Adana Demirspor 3-0 Gaziantep FK – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model favours Adana Demirspor (67%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Adana Demirspor face Gaziantep FK.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Gaziantep FK make the trip to Yeni Adana Stadyumu to face Adana Demirspor in Süper Lig, Regular Season - 28. The match kicks off on Sunday 9 April 2023 at 01:00 UTC.
Current Form
Adana Demirspor's overall Süper Lig record this term: 4W 3D 3L from 10 games (1.50 PPG). Last five: D W L W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.30 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Adana Demirspor, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Adana Demirspor have posted 6W 4D 0L at Yeni Adana Stadyumu — 2.20 PPG. They are averaging 2.20 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.20 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.50 — Adana Demirspor are significantly better at Yeni Adana Stadyumu than their overall form suggests.
Gaziantep FK have collected 0.80 PPG across 10 Süper Lig outings this season: 2W 2D 6L. Last five: W L L L L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Gaziantep FK, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Gaziantep FK away from home this season: 2W 2D 6L from 10 away games — 0.80 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game.
The form ledger tips toward Adana Demirspor. A 0.70 PPG lead over Gaziantep FK (1.50 vs 0.80) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 3 meetings: Adana Demirspor 2W, Gaziantep FK 0W, 1D.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.0 per game across 3 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 7 Oct 2022, ended 1–1 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
Adana Demirspor — key trading statistics (63 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 72% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games).
Gaziantep FK — key trading statistics (63 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 72% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 55% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (away games); they fail to score in 30% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Adana Demirspor 57% versus Gaziantep FK 57%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Adana Demirspor 54% | Gaziantep FK 52%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Adana Demirspor 2.02 xG and Gaziantep FK 0.74 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Adana Demirspor attack 1.201 / defence 0.711 | Gaziantep FK attack 0.792 / defence 1.021. League average goals — home 1.647 / away 1.321. Adana Demirspor's defence rating of 0.711 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 64 Adana Demirspor games / 63 Gaziantep FK games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Adana Demirspor 67% | Draw 20% | Gaziantep FK 13%. Fair-value odds: Adana Demirspor 1.49 | Draw 5.00 | Gaziantep FK 7.69. The model has a clear lean to Adana Demirspor (67%) — a 54pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS probability 46% | Total xG 2.76. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.76 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 46% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Adana Demirspor are the pick at 67% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 20% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.76 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 52% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.0 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 46% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Adana Demirspor 60% | Gaziantep FK 40%.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Adana Demirspor vs Gaziantep FK | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 28 | Venue: Yeni Adana Stadyumu • Kick-off: Sunday 9 Apr 2023, 01:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Adana Demirspor 67% | Draw 20% | Gaziantep FK 13% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 52% | BTTS 46% | xG Adana Demirspor 2.02 / Gaziantep FK 0.74 • Poisson strength factors: Adana Demirspor attack 1.201 / def 0.711 | Gaziantep FK attack 0.792 / def 1.021 | league avg home 1.647 / away 1.321 • Poisson stance: Adana Demirspor (67%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.02
Adana Demirspor xG
Expected Goals
0.74
Gaziantep FK xG
46%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
52%
Over 2.5
30%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Adana Demirspor vs Gaziantep FK kick off?
Adana Demirspor vs Gaziantep FK kicked off at 01:00 on Sunday 9 April 2023 at Yeni Adana Stadyumu.
What was the final score in Adana Demirspor vs Gaziantep FK?
Adana Demirspor 3 - 0 Gaziantep FK.
Where is Adana Demirspor vs Gaziantep FK being played?
The match is being played at Yeni Adana Stadyumu.
What competition is Adana Demirspor vs Gaziantep FK part of?
Adana Demirspor vs Gaziantep FK is a Regular Season - 28 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Adana Demirspor vs Gaziantep FK?
Our statistical model gives Adana Demirspor a 67% chance of winning, Gaziantep FK a 13% chance, and a 20% chance of a draw — making Adana Demirspor the favourite.
Will both teams score in Adana Demirspor vs Gaziantep FK?
Our model estimates a 46% probability that both Adana Demirspor and Gaziantep FK will score (BTTS).
Will Adana Demirspor vs Gaziantep FK have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 52%.
What is the head-to-head record between Adana Demirspor and Gaziantep FK?
Record (3 meetings): Adana Demirspor 2W | Draws 1 | Gaziantep FK 0W.
What form are Adana Demirspor and Gaziantep FK in?
Adana Demirspor (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-W-L-W-L. Gaziantep FK (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.70 | L5 W-L-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Adana Demirspor's attacking strength (1.20x league average) is weighed against Gaziantep FK's defensive record (1.02x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 2.02. Flip it around — Gaziantep FK's attack (0.79x) against Adana Demirspor's defence (0.71x) — and the away total comes out at 0.74.
