Alanyaspor 1-3 Adana Demirspor – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Alanyaspor at 47%, yet other data sources diverge — this Alanyaspor vs Adana Demirspor fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Süper Lig encounter, Regular Season - 17 sees Adana Demirspor travel to Bahçeşehir Okulları Stadyumu to take on Alanyaspor. The game is scheduled for Saturday 18 December 2021, 16:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Süper Lig games this season, Alanyaspor have gone 4W 3D 3L from 10 outings — a 1.50 PPG return. Last five: L W L L W. They are averaging 2.00 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Alanyaspor, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Alanyaspor's form when playing at home: 4W 1D 2L across 7 games at Bahçeşehir Okulları Stadyumu this term (1.86 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 3 home clean sheets from 7 games (43%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Adana Demirspor — All Games: 5W 2D 3L from 10 Süper Lig fixtures this season — 1.70 PPG. Last five: W W D L W. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 0.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Adana Demirspor, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Süper Lig this season, Adana Demirspor have posted 2W 3D 3L from 8 away outings — 1.12 PPG. Away from home they average 1.38 goals scored and 1.88 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 75% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.12 is notably below their overall 1.70 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.50 PPG (Alanyaspor) versus 1.70 (Adana Demirspor). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
In-Play Data
Alanyaspor trading profile (16 games, 7 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (home games).
Adana Demirspor trading profile (16 games, 7 at away): they score before half-time in 86% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 71% of games (away games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Alanyaspor 44% versus Adana Demirspor 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Alanyaspor 44% | Adana Demirspor 44%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Alanyaspor 1.77 xG and Adana Demirspor 1.37 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Alanyaspor attack 1.130 / defence 1.224 | Adana Demirspor attack 0.966 / defence 1.293. League average goals — home 1.215 / away 1.155. Adana Demirspor bring a strong defensive rating of 1.293 — this is suppressing Alanyaspor's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 16 Alanyaspor games / 16 Adana Demirspor games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Alanyaspor 47% | Draw 24% | Adana Demirspor 29%. Fair-value odds: Alanyaspor 2.13 | Draw 4.17 | Adana Demirspor 3.45. Alanyaspor hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 61% | BTTS probability 62% | Total xG 3.14. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 61% — the 3.14 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 62% reflects that both xG figures (1.77 / 1.37) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Alanyaspor as the most likely outcome at 47% — moderate model lean. With a 24% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Alanyaspor offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.14 combined xG gives a 61% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.3 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 62% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Alanyaspor 43% | Adana Demirspor 75% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Alanyaspor vs Adana Demirspor | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 17 | Venue: Bahçeşehir Okulları Stadyumu • Kick-off: Saturday 18 Dec 2021, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Alanyaspor 47% | Draw 24% | Adana Demirspor 29% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 61% | BTTS 62% | xG Alanyaspor 1.77 / Adana Demirspor 1.37 • Poisson strength factors: Alanyaspor attack 1.130 / def 1.224 | Adana Demirspor attack 0.966 / def 1.293 | league avg home 1.215 / away 1.155 • Poisson stance: Alanyaspor (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.77
Alanyaspor xG
Expected Goals
1.37
Adana Demirspor xG
62%
BTTS
82%
Over 1.5
61%
Over 2.5
38%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Alanyaspor vs Adana Demirspor kick off?
Alanyaspor vs Adana Demirspor kicked off at 16:00 on Saturday 18 December 2021 at Bahçeşehir Okulları Stadyumu.
What was the final score in Alanyaspor vs Adana Demirspor?
Alanyaspor 1 - 3 Adana Demirspor.
Where is Alanyaspor vs Adana Demirspor being played?
The match is being played at Bahçeşehir Okulları Stadyumu.
What competition is Alanyaspor vs Adana Demirspor part of?
Alanyaspor vs Adana Demirspor is a Regular Season - 17 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Alanyaspor vs Adana Demirspor?
Our statistical model gives Alanyaspor a 47% chance of winning, Adana Demirspor a 29% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Alanyaspor the favourite.
Will both teams score in Alanyaspor vs Adana Demirspor?
Our model estimates a 62% probability that both Alanyaspor and Adana Demirspor will score (BTTS).
Will Alanyaspor vs Adana Demirspor have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 61%.
What is the head-to-head record between Alanyaspor and Adana Demirspor?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Alanyaspor and Adana Demirspor in?
