Adana Demirspor 3-1 Ankaragücü – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Adana Demirspor at 65%, yet other data sources diverge — this Adana Demirspor vs Ankaragücü fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Süper Lig encounter, Regular Season - 19 sees Ankaragücü travel to Yeni Adana Stadyumu to take on Adana Demirspor. The game is scheduled for Saturday 14 January 2023, 13:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Adana Demirspor stand at 3W 5D 2L from 10 Süper Lig matches — 1.40 PPG. Last five: D W L W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 0.90 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Adana Demirspor, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Adana Demirspor have posted 6W 2D 2L at Yeni Adana Stadyumu — 2.00 PPG. They are averaging 2.50 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Yeni Adana Stadyumu. Their home PPG of 2.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.40 — Adana Demirspor are significantly better at Yeni Adana Stadyumu than their overall form suggests.
Across all Süper Lig games this season, Ankaragücü have recorded 4W 3D 3L from 10 outings — 1.50 PPG. Last five: D W L L W. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.30. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Ankaragücü, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Ankaragücü's away record: 2W 2D 4L from 8 road trips in Süper Lig this season (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.12 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 75% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.00 is notably below their overall 1.50 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Adana Demirspor 1.40 PPG, Ankaragücü 1.50 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
In-Play Data
Adana Demirspor trading profile (17 games, 7 at home): they score before half-time in 86% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; they lead at the break 47% of the time; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 35%.
Ankaragücü trading profile (17 games, 7 at away): they score before half-time in 43% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 71% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 86% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Adana Demirspor 59% and Ankaragücü 76% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Adana Demirspor 59% | Ankaragücü 65%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Adana Demirspor 2.04 xG and Ankaragücü 0.83 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Adana Demirspor attack 1.310 / defence 0.715 | Ankaragücü attack 0.864 / defence 0.949. League average goals — home 1.646 / away 1.349. Adana Demirspor carry an above-average attack strength of 1.310 — their λ of 2.04 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Adana Demirspor's defence rating of 0.715 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 55 Adana Demirspor games / 17 Ankaragücü games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Adana Demirspor 65% | Draw 21% | Ankaragücü 14%. Fair-value odds: Adana Demirspor 1.54 | Draw 4.76 | Ankaragücü 7.14. The model has a clear lean to Adana Demirspor (65%) — a 51pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 55% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.88. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 55% — the 2.88 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Adana Demirspor are the pick at 65% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 21% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.88 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 55% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 50%. This conflicts with form data: Adana Demirspor 50% | Ankaragücü 75% from recent games — a notable divergence.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Adana Demirspor vs Ankaragücü | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 19 | Venue: Yeni Adana Stadyumu • Kick-off: Saturday 14 Jan 2023, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Adana Demirspor 65% | Draw 21% | Ankaragücü 14% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 55% | BTTS 50% | xG Adana Demirspor 2.04 / Ankaragücü 0.83 • Poisson strength factors: Adana Demirspor attack 1.310 / def 0.715 | Ankaragücü attack 0.864 / def 0.949 | league avg home 1.646 / away 1.349 • Poisson stance: Adana Demirspor (65%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.04
Adana Demirspor xG
Expected Goals
0.83
Ankaragücü xG
50%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
55%
Over 2.5
33%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Adana Demirspor vs Ankaragücü kick off?
Adana Demirspor vs Ankaragücü kicked off at 13:00 on Saturday 14 January 2023 at Yeni Adana Stadyumu.
What was the final score in Adana Demirspor vs Ankaragücü?
Adana Demirspor 3 - 1 Ankaragücü.
Where is Adana Demirspor vs Ankaragücü being played?
The match is being played at Yeni Adana Stadyumu.
What competition is Adana Demirspor vs Ankaragücü part of?
Adana Demirspor vs Ankaragücü is a Regular Season - 19 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Adana Demirspor vs Ankaragücü?
Our statistical model gives Adana Demirspor a 65% chance of winning, Ankaragücü a 14% chance, and a 21% chance of a draw — making Adana Demirspor the favourite.
Will both teams score in Adana Demirspor vs Ankaragücü?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Adana Demirspor and Ankaragücü will score (BTTS).
Will Adana Demirspor vs Ankaragücü have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 55%.
What is the head-to-head record between Adana Demirspor and Ankaragücü?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Adana Demirspor and Ankaragücü in?
