Trat FC 1-0 Prachuap – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Trat FC at 45%, yet other data sources diverge — this Trat FC vs Prachuap fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Thai League 1 encounter, Regular Season - 9 sees Prachuap travel to Trat Provincial Central Stadium to take on Trat FC. The game is scheduled for Sunday 29 October 2023, 10:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Trat FC stand at 2W 3D 3L from 8 Thai League 1 matches — 1.12 PPG. Last five: L W L W L. They are averaging 1.12 goals per game and conceding 2.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 2 clean sheets from 8 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Trat FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Trat Provincial Central Stadium, Trat FC have gone 2W 2D 0L this season (4 games, 2.00 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 75% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.12 — Trat FC are significantly better at Trat Provincial Central Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Prachuap — All Games: 2W 3D 5L from 10 Thai League 1 fixtures this season — 0.90 PPG. Last five: L L L D L. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.90. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Prachuap, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Thai League 1 this season, Prachuap have posted 1W 5D 4L from 10 away outings — 0.80 PPG. Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.12 PPG (Trat FC) versus 0.90 (Prachuap). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
Both teams score in over 70% of each side's relevant games (using home/away splits). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
Trading Patterns
Trat FC in-play and half-time data (8 games, 4 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 33% of the time; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 75% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 50%; they fail to score in 50% of games.
Prachuap in-play and half-time data (8 games, 4 at away): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 50%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Trat FC 50% and Prachuap 75% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Trat FC 75% | Prachuap 62%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Trat FC 1.86 xG and Prachuap 1.51 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Trat FC attack 1.020 / defence 1.175 | Prachuap attack 1.033 / defence 1.035. League average goals — home 1.762 / away 1.248. Data: 8 Trat FC games / 38 Prachuap games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Trat FC 45% | Draw 24% | Prachuap 31%. Fair-value odds: Trat FC 2.22 | Draw 4.17 | Prachuap 3.23. Trat FC hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 66% | BTTS probability 67% | Total xG 3.38. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 66% — a total xG of 3.38 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 67% reflects that both xG figures (1.86 / 1.51) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Trat FC are the pick at 45% — moderate model lean. With a 24% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Trat FC offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.38 combined xG gives a 66% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 67% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Trat FC 75% | Prachuap 70% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Trat FC vs Prachuap | Competition: Thai League 1, Regular Season - 9 | Venue: Trat Provincial Central Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 29 Oct 2023, 10:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Trat FC 45% | Draw 24% | Prachuap 31% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 66% | BTTS 67% | xG Trat FC 1.86 / Prachuap 1.51 • Poisson strength factors: Trat FC attack 1.020 / def 1.175 | Prachuap attack 1.033 / def 1.035 | league avg home 1.762 / away 1.248 • Poisson stance: Trat FC (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.86
Trat FC xG
Expected Goals
1.51
Prachuap xG
67%
BTTS
86%
Over 1.5
66%
Over 2.5
44%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Trat FC vs Prachuap kick off?
Trat FC vs Prachuap kicked off at 10:30 on Sunday 29 October 2023 at Trat Provincial Central Stadium.
What was the final score in Trat FC vs Prachuap?
Trat FC 1 - 0 Prachuap.
Where is Trat FC vs Prachuap being played?
The match is being played at Trat Provincial Central Stadium.
What competition is Trat FC vs Prachuap part of?
Trat FC vs Prachuap is a Regular Season - 9 fixture in the Thai League 1 (Thailand).
Who is favourite to win Trat FC vs Prachuap?
Our statistical model gives Trat FC a 45% chance of winning, Prachuap a 31% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Trat FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Trat FC vs Prachuap?
Our model estimates a 67% probability that both Trat FC and Prachuap will score (BTTS).
Will Trat FC vs Prachuap have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 66%.
What is the head-to-head record between Trat FC and Prachuap?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Trat FC and Prachuap in?
