Uthai Thani 1-2 Ratchaburi – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Uthai Thani at 67%, yet other data sources diverge — this Uthai Thani vs Ratchaburi fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Uthai Thani and Ratchaburi meet at Uthai Thani Province Stadium in Thai League 1, Regular Season - 16. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 11 January 2025 at 12:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Uthai Thani have collected 1.60 PPG across 10 Thai League 1 outings this season: 5W 1D 4L. Last five: L L W L D. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.40 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Uthai Thani, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Uthai Thani's home record at Uthai Thani Province Stadium: 5W 4D 1L from 10 Thai League 1 appearances (1.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Ratchaburi (all games): 4W 2D 4L across 10 Thai League 1 outings this term — 1.40 points per game. Last five: L D L W L. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.70. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Ratchaburi, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Ratchaburi's form when playing away from home: 1W 2D 7L across 10 road games this term (0.50 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 0.50 is notably below their overall 1.40 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.60 vs 1.40 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Uthai Thani lead 1W to 1W over the last 3 encounters, with 1 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
Historically, goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 1.3 per game from 3 meetings. The Under 2.5 has a clear base rate from the H2H record alone. The most recent clash, on 17 Aug 2024, ended 1–1 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 1.3 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading & In-Play
Uthai Thani — key trading statistics (44 games, 20 at home): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 87% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 65% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 45% of games (home games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
Ratchaburi — key trading statistics (44 games, 20 at away): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Uthai Thani 57% versus Ratchaburi 48%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Uthai Thani 54% | Ratchaburi 52%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Uthai Thani 2.38 xG and Ratchaburi 1.02 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Uthai Thani attack 1.050 / defence 0.920 | Ratchaburi attack 0.919 / defence 1.368. League average goals — home 1.655 / away 1.208. Ratchaburi bring a strong defensive rating of 1.368 — this is suppressing Uthai Thani's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 44 Uthai Thani games / 45 Ratchaburi games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Uthai Thani 67% | Draw 20% | Ratchaburi 14%. Fair-value odds: Uthai Thani 1.49 | Draw 5.00 | Ratchaburi 7.14. The model has a clear lean to Uthai Thani (67%) — a 53pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 66% | BTTS probability 59% | Total xG 3.40. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 66% — a total xG of 3.40 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS probability of 59% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Uthai Thani are the pick at 67% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 20% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 3.40 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 66% — marginal — conflicting signals confidence, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 1.3 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 59% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Uthai Thani 70% | Ratchaburi 30%.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Uthai Thani vs Ratchaburi | Competition: Thai League 1, Regular Season - 16 | Venue: Uthai Thani Province Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 11 Jan 2025, 12:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Uthai Thani 67% | Draw 20% | Ratchaburi 14% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 66% | BTTS 59% | xG Uthai Thani 2.38 / Ratchaburi 1.02 • Poisson strength factors: Uthai Thani attack 1.050 / def 0.920 | Ratchaburi attack 0.919 / def 1.368 | league avg home 1.655 / away 1.208 • Poisson stance: Uthai Thani (67%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.38
Uthai Thani xG
Expected Goals
1.02
Ratchaburi xG
59%
BTTS
86%
Over 1.5
66%
Over 2.5
44%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Uthai Thani vs Ratchaburi kick off?
Uthai Thani vs Ratchaburi kicked off at 12:00 on Saturday 11 January 2025 at Uthai Thani Province Stadium.
What was the final score in Uthai Thani vs Ratchaburi?
Uthai Thani 1 - 2 Ratchaburi.
Where is Uthai Thani vs Ratchaburi being played?
The match is being played at Uthai Thani Province Stadium.
What competition is Uthai Thani vs Ratchaburi part of?
Uthai Thani vs Ratchaburi is a Regular Season - 16 fixture in the Thai League 1 (Thailand).
Who is favourite to win Uthai Thani vs Ratchaburi?
Our statistical model gives Uthai Thani a 67% chance of winning, Ratchaburi a 14% chance, and a 20% chance of a draw — making Uthai Thani the favourite.
Will both teams score in Uthai Thani vs Ratchaburi?
Our model estimates a 59% probability that both Uthai Thani and Ratchaburi will score (BTTS).
Will Uthai Thani vs Ratchaburi have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 66%.
What is the head-to-head record between Uthai Thani and Ratchaburi?
Record (3 meetings): Uthai Thani 1W | Draws 1 | Ratchaburi 1W.
What form are Uthai Thani and Ratchaburi in?
Uthai Thani (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-L-W-L-D. Ratchaburi (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-D-L-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Uthai Thani's attacking strength (1.05x league average) is weighed against Ratchaburi's defensive record (1.37x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 2.38. Flip it around — Ratchaburi's attack (0.92x) against Uthai Thani's defence (0.92x) — and the away total comes out at 1.02.
