Uthai Thani 0-1 Port FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Uthai Thani at 48%, yet in-form Port FC provide a compelling counter-argument — this Uthai Thani vs Port FC fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
Uthai Thani welcome Port FC to Uthai Thani Provincial Stadium in Thai League 1 (matchday 28). Kick-off is Saturday 25 April 2026 at 14:00 UK time.
Form Guide
Uthai Thani — last 10 games: 3W 4D 3L, averaging 1.30 points per game. Last five: L L D D W. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).
In front of their own supporters, Uthai Thani have posted 5W 3D 2L from their last 10 home games — 1.80 PPG. They are averaging 2.40 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.80 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.30 — Uthai Thani are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Across their last 10 games, Port FC have recorded 6W 3D 1L — 2.10 PPG. Last five: W D W W D. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 0.70. Defensively, 0.70 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not.
Port FC's away record over their last 10 away games: 5W 2D 3L (1.70 PPG). Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from their last 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
Form points away from home here. Port FC's 2.10 PPG return is 0.80 points per game ahead of Uthai Thani's 1.30 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
Head to Head
The H2H picture is flat: the 5 H2H matches we hold have produced 0 wins for Uthai Thani, 2 for Port FC and 3 draws. Form and model data should carry more weight here.
The 5 H2H matches in our data have been high-scoring — 4.0 goals per game on average — which backs the Over 2.5 market from the head-to-head side. The most recent of those, on 7 Dec 2025, ended Uthai Thani 1–3 Port FC — a Port FC win.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 4.0 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Uthai Thani in-play and half-time data (last 56 games, 27 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 70% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; of the 20 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 40%; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (home games).
Port FC in-play and half-time data (last 56 games, 27 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 78% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 57% of the time; of the 14 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 43%; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Uthai Thani 59% versus Port FC 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Uthai Thani 48% | Port FC 52%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Uthai Thani 1.70 xG and Port FC 1.13 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Uthai Thani attack 1.206 / defence 0.917 | Port FC attack 1.150 / defence 0.958. League average goals — home 1.474 / away 1.070. Data: built from Uthai Thani's last 56 games and Port FC's last 57.
Result probabilities: Uthai Thani 48% | Draw 29% | Port FC 23%. Fair-value odds: Uthai Thani 2.06 | Draw 3.49 | Port FC 4.36. Uthai Thani hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (29%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 54% | BTTS Yes probability 58% | Total xG 2.83. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 54%/46% — the total xG of 2.83 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 58% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Uthai Thani are the pick at 48% — moderate model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Port FC (2.10 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — the model adjusts for opposition strength, which raw form results do not. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Uthai Thani offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.83 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 54% — strong conviction, supported by recent form (Uthai Thani's last 10 home games and Port FC's last 10 away games) averaging 3.0 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 4.0 goals per game across 5 H2H matches.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 58% on Yes. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Uthai Thani 60% (last 10 home games) | Port FC 50% (last 10 away games).
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Uthai Thani vs Port FC | Competition: Thai League 1, matchday 28 | Venue: Uthai Thani Provincial Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 25 April 2026 at 14:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Uthai Thani 48% | Draw 29% | Port FC 23% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 54% (Under 46%) | BTTS Yes 58% (No 42%) | xG Uthai Thani 1.70 / Port FC 1.13 • Poisson strength factors: Uthai Thani attack 1.206 / def 0.917 | Port FC attack 1.150 / def 0.958 | league avg home 1.474 / away 1.070 • Poisson stance: Uthai Thani (48%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.70
Uthai Thani xG
Expected Goals
1.13
Port FC xG
58%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
54%
Over 2.5
31%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Uthai Thani vs Port FC FAQs
What time does Uthai Thani vs Port FC kick off?
Uthai Thani vs Port FC kicked off at 14:00 UK time on Saturday 25 April 2026 at Uthai Thani Provincial Stadium.
What was the final score in Uthai Thani vs Port FC?
Uthai Thani 0 - 1 Port FC.
Where is Uthai Thani vs Port FC being played?
The match is being played at Uthai Thani Provincial Stadium.
What competition is Uthai Thani vs Port FC part of?
Uthai Thani vs Port FC is a Thai League 1 fixture (matchday 28) (Thailand).
Who is favourite to win Uthai Thani vs Port FC?
Our statistical model gives Uthai Thani a 48% chance of winning, Port FC a 23% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Uthai Thani the favourite.
Will both teams score in Uthai Thani vs Port FC?