Adana Demirspor (all comps): 3W-5D-2L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 0.90 | L5 D-W-L-W-L. Ankaragücü (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-W-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Adana Demirspor's attack rating (1.31) and Ankaragücü's defence rating (0.95), the model arrives at 2.04 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Ankaragücü's attack versus Adana Demirspor's defence, projects 0.83 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 55/17 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 2-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 11.8%. Close behind: 1-1 (10.8%), 1-0 (10.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Adana Demirspor Win
65%
1.54
21%
4.72
14%
7.26
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
11.8%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 0
11.5%
Home win
2 – 1
9.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.04
Adana Demirspor xG
Total xG
2.88
0.83
Ankaragücü xG
1.54
65%
Home win
4.72
21%
Draw
7.26
14%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
55%
Over 2.5
1.82
45%
Under 2.5
2.22
33%
Over 3.5
3.03
67%
Under 3.5
1.49
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
2.01
50%
BTTS No
1.99
Clean Sheet
43%
2.30
13%
7.73
Win to Nil
28%
3.54
2%
56.13
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.6 | 4.7 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 11.5 | 9.6 | 4.0 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 11.8 | 9.8 | 4.1 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 8.0 | 6.7 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 4.1 | 3.4 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.7 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Adana Demirspor vs Ankaragücü?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.8%.
How many goals are Adana Demirspor and Ankaragücü expected to score?
The model projects 2.04 expected goals for Adana Demirspor and 0.83 for Ankaragücü, a combined total of 2.88.
How confident is the prediction model for Adana Demirspor vs Ankaragücü?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 65%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Adana Demirspor come into this having played 17 games, going 8W 6D 3L for 1.76 points per game. Their last five reads D-W-L-W-L. The sample for Adana Demirspor is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Ankaragücü sit at 1.12 PPG from 17 outings (5W 4D 8L), a run that reads D-W-L-L-W across their last five. The sample for Ankaragücü is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Adana Demirspor carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.64 PPG clear of Ankaragücü — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
Adana Demirspor's home form reads 5W 2D 0L across 7 games on their own ground, a 2.43 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.76 PPG overall — Adana Demirspor are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Ankaragücü have taken 1.14 points per game from 7 outings (2W 2D 3L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Adana Demirspor come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Adana Demirspor are averaging 1.94 goals scored and 1.06 conceded per game recently; Ankaragücü are on 1.29 scored and 1.53 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Ankaragücü in 76%.
Defensively: Adana Demirspor have kept a clean sheet in 35% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 17 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Adana Demirspor
Blended
Ankaragücü
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Adana Demirspor and Ankaragücü in coming into this match?
Adana Demirspor have gone 8W 6D 3L in their last 17 games (1.76 PPG), while Ankaragücü have gone 5W 4D 8L in their last 17 (1.12 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Adana Demirspor at home or Ankaragücü away?
Adana Demirspor's home record (2.43 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Adana Demirspor at home: 2.43 PPG; Ankaragücü away: 1.14 PPG.
Have Adana Demirspor or Ankaragücü been keeping clean sheets recently?
Adana Demirspor have kept a clean sheet in 35% of their recent games, Ankaragücü in 12%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to January 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. It has been a while since the last meeting — 20 January 2024, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
Adana Demirspor's record when hosting Ankaragücü specifically: 1W 1D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
2
Adana Demirspor
2
Draws
0
Ankaragücü
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Adana Demirspor and Ankaragücü?
From 4 meetings on record, Adana Demirspor have won 2, Ankaragücü have won 0, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Adana Demirspor and Ankaragücü last play each other?
They last met on 20 January 2024, when Adana Demirspor 1-1 Ankaragücü.
Who has won more matches between Adana Demirspor and Ankaragücü?
Adana Demirspor have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Adana Demirspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 86% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 57% of the time.
Ankaragücü see a goal before the break in 43% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Adana Demirspor 43%, Ankaragücü 86% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 57% (Adana Demirspor) and 57% (Ankaragücü). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 29% and 14% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Adana Demirspor keep a clean sheet in 57% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Adana Demirspor home games / Ankaragücü away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Adana Demirspor play Ankaragücü?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 43% of Adana Demirspor's games and 86% of Ankaragücü's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Adana Demirspor vs Ankaragücü usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 57% of Adana Demirspor's matches and 57% of Ankaragücü's.
Do Adana Demirspor and Ankaragücü tend to score early?
Adana Demirspor have had a goal before half-time in 86% of their recent matches, Ankaragücü in 43% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Adana Demirspor cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Ankaragücü.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Adana Demirspor beat Ankaragücü 3-1 at Yeni Adana Stadyumu, Regular Season - 19, in the Süper Lig. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Adana Demirspor 2.04 xG and Ankaragücü 0.83 xG, a combined 2.88. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Adana Demirspor beat their projection by 1.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Adana Demirspor attack 1.31 / defence 0.71 against Ankaragücü attack 0.86 / defence 0.95, drawn from 55/17 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Adana Demirspor 65% | Draw 21% | Ankaragücü 14%, with Adana Demirspor to win its most likely call at 65%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. Over 3.5 was 33% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 62% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Adana Demirspor 59%, Ankaragücü 65%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 68%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Adana Demirspor's trading profile (17 games, 7 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and conceded here.
Ankaragücü's trading profile (17 games, 7 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 76% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Adana Demirspor arrived the stronger side — 1.76 PPG against 1.12. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Ankaragücü (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.57 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.