Alanyaspor 0-0 Antalyaspor – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model projects a closely fought contest — draw probability sits at 41% as Alanyaspor take on Antalyaspor.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Süper Lig encounter, Regular Season - 15 sees Antalyaspor travel to GAİN Park Stadyumu to take on Alanyaspor. The game is scheduled for Monday 8 December 2025, 17:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Alanyaspor stand at 1W 6D 3L from 10 Süper Lig matches — 0.90 PPG. Last five: L D D L D. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Alanyaspor, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at GAİN Park Stadyumu, Alanyaspor have gone 4W 4D 2L this season (10 games, 1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 0.50 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at GAİN Park Stadyumu. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 1.60 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.90 — Alanyaspor are significantly better at GAİN Park Stadyumu than their overall form suggests.
Antalyaspor — All Games: 2W 2D 6L from 10 Süper Lig fixtures this season — 0.80 PPG. Last five: L W L D L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 2.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.10 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Antalyaspor, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Süper Lig this season, Antalyaspor have posted 3W 1D 6L from 10 away outings — 1.00 PPG. Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game.
The form comparison is too close to call — 0.90 PPG (Alanyaspor) versus 0.80 (Antalyaspor). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
H2H
Despite the anticipated home advantage, Antalyaspor have the better historical record — 5 wins from 8 previous contests against 1 for Alanyaspor.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 8 meetings have averaged 3.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 28 Mar 2025, ended 1–2 with Antalyaspor winning.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Antalyaspor have won 5 of 8 previous encounters, and at 3.0 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
In-Play Profile
Alanyaspor in-play tendencies (50 games, 24 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (home games).
Antalyaspor in-play tendencies (50 games, 24 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 65% of the time; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (away games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Alanyaspor 56% versus Antalyaspor 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Alanyaspor 42% | Antalyaspor 56%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Alanyaspor 0.97 xG and Antalyaspor 0.79 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Alanyaspor attack 0.841 / defence 0.757 | Antalyaspor attack 0.783 / defence 0.912. League average goals — home 1.267 / away 1.332. Alanyaspor's defence rating of 0.757 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 50 Alanyaspor games / 50 Antalyaspor games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Alanyaspor 35% | Draw 41% | Antalyaspor 25%. Fair-value odds: Alanyaspor 2.86 | Draw 2.44 | Antalyaspor 4.00. The draw (41%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 26% | BTTS probability 38% | Total xG 1.76. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 74% probability — total xG of 1.76 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 38% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 41% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 35% and away win at 25% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
The Poisson model projects 1.76 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 26% — marginal — conflicting signals confidence, supported by form averaging 1.8 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 3.0 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 38% on No. Form rates corroborate: Alanyaspor 30% | Antalyaspor 40% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Alanyaspor vs Antalyaspor | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 15 | Venue: GAİN Park Stadyumu • Kick-off: Monday 8 Dec 2025, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Alanyaspor 35% | Draw 41% | Antalyaspor 25% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 26% | BTTS 38% | xG Alanyaspor 0.97 / Antalyaspor 0.79 • Poisson strength factors: Alanyaspor attack 0.841 / def 0.757 | Antalyaspor attack 0.783 / def 0.912 | league avg home 1.267 / away 1.332 • Poisson stance: Draw (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.97
Alanyaspor xG
Expected Goals
0.79
Antalyaspor xG
38%
BTTS
56%
Over 1.5
26%
Over 2.5
10%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Alanyaspor vs Antalyaspor kick off?
Alanyaspor vs Antalyaspor kicked off at 17:00 on Monday 8 December 2025 at GAİN Park Stadyumu.
What was the final score in Alanyaspor vs Antalyaspor?
Alanyaspor 0 - 0 Antalyaspor.
Where is Alanyaspor vs Antalyaspor being played?
The match is being played at GAİN Park Stadyumu.
What competition is Alanyaspor vs Antalyaspor part of?
Alanyaspor vs Antalyaspor is a Regular Season - 15 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Alanyaspor vs Antalyaspor?
Our statistical model gives Alanyaspor a 35% chance of winning, Antalyaspor a 25% chance, and a 41% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Alanyaspor vs Antalyaspor?
Our model estimates a 38% probability that both Alanyaspor and Antalyaspor will score (BTTS).
Will Alanyaspor vs Antalyaspor have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 26%.
What is the head-to-head record between Alanyaspor and Antalyaspor?
Record (8 meetings): Alanyaspor 1W | Draws 2 | Antalyaspor 5W.
What form are Alanyaspor and Antalyaspor in?
