Suphanburi 1-3 Nong Bua Pitchaya – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Suphanburi at 44%, yet other data sources diverge — this Suphanburi vs Nong Bua Pitchaya fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Thai League 1 clash, Regular Season - 23 as Suphanburi welcome Nong Bua Pitchaya to Suphanburi Municipality Stadium. Kick-off is set for Sunday 6 March 2022 at 11:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Thai League 1 games this season, Suphanburi have gone 6W 0D 4L from 10 outings — a 1.80 PPG return. Last five: W L L W L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Suphanburi, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Suphanburi's form when playing at home: 4W 3D 3L across 10 games at Suphanburi Municipality Stadium this term (1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Nong Bua Pitchaya — All Games: 3W 4D 3L from 10 Thai League 1 fixtures this season — 1.30 PPG. Last five: W D D L W. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Nong Bua Pitchaya, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Nong Bua Pitchaya away from home this season: 0W 6D 4L from 10 away games — 0.60 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.60 is notably below their overall 1.30 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
On current form, Suphanburi have the edge — a 0.50 PPG advantage (1.80 vs 1.30) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Suphanburi register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Nong Bua Pitchaya in 80% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for Suphanburi, 1 for Nong Bua Pitchaya and 0 shared spoils from 1 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 1 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 24 Oct 2021, ended 1–2 with Nong Bua Pitchaya winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Suphanburi in-play and half-time data (23 games, 10 at home): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); they fail to score in 35% of games.
Nong Bua Pitchaya in-play and half-time data (23 games, 10 at away): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 80% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Suphanburi 56% versus Nong Bua Pitchaya 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Suphanburi 52% | Nong Bua Pitchaya 39%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Suphanburi 1.43 xG and Nong Bua Pitchaya 1.08 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Suphanburi attack 1.106 / defence 1.161 | Nong Bua Pitchaya attack 0.886 / defence 1.338. League average goals — home 0.967 / away 1.055. Nong Bua Pitchaya bring a strong defensive rating of 1.338 — this is suppressing Suphanburi's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 23 Suphanburi games / 23 Nong Bua Pitchaya games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Suphanburi 44% | Draw 28% | Nong Bua Pitchaya 28%. Fair-value odds: Suphanburi 2.27 | Draw 3.57 | Nong Bua Pitchaya 3.57. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.51. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.51 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Suphanburi as the most likely outcome at 44% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Suphanburi offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.51 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 46% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 51% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Suphanburi 60% | Nong Bua Pitchaya 80% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Suphanburi vs Nong Bua Pitchaya | Competition: Thai League 1, Regular Season - 23 | Venue: Suphanburi Municipality Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 6 Mar 2022, 11:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Suphanburi 44% | Draw 28% | Nong Bua Pitchaya 28% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 46% | BTTS 51% | xG Suphanburi 1.43 / Nong Bua Pitchaya 1.08 • Poisson strength factors: Suphanburi attack 1.106 / def 1.161 | Nong Bua Pitchaya attack 0.886 / def 1.338 | league avg home 0.967 / away 1.055 • Poisson stance: Suphanburi (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.43
Suphanburi xG
Expected Goals
1.08
Nong Bua Pitchaya xG
51%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
46%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Suphanburi vs Nong Bua Pitchaya kick off?
Suphanburi vs Nong Bua Pitchaya kicked off at 11:00 on Sunday 6 March 2022 at Suphanburi Municipality Stadium.
What was the final score in Suphanburi vs Nong Bua Pitchaya?
Suphanburi 1 - 3 Nong Bua Pitchaya.
Where is Suphanburi vs Nong Bua Pitchaya being played?
The match is being played at Suphanburi Municipality Stadium.
What competition is Suphanburi vs Nong Bua Pitchaya part of?
Suphanburi vs Nong Bua Pitchaya is a Regular Season - 23 fixture in the Thai League 1 (Thailand).
Who is favourite to win Suphanburi vs Nong Bua Pitchaya?
Our statistical model gives Suphanburi a 44% chance of winning, Nong Bua Pitchaya a 28% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Suphanburi the favourite.
Will both teams score in Suphanburi vs Nong Bua Pitchaya?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Suphanburi and Nong Bua Pitchaya will score (BTTS).
Will Suphanburi vs Nong Bua Pitchaya have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 46%.
What is the head-to-head record between Suphanburi and Nong Bua Pitchaya?
Record (1 meetings): Suphanburi 0W | Draws 0 | Nong Bua Pitchaya 1W.
What form are Suphanburi and Nong Bua Pitchaya in?
