's record when hosting Beşiktaş specifically: 2W 3D 0L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Alanyaspor
5
Draws
2
Beşiktaş
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Alanyaspor and Beşiktaş?
From 10 meetings on record, Alanyaspor have won 3, Beşiktaş have won 2, and 5 have been drawn.
When did Alanyaspor and Beşiktaş last play each other?
They last met on 8 February 2026, when Beşiktaş 2-2 Alanyaspor.
Who has won more matches between Alanyaspor and Beşiktaş?
Alanyaspor have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Alanyaspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 37% of the time.
Beşiktaş are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 16% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 16% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Alanyaspor 63%, Beşiktaş 63% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 63% (Alanyaspor) and 42% (Beşiktaş).
On the defensive side: Beşiktaş in 26%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Alanyaspor home games / Beşiktaş away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Alanyaspor play Beşiktaş?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 63% of Alanyaspor's games and 63% of Beşiktaş's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Alanyaspor vs Beşiktaş usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 63% of Alanyaspor's recent games and 42% of Beşiktaş's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Alanyaspor and Beşiktaş tend to score early?
Alanyaspor have had a goal before half-time in 79% of their recent matches, Beşiktaş in 68% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Alanyaspor and Beşiktaş share the spoils in a 3-3 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Kırbıyık Holding Stadyumu, Regular Season - 2, as Alanyaspor and Beşiktaş drew 3-3 in the Süper Lig. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Alanyaspor 1.54 xG and Beşiktaş 1.40 xG, a combined 2.94. The scoreboard read 3-3 for 6 actual goals. Alanyaspor beat their projection by 1.5 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Beşiktaş outscored their 1.40 projection by 1.6. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Alanyaspor attack 1.16 / defence 1.09 against Beşiktaş attack 1.03 / defence 0.93, drawn from 39/39 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Alanyaspor 41% | Draw 24% | Beşiktaş 35%, with Alanyaspor to win its most likely call at 41%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 56%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. Over 3.5 was 34% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Alanyaspor 59%, Beşiktaş 51%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Alanyaspor's trading profile (39 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did.
Beşiktaş's trading profile (39 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Alanyaspor 1.72 PPG, Beşiktaş 1.59 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Alanyaspor (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 2.05 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.63 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Beşiktaş (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.26 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.32 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.