Alanyaspor (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-W-L-L-W. Adana Demirspor (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-W-D-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Alanyaspor's attacking strength (1.13x league average) is weighed against Adana Demirspor's defensive record (1.29x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.77. The same calculation in reverse, Adana Demirspor's attack versus Alanyaspor's defence, projects 1.37 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 16/16 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 11.8%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.3%), 1-2 (7.2%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Alanyaspor Win
47%
2.14
24%
4.18
29%
3.41
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.5%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.3%
Home win
1 – 0
7.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.77
Alanyaspor xG
Total xG
3.14
1.37
Adana Demirspor xG
2.14
47%
Home win
4.18
24%
Draw
3.41
29%
Away win
Goals Markets
82%
Over 1.5
1.22
18%
Under 1.5
5.56
61%
Over 2.5
1.64
39%
Under 2.5
2.56
38%
Over 3.5
2.63
62%
Under 3.5
1.61
21%
Over 4.5
4.76
79%
Under 4.5
1.27
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
62%
BTTS Yes
1.61
38%
BTTS No
2.65
Clean Sheet
25%
3.92
17%
5.90
Win to Nil
12%
8.39
5%
20.12
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.3 | 5.9 | 4.0 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 7.7 | 10.5 | 7.2 | 3.3 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.8 | 9.3 | 6.4 | 2.9 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 4.0 | 5.5 | 3.8 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.8 | 2.4 | 1.7 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Alanyaspor vs Adana Demirspor?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.8%.
How many goals are Alanyaspor and Adana Demirspor expected to score?
The model projects 1.77 expected goals for Alanyaspor and 1.37 for Adana Demirspor, a combined total of 3.14.
How confident is the prediction model for Alanyaspor vs Adana Demirspor?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Alanyaspor come into this having played 16 games, going 8W 3D 5L for 1.69 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-L-L-W. The sample for Alanyaspor is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Adana Demirspor sit at 1.44 PPG from 16 outings (6W 5D 5L), a run that reads W-W-D-L-W across their last five. The sample for Adana Demirspor is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Alanyaspor on 1.69 PPG, Adana Demirspor on 1.44. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Alanyaspor's home form reads 4W 1D 2L across 7 games on their own ground, a 1.86 PPG return.
Away from home, Adana Demirspor have taken 1.14 points per game from 7 outings (2W 2D 3L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Alanyaspor come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Alanyaspor are averaging 1.62 goals scored and 1.56 conceded per game recently; Adana Demirspor are on 1.31 scored and 1.25 conceded.
Last 16 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Alanyaspor
Blended
Adana Demirspor
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Alanyaspor and Adana Demirspor in coming into this match?
Alanyaspor have gone 8W 3D 5L in their last 16 games (1.69 PPG), while Adana Demirspor have gone 6W 5D 5L in their last 16 (1.44 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Alanyaspor at home or Adana Demirspor away?
Alanyaspor's home record (1.86 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Alanyaspor at home: 1.86 PPG; Adana Demirspor away: 1.14 PPG.
Have Alanyaspor or Adana Demirspor been keeping clean sheets recently?
Alanyaspor have kept a clean sheet in 31% of their recent games, Adana Demirspor in 25%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
8 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to December 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. It has been a while since the last meeting — 23 February 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
Alanyaspor have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 1 Oct 2023, when Adana Demirspor won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Alanyaspor's record when hosting Adana Demirspor specifically: 1W 2D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
3
Alanyaspor
2
Draws
3
Adana Demirspor
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Alanyaspor and Adana Demirspor?
From 8 meetings on record, Alanyaspor have won 3, Adana Demirspor have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Alanyaspor and Adana Demirspor last play each other?
They last met on 23 February 2025, when Alanyaspor 3-2 Adana Demirspor.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Alanyaspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 57% of the time.
Adana Demirspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 86% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 29% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Alanyaspor 43%, Adana Demirspor 71% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 43% (Alanyaspor) and 71% (Adana Demirspor). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 43% and 43% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Alanyaspor keep a clean sheet in 43% of their matches; Adana Demirspor in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Alanyaspor home games / Adana Demirspor away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Alanyaspor play Adana Demirspor?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 43% of Alanyaspor's games and 71% of Adana Demirspor's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Alanyaspor vs Adana Demirspor usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 43% of Alanyaspor's matches and 71% of Adana Demirspor's.
Do Alanyaspor and Adana Demirspor tend to score early?
Alanyaspor have had a goal before half-time in 71% of their recent matches, Adana Demirspor in 86% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Adana Demirspor cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over Alanyaspor.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Adana Demirspor beat Alanyaspor 1-3 at Bahçeşehir Okulları Stadyumu, Regular Season - 17, in the Süper Lig. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Alanyaspor 1.77 xG and Adana Demirspor 1.37 xG, a combined 3.14. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Adana Demirspor outscored their 1.37 projection by 1.6. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Alanyaspor attack 1.13 / defence 1.22 against Adana Demirspor attack 0.97 / defence 1.29, drawn from 16/16 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Alanyaspor 47% | Draw 24% | Adana Demirspor 29%, with Alanyaspor to win its most likely call at 47%. The actual Adana Demirspor win had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 61%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 82% and landed. Over 3.5 was 38% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 62% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Alanyaspor 44%, Adana Demirspor 44%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Alanyaspor's trading profile (16 games, 7 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.
Adana Demirspor's trading profile (16 games, 7 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Alanyaspor 1.69 PPG, Adana Demirspor 1.44 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Adana Demirspor win broke the near-deadlock. Alanyaspor (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.00 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.43 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Adana Demirspor (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.43 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 1 against a 2.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.