Suphanburi (all comps): 6W-0D-4L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-L-L-W-L. Nong Bua Pitchaya (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-D-D-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Suphanburi's attack at 1.11x the league average against Nong Bua Pitchaya's defence at 1.34x — combine the two and it projects 1.43 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Nong Bua Pitchaya's attack versus Suphanburi's defence, projects 1.08 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 23/23 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (9.9%), 0-0 (9.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Suphanburi Win
44%
2.25
28%
3.63
28%
3.56
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.5%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.6%
Home win
2 – 1
9.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.43
Suphanburi xG
Total xG
2.51
1.08
Nong Bua Pitchaya xG
2.25
44%
Home win
3.63
28%
Draw
3.56
28%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
46%
Over 2.5
2.17
54%
Under 2.5
1.85
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.96
49%
BTTS No
2.04
Clean Sheet
34%
2.96
24%
4.18
Win to Nil
15%
6.67
7%
14.88
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.1 | 8.8 | 4.8 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.6 | 12.5 | 6.8 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.3 | 9.0 | 4.9 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.9 | 4.3 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.4 | 1.5 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Suphanburi vs Nong Bua Pitchaya?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.2%.
How many goals are Suphanburi and Nong Bua Pitchaya expected to score?
The model projects 1.43 expected goals for Suphanburi and 1.08 for Nong Bua Pitchaya, a combined total of 2.51.
How confident is the prediction model for Suphanburi vs Nong Bua Pitchaya?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 23 outings, Suphanburi have picked up 1.09 PPG on a 7W 4D 12L record — W-L-L-W-L across the most recent five. The sample for Suphanburi is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Nong Bua Pitchaya's form line: 9W 7D 7L from 23 games, 1.48 PPG, last five W-D-D-L-W. The sample for Nong Bua Pitchaya is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Suphanburi on 1.09 PPG, Nong Bua Pitchaya on 1.48. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Suphanburi have posted 1.50 PPG from 10 outings (4W 3D 3L). That's noticeably better than their 1.09 PPG overall — Suphanburi are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Nong Bua Pitchaya have gone 0W 6D 4L from 10 away games — 0.60 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.48 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Nong Bua Pitchaya's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Suphanburi come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Suphanburi are averaging 1.09 goals scored and 1.43 conceded per game recently; Nong Bua Pitchaya are on 1.22 scored and 1.04 conceded.
Last 23 Results — Thai League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Suphanburi
Blended
Nong Bua Pitchaya
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Suphanburi and Nong Bua Pitchaya in coming into this match?
Suphanburi have gone 7W 4D 12L in their last 23 games (1.09 PPG), while Nong Bua Pitchaya have gone 9W 7D 7L in their last 23 (1.48 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Suphanburi at home or Nong Bua Pitchaya away?
Suphanburi's home record (1.50 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Suphanburi at home: 1.50 PPG; Nong Bua Pitchaya away: 0.60 PPG.
Have Suphanburi or Nong Bua Pitchaya been keeping clean sheets recently?
Suphanburi have kept a clean sheet in 13% of their recent games, Nong Bua Pitchaya in 30%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
2 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Thai League 1. It has been a while since the last meeting — 6 March 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Suphanburi
0
Draws
2
Nong Bua Pitchaya
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Suphanburi and Nong Bua Pitchaya?
From 2 meetings on record, Suphanburi have won 0, Nong Bua Pitchaya have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Suphanburi and Nong Bua Pitchaya last play each other?
They last met on 6 March 2022, when Suphanburi 1-3 Nong Bua Pitchaya.
Who has won more matches between Suphanburi and Nong Bua Pitchaya?
Nong Bua Pitchaya have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Suphanburi are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time.
Nong Bua Pitchaya are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Suphanburi at 60%, Nong Bua Pitchaya at 80%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Suphanburi) and 40% (Nong Bua Pitchaya).
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Suphanburi home games / Nong Bua Pitchaya away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Suphanburi play Nong Bua Pitchaya?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 60% of Suphanburi's games and 80% of Nong Bua Pitchaya's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Suphanburi vs Nong Bua Pitchaya usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Suphanburi's recent games and 40% of Nong Bua Pitchaya's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Suphanburi and Nong Bua Pitchaya tend to score early?
Suphanburi have had a goal before half-time in 70% of their recent matches, Nong Bua Pitchaya in 60% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Nong Bua Pitchaya cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over Suphanburi.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Nong Bua Pitchaya beat Suphanburi 1-3 at Suphanburi Municipality Stadium, Regular Season - 23, in the Thai League 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Suphanburi 1.43 xG and Nong Bua Pitchaya 1.08 xG, a combined 2.51. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Nong Bua Pitchaya outscored their 1.08 projection by 1.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Suphanburi attack 1.11 / defence 1.16 against Nong Bua Pitchaya attack 0.89 / defence 1.34, drawn from 23/23 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Suphanburi 44% | Draw 28% | Nong Bua Pitchaya 28%, with Suphanburi to win its most likely call at 44%. The actual Nong Bua Pitchaya win had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. Over 3.5 was 25% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Suphanburi 52%, Nong Bua Pitchaya 39%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Suphanburi's trading profile (23 games, 10 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.
Nong Bua Pitchaya's trading profile (23 games, 10 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Suphanburi 1.09 PPG, Nong Bua Pitchaya 1.48 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Nong Bua Pitchaya win broke the near-deadlock. Suphanburi (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.40 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Nong Bua Pitchaya (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.