Trat FC (all comps): 2W-3D-3L in 8 | 1.12 PPG | GF 1.12 / GA 2.00 | L5 L-W-L-W-L. Prachuap (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.90 | L5 L-L-L-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Trat FC's attack at 1.02x the league average against Prachuap's defence at 1.03x — combine the two and it projects 1.86 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Prachuap's attack versus Trat FC's defence, projects 1.51 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 8/38 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 10.9% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.0%), 1-2 (7.3%). Together the top three scorelines make up 27% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Trat FC Win
45%
2.21
24%
4.16
31%
3.25
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
9.6%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.0%
Home win
1 – 2
7.3%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.86
Trat FC xG
Total xG
3.38
1.51
Prachuap xG
2.21
45%
Home win
4.16
24%
Draw
3.25
31%
Away win
Goals Markets
85%
Over 1.5
1.18
15%
Under 1.5
6.67
66%
Over 2.5
1.52
34%
Under 2.5
2.94
44%
Over 3.5
2.27
56%
Under 3.5
1.79
25%
Over 4.5
4.00
75%
Under 4.5
1.33
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
67%
BTTS Yes
1.50
33%
BTTS No
3.00
Clean Sheet
22%
4.55
16%
6.43
Win to Nil
10%
10.07
5%
20.88
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.4 | 5.2 | 3.9 | 2.0 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 6.4 | 9.6 | 7.3 | 3.7 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.9 | 9.0 | 6.8 | 3.4 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 3.7 | 5.6 | 4.2 | 2.1 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.7 | 2.6 | 2.0 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.6 | 1.0 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Trat FC vs Prachuap?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.9%.
How many goals are Trat FC and Prachuap expected to score?
The model projects 1.86 expected goals for Trat FC and 1.51 for Prachuap, a combined total of 3.38.
How confident is the prediction model for Trat FC vs Prachuap?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Trat FC come into this having played 8 games, going 2W 3D 3L for 1.12 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-L-W-L. The sample for Trat FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Prachuap sit at 0.75 PPG from 8 outings (1W 3D 4L), a run that reads L-L-L-D-L across their last five. The sample for Prachuap is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Trat FC on 1.12 PPG, Prachuap on 0.75. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Trat FC's home form reads 2W 2D 0L across 4 games on their own ground, a 2.00 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.12 PPG overall — Trat FC are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Prachuap have taken 0.50 points per game from 4 outings (0W 2D 2L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Trat FC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Trat FC are averaging 1.12 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game recently; Prachuap are on 1.25 scored and 1.88 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Prachuap in 75%.
Last 8 Results — Thai League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Trat FC
Blended
Prachuap
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Trat FC and Prachuap in coming into this match?
Trat FC have gone 2W 3D 3L in their last 8 games (1.12 PPG), while Prachuap have gone 1W 3D 4L in their last 8 (0.75 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Trat FC at home or Prachuap away?
Trat FC's home record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Trat FC at home: 2.00 PPG; Prachuap away: 0.50 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Trat FC and Prachuap runs to 2 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Thai League 1. It has been a while since the last meeting — 2 April 2024, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
1
Trat FC
0
Draws
1
Prachuap
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Trat FC and Prachuap?
From 2 meetings on record, Trat FC have won 1, Prachuap have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Trat FC and Prachuap last play each other?
They last met on 2 April 2024, when Prachuap 2-1 Trat FC.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Trat FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
Prachuap see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Trat FC at 75%, Prachuap at 75%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 75% for Trat FC and 50% for Prachuap. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 50% and 50% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Trat FC home games / Prachuap away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Trat FC play Prachuap?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 75% of Trat FC's games and 75% of Prachuap's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Trat FC vs Prachuap usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 75% of Trat FC's matches and 50% of Prachuap's.
Do Trat FC and Prachuap tend to score early?
Trat FC have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, Prachuap in 50% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Trat FC edge out Prachuap 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Trat FC beat Prachuap 1-0 at Trat Provincial Central Stadium, Regular Season - 9, in the Thai League 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Trat FC 1.86 xG and Prachuap 1.51 xG, a combined 3.38. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Trat FC fell 0.9 short of their projected output. Prachuap landed 1.5 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Trat FC attack 1.02 / defence 1.18 against Prachuap attack 1.03 / defence 1.03, drawn from 8/38 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Trat FC 45% | Draw 24% | Prachuap 31%, with Trat FC to win its most likely call at 45%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 66%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 86% and missed. Over 3.5 was 44% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 67% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 69% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Trat FC 75%, Prachuap 62%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Trat FC's trading profile (8 games, 4 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not.
Prachuap's trading profile (8 games, 4 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 75% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Trat FC 1.12 PPG, Prachuap 0.75 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Trat FC win broke the near-deadlock. Trat FC (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.00 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.50 average — tighter than their form line. Prachuap (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.25 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 1 against a 2.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.