These ratings are built from 44/45 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 2-1, at 9.6%. Close behind: 2-0 (9.4%), 1-1 (9.2%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Uthai Thani Win
67%
1.50
20%
5.09
14%
7.26
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.6%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
9.4%
Home win
1 – 1
8.1%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.38
Uthai Thani xG
Total xG
3.40
1.02
Ratchaburi xG
1.50
67%
Home win
5.09
20%
Draw
7.26
14%
Away win
Goals Markets
85%
Over 1.5
1.18
15%
Under 1.5
6.67
66%
Over 2.5
1.52
34%
Under 2.5
2.94
44%
Over 3.5
2.27
56%
Under 3.5
1.79
26%
Over 4.5
3.85
74%
Under 4.5
1.35
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
59%
BTTS Yes
1.70
41%
BTTS No
2.43
Clean Sheet
36%
2.78
9%
10.78
Win to Nil
24%
4.17
1%
78.31
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.3 | 3.4 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 7.9 | 8.1 | 4.1 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.4 | 9.6 | 4.9 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 7.5 | 7.6 | 3.9 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 4.5 | 4.5 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 2.1 | 2.2 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Uthai Thani vs Ratchaburi?
Our Poisson model rates 2-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.6%.
How many goals are Uthai Thani and Ratchaburi expected to score?
The model projects 2.38 expected goals for Uthai Thani and 1.02 for Ratchaburi, a combined total of 3.40.
How confident is the prediction model for Uthai Thani vs Ratchaburi?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 67%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Uthai Thani come into this having played 44 games, going 14W 12D 18L for 1.23 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-W-L-D. The sample for Uthai Thani is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Ratchaburi sit at 1.32 PPG from 44 outings (16W 10D 18L), a run that reads L-D-L-W-L across their last five. The sample for Ratchaburi is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.23 PPG for Uthai Thani against 1.32 for Ratchaburi. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
Uthai Thani's home form reads 7W 8D 5L across 20 games on their own ground, a 1.45 PPG return.
Away from home, Ratchaburi have taken 0.75 points per game from 20 outings (3W 6D 11L). That's a step down from their 1.32 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Ratchaburi's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Uthai Thani come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Uthai Thani are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.64 conceded per game recently; Ratchaburi are on 1.45 scored and 1.36 conceded.
Last 44 Results — Thai League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Uthai Thani
Blended
Ratchaburi
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Uthai Thani and Ratchaburi in coming into this match?
Uthai Thani have gone 14W 12D 18L in their last 44 games (1.23 PPG), while Ratchaburi have gone 16W 10D 18L in their last 44 (1.32 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Uthai Thani at home or Ratchaburi away?
Uthai Thani's home record (1.45 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Uthai Thani at home: 1.45 PPG; Ratchaburi away: 0.75 PPG.
Have Uthai Thani or Ratchaburi been keeping clean sheets recently?
Uthai Thani have kept a clean sheet in 16% of their recent games, Ratchaburi in 32%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 6 times that we have on record, stretching back to September 2023 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 2 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Thai League 1. They last met on 28 February 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Ratchaburi have won the last 3 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Uthai Thani have gone 1W 0D 2L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Ratchaburi — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
1
Uthai Thani
1
Draws
4
Ratchaburi
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Uthai Thani and Ratchaburi?
From 6 meetings on record, Uthai Thani have won 1, Ratchaburi have won 4, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Uthai Thani and Ratchaburi last play each other?
They last met on 28 February 2026, when Ratchaburi 3-1 Uthai Thani.
Who has won more matches between Uthai Thani and Ratchaburi?
Ratchaburi have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Uthai Thani are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
Ratchaburi are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Uthai Thani 65%, Ratchaburi 40% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 45% (Uthai Thani) and 40% (Ratchaburi).
On the defensive side: Ratchaburi in 45%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Uthai Thani home games / Ratchaburi away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Uthai Thani play Ratchaburi?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 65% of Uthai Thani's recent matches and 40% of Ratchaburi's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Uthai Thani vs Ratchaburi usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 45% of Uthai Thani's recent games and 40% of Ratchaburi's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Uthai Thani and Ratchaburi tend to score early?
Uthai Thani have had a goal before half-time in 65% of their recent matches, Ratchaburi in 65% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Ratchaburi defy the odds to beat Uthai Thani 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Ratchaburi beat Uthai Thani 1-2 at Uthai Thani Province Stadium, Regular Season - 16, in the Thai League 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Uthai Thani 2.38 xG and Ratchaburi 1.02 xG, a combined 3.40. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Uthai Thani fell 1.4 short of their projected output. Ratchaburi outscored their 1.02 projection by 1.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Uthai Thani attack 1.05 / defence 0.92 against Ratchaburi attack 0.92 / defence 1.37, drawn from 44/45 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Uthai Thani 67% | Draw 20% | Ratchaburi 14%, with Uthai Thani to win its most likely call at 67%. Instead the game produced a Ratchaburi win, an outcome the model had rated at just 14% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 66%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 86% and landed. Over 3.5 was 44% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Uthai Thani 54%, Ratchaburi 52%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Uthai Thani's trading profile (44 games, 20 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.
Ratchaburi's trading profile (44 games, 20 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Uthai Thani 1.23 PPG, Ratchaburi 1.32 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Ratchaburi win broke the near-deadlock. Ratchaburi (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.80 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.