Our model estimates a 58% probability that both Uthai Thani and Port FC will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Uthai Thani vs Port FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 54%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Uthai Thani's attacking strength (1.21x league average) is weighed against Port FC's defensive record (0.96x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.70. The same calculation in reverse, Port FC's attack versus Uthai Thani's defence, projects 1.13 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Uthai Thani's last 56 games and Port FC's last 57 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.8%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.6%), 1-0 (8.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Uthai Thani Win
48%
2.06
29%
3.49
23%
4.36
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.3%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.0%
Home win
2 – 1
9.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.70
Uthai Thani xG
Total xG
2.83
1.13
Port FC xG
2.06
48%
Home win
3.49
29%
Draw
4.36
23%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
54%
Over 2.5
1.85
46%
Under 2.5
2.17
31%
Over 3.5
3.23
69%
Under 3.5
1.45
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
58%
BTTS Yes
1.74
42%
BTTS No
2.36
Clean Sheet
32%
3.09
18%
5.48
Win to Nil
16%
6.37
4%
23.94
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.9 | 6.7 | 3.8 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.0 | 11.3 | 6.4 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.5 | 9.6 | 5.4 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.8 | 5.5 | 3.1 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.1 | 2.3 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Uthai Thani vs Port FC Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Uthai Thani vs Port FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.8%.
How many goals are Uthai Thani and Port FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.70 expected goals for Uthai Thani and 1.13 for Port FC, a combined total of 2.83.
How confident is the prediction model for Uthai Thani vs Port FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Uthai Thani come into this having played 56 games, going 16W 19D 21L for 1.20 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-D-D-W.
On the other side, Port FC sit at 1.71 PPG from 56 outings (27W 15D 14L), a run that reads W-D-W-W-D across their last five.
Port FC carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.51 PPG clear of Uthai Thani — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
Uthai Thani's home form reads 11W 10D 6L across their last 27 home games, a 1.59 PPG return.
Away from home, Port FC have taken 1.33 points per game from their last 27 away games (10W 6D 11L).
The Goals Picture
Uthai Thani are averaging 1.34 goals scored and 1.32 conceded per game recently; Port FC are on 1.79 scored and 1.05 conceded.
Last 56 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Uthai Thani
Blended
Port FC
Blended
Uthai Thani (Home) vs Port FC (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Uthai Thani
Blended
Port FC
Blended
❓ Uthai Thani vs Port FC Form FAQs
What form are Uthai Thani and Port FC in coming into this match?
Uthai Thani have gone 16W 19D 21L in their last 56 games (1.20 PPG), while Port FC have gone 27W 15D 14L in their last 56 (1.71 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Uthai Thani at home or Port FC away?
Uthai Thani's home record (1.59 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Uthai Thani at home: 1.59 PPG; Port FC away: 1.33 PPG.
Have Uthai Thani or Port FC been keeping clean sheets recently?
Uthai Thani have kept a clean sheet in 21% of their recent games, Port FC in 32%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 6 H2H matches in our data, going back to October 2023. All of them came in Thai League 1. The most recent was on 25 April 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
There's a clear recent trend here: Port FC have taken the most recent 2 H2H results in our data.
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 6 Oct 2023, when Port FC won Uthai Thani 1-5 Port FC.
Uthai Thani's record when hosting Port FC specifically: 0W 1D 2L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
0
Uthai Thani
3
Draws
3
Port FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Uthai Thani vs Port FC H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Uthai Thani and Port FC?
Across the 6 head-to-head matches in our data, Uthai Thani have won 0, Port FC have won 3, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Uthai Thani and Port FC last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 25 April 2026: Uthai Thani 0-1 Port FC.
Who has won more matches between Uthai Thani and Port FC?
Port FC have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from the 6 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Uthai Thani are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 71% of those situations.
Port FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 38% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Uthai Thani 59%, Port FC 52% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 52% (Uthai Thani) and 44% (Port FC).
On the defensive side: Port FC in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Uthai Thani home games / Port FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Uthai Thani vs Port FC Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Uthai Thani and Port FC matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 59% of Uthai Thani's games and 52% of Port FC's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Uthai Thani and Port FC matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 52% of Uthai Thani's recent games and 44% of Port FC's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Uthai Thani and Port FC matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 70% of Uthai Thani's recent matches and 78% of Port FC's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Port FC defy the odds to beat Uthai Thani 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Port FC beat Uthai Thani 0-1 at Uthai Thani Provincial Stadium, Regular Season - 28, in the Thai League 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Uthai Thani 1.70 xG and Port FC 1.13 xG, a combined 2.83. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Uthai Thani fell 1.7 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Uthai Thani attack 1.21 / defence 0.92 against Port FC attack 1.15 / defence 0.96, drawn from 56/57 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Uthai Thani 48% | Draw 29% | Port FC 23%, with Uthai Thani to win its most likely call at 48%. Instead the game produced a Port FC win, an outcome the model had rated at just 23% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 80% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Uthai Thani 48%, Port FC 52%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Uthai Thani's trading profile (56 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 29% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Port FC's trading profile (56 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Port FC arrived the stronger side — 1.71 PPG against 1.20. Form held, and they took the win. Uthai Thani (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.78 scoring average — below par going forward. Port FC (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.33 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.