Alanyaspor (all comps): 1W-6D-3L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-D-D-L-D. Antalyaspor (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 2.10 | L5 L-W-L-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Alanyaspor's attacking strength (0.84x league average) is weighed against Antalyaspor's defensive record (0.91x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.97. The same calculation in reverse, Antalyaspor's attack versus Alanyaspor's defence, projects 0.79 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 50/50 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 0-0, at 18.9%. Close behind: 1-0 (15.0%), 1-1 (14.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 49% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Draw
35%
2.88
41%
2.46
25%
4.05
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 0
17.2%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
16.7%
Home win
0 – 1
13.6%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.97
Alanyaspor xG
Total xG
1.76
0.79
Antalyaspor xG
2.88
35%
Home win
2.46
41%
Draw
4.05
25%
Away win
Goals Markets
53%
Over 1.5
1.89
47%
Under 1.5
2.13
26%
Over 2.5
3.85
74%
Under 2.5
1.35
10%
Over 3.5
10.00
90%
Under 3.5
1.11
3%
Over 4.5
33.33
97%
Under 4.5
1.03
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
38%
BTTS Yes
2.65
62%
BTTS No
1.60
Clean Sheet
45%
2.20
38%
2.64
Win to Nil
16%
6.35
9%
10.69
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 17.2 | 13.6 | 5.4 | 1.4 | 0.3 | – |
| 1 | 16.7 | 13.2 | 5.2 | 1.4 | 0.3 | – |
| 2 | 8.1 | 6.4 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 2.6 | 2.1 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Alanyaspor vs Antalyaspor?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 18.9%.
How many goals are Alanyaspor and Antalyaspor expected to score?
The model projects 0.97 expected goals for Alanyaspor and 0.79 for Antalyaspor, a combined total of 1.76.
How confident is the prediction model for Alanyaspor vs Antalyaspor?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Alanyaspor's recent record stands at 15W 16D 19L from 50 games, a 1.22 PPG return, with L-D-D-L-D in the last five. The sample for Alanyaspor is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Antalyaspor, meanwhile, have gone 16W 10D 24L across 50 games — 1.16 PPG, with L-W-L-D-L in their last five. The sample for Antalyaspor is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Alanyaspor on 1.22 PPG, Antalyaspor on 1.16. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Alanyaspor have managed 10W 7D 7L from 24 games — 1.54 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Antalyaspor's away record stands at 5W 5D 14L across 24 trips, a 0.83 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Alanyaspor come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Alanyaspor are averaging 1.14 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game recently; Antalyaspor are on 1.02 scored and 1.74 conceded.
Last 50 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Alanyaspor
Blended
Antalyaspor
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Alanyaspor and Antalyaspor in coming into this match?
Alanyaspor have gone 15W 16D 19L in their last 50 games (1.22 PPG), while Antalyaspor have gone 16W 10D 24L in their last 50 (1.16 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Alanyaspor at home or Antalyaspor away?
Alanyaspor's home record (1.54 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Alanyaspor at home: 1.54 PPG; Antalyaspor away: 0.83 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Alanyaspor and Antalyaspor runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. They last met on 3 May 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 27 Nov 2021, when Antalyaspor won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Alanyaspor's record when hosting Antalyaspor specifically: 1W 2D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
1
Alanyaspor
4
Draws
5
Antalyaspor
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Alanyaspor and Antalyaspor?
From 10 meetings on record, Alanyaspor have won 1, Antalyaspor have won 5, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Alanyaspor and Antalyaspor last play each other?
They last met on 3 May 2026, when Antalyaspor 0-0 Alanyaspor.
Who has won more matches between Alanyaspor and Antalyaspor?
Antalyaspor have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Alanyaspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 42% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 21% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Antalyaspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Alanyaspor 50%, Antalyaspor 42% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 38% (Alanyaspor) and 46% (Antalyaspor).
On the defensive side: Alanyaspor keep a clean sheet in 38% of their matches; Antalyaspor in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Alanyaspor home games / Antalyaspor away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Alanyaspor play Antalyaspor?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Alanyaspor's recent matches and 42% of Antalyaspor's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Alanyaspor vs Antalyaspor usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 38% of Alanyaspor's recent games and 46% of Antalyaspor's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Alanyaspor and Antalyaspor tend to score early?
Alanyaspor have had a goal before half-time in 71% of their recent matches, Antalyaspor in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Alanyaspor's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at GAİN Park Stadyumu, Regular Season - 15, as Alanyaspor and Antalyaspor drew 0-0 in the Süper Lig. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Alanyaspor 0.97 xG and Antalyaspor 0.79 xG, a combined 1.76. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Alanyaspor fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Alanyaspor attack 0.84 / defence 0.76 against Antalyaspor attack 0.78 / defence 0.91, drawn from 50/50 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Alanyaspor 35% | Draw 41% | Antalyaspor 25%, with the draw its most likely call at 41%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 26%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 56% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 38% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Alanyaspor 42%, Antalyaspor 56%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Alanyaspor's trading profile (50 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 26% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Antalyaspor's trading profile (50 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 38% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Alanyaspor 1.22 PPG, Antalyaspor 1.16 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Alanyaspor (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.25 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line. Antalyaspor (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.79 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.