These ratings are built from 64/63 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 2-0, at 12.9%. Close behind: 1-0 (11.5%), 1-1 (10.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Adana Demirspor Win
67%
1.49
20%
5.00
13%
7.83
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
12.9%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 0
12.7%
Home win
2 – 1
9.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.02
Adana Demirspor xG
Total xG
2.76
0.74
Gaziantep FK xG
1.49
67%
Home win
5.00
20%
Draw
7.83
13%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
52%
Over 2.5
1.92
48%
Under 2.5
2.08
30%
Over 3.5
3.33
70%
Under 3.5
1.43
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
46%
BTTS Yes
2.20
54%
BTTS No
1.84
Clean Sheet
48%
2.10
13%
7.53
Win to Nil
32%
3.13
2%
58.97
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.3 | 4.7 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 12.7 | 9.5 | 3.5 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 12.9 | 9.6 | 3.6 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 8.7 | 6.4 | 2.4 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 4.4 | 3.3 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.8 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Adana Demirspor vs Gaziantep FK?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.9%.
How many goals are Adana Demirspor and Gaziantep FK expected to score?
The model projects 2.02 expected goals for Adana Demirspor and 0.74 for Gaziantep FK, a combined total of 2.76.
How confident is the prediction model for Adana Demirspor vs Gaziantep FK?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 67%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Adana Demirspor's recent record stands at 27W 19D 17L from 63 games, a 1.59 PPG return, with D-W-L-W-L in the last five. The sample for Adana Demirspor is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Gaziantep FK, meanwhile, have gone 18W 17D 28L across 63 games — 1.13 PPG, with W-L-L-L-L in their last five. The sample for Gaziantep FK is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Adana Demirspor by 0.46 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Gaziantep FK heading into this one.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Adana Demirspor have managed 17W 9D 4L from 30 games — 2.00 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.59 PPG overall — Adana Demirspor are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Gaziantep FK's away record stands at 4W 6D 20L across 30 trips, a 0.60 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.13 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Gaziantep FK's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Adana Demirspor come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Adana Demirspor are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.19 conceded per game recently; Gaziantep FK are on 1.25 scored and 1.51 conceded.
Last 63 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Adana Demirspor
Blended
Gaziantep FK
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Adana Demirspor and Gaziantep FK in coming into this match?
Adana Demirspor have gone 27W 19D 17L in their last 63 games (1.59 PPG), while Gaziantep FK have gone 18W 17D 28L in their last 63 (1.13 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Adana Demirspor at home or Gaziantep FK away?
Adana Demirspor's home record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Adana Demirspor at home: 2.00 PPG; Gaziantep FK away: 0.60 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 8 times that we have on record, stretching back to September 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. It has been a while since the last meeting — 31 May 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Gaziantep FK won 1-6 on 12 May 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Adana Demirspor have gone 2W 1D 1L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Gaziantep FK — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
3
Adana Demirspor
3
Draws
2
Gaziantep FK
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Adana Demirspor and Gaziantep FK?
From 8 meetings on record, Adana Demirspor have won 3, Gaziantep FK have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Adana Demirspor and Gaziantep FK last play each other?
They last met on 31 May 2025, when Adana Demirspor 2-2 Gaziantep FK.
Who has won more matches between Adana Demirspor and Gaziantep FK?
Adana Demirspor have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Adana Demirspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 41% of the time.
Gaziantep FK are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Adana Demirspor 50%, Gaziantep FK 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Adana Demirspor) and 53% (Gaziantep FK).
On the defensive side: Adana Demirspor keep a clean sheet in 47% of their matches; Gaziantep FK in 40%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Adana Demirspor home games / Gaziantep FK away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Adana Demirspor play Gaziantep FK?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Adana Demirspor's recent matches and 50% of Gaziantep FK's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Adana Demirspor vs Gaziantep FK usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Adana Demirspor's recent games and 53% of Gaziantep FK's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Adana Demirspor and Gaziantep FK tend to score early?
Adana Demirspor have had a goal before half-time in 69% of their recent matches, Gaziantep FK in 72% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Adana Demirspor run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Gaziantep FK.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Adana Demirspor beat Gaziantep FK 3-0 at Yeni Adana Stadyumu, Regular Season - 28, in the Süper Lig. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Adana Demirspor 2.02 xG and Gaziantep FK 0.74 xG, a combined 2.76. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Adana Demirspor beat their projection by 1.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Adana Demirspor attack 1.20 / defence 0.71 against Gaziantep FK attack 0.79 / defence 1.02, drawn from 64/63 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Adana Demirspor 67% | Draw 20% | Gaziantep FK 13%, with Adana Demirspor to win its most likely call at 67%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Adana Demirspor 54%, Gaziantep FK 52%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Adana Demirspor's trading profile (63 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not.
Gaziantep FK's trading profile (63 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 30% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Adana Demirspor arrived the stronger side — 1.59 PPG against 1.13. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Adana Demirspor (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 2.03 average — above their attacking norm. Gaziantep FK (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.83 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.80 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.