Suphanburi 2-1 Chonburi FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Suphanburi at 39%, yet other data sources diverge — this Suphanburi vs Chonburi FC fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Thai League 1 clash, Regular Season - 21 as Suphanburi welcome Chonburi FC to Suphanburi Municipality Stadium. Kick-off is set for Sunday 20 February 2022 at 11:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Suphanburi stand at 5W 0D 5L from 10 Thai League 1 matches — 1.50 PPG. Last five: L W W L L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Suphanburi, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Suphanburi at Suphanburi Municipality Stadium this season: 3W 3D 3L from 9 home games — 1.33 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.44 goals scored and 1.44 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 56% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Across all Thai League 1 games this season, Chonburi FC have recorded 5W 2D 3L from 10 outings — 1.70 PPG. Last five: L W W L L. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.00. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Chonburi FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Chonburi FC away from home this season: 3W 2D 4L from 9 away games — 1.22 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.78 goals scored and 1.33 conceded per game.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Suphanburi 1.50 PPG, Chonburi FC 1.70 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 1 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for Suphanburi, 1 for Chonburi FC and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
These sides have historically produced few goals — 1.0 per contest from 1 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 10 Oct 2021, ended 0–1 with Chonburi FC winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Data
Suphanburi trading profile (21 games, 9 at home): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (home games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
Chonburi FC trading profile (21 games, 9 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Suphanburi 57% versus Chonburi FC 57%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Suphanburi 52% | Chonburi FC 52%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Suphanburi 1.34 xG and Chonburi FC 1.24 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Suphanburi attack 1.036 / defence 1.147 | Chonburi FC attack 0.967 / defence 1.299. League average goals — home 0.995 / away 1.116. Chonburi FC bring a strong defensive rating of 1.299 — this is suppressing Suphanburi's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 21 Suphanburi games / 21 Chonburi FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Suphanburi 39% | Draw 26% | Chonburi FC 34%. Fair-value odds: Suphanburi 2.56 | Draw 3.85 | Chonburi FC 2.94. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.58. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.58 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Suphanburi as the most likely outcome at 39% — marginal model lean. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Suphanburi offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.58 combined xG gives a 48% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration — though form averaging only 3.0 goals per game points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 52% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Suphanburi 56% | Chonburi FC 44%.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Suphanburi vs Chonburi FC | Competition: Thai League 1, Regular Season - 21 | Venue: Suphanburi Municipality Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 20 Feb 2022, 11:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Suphanburi 39% | Draw 26% | Chonburi FC 34% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 48% | BTTS 52% | xG Suphanburi 1.34 / Chonburi FC 1.24 • Poisson strength factors: Suphanburi attack 1.036 / def 1.147 | Chonburi FC attack 0.967 / def 1.299 | league avg home 0.995 / away 1.116 • Poisson stance: Suphanburi (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.34
Suphanburi xG
Expected Goals
1.24
Chonburi FC xG
52%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
48%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Suphanburi vs Chonburi FC kick off?
Suphanburi vs Chonburi FC kicked off at 11:00 on Sunday 20 February 2022 at Suphanburi Municipality Stadium.
What was the final score in Suphanburi vs Chonburi FC?
Suphanburi 2 - 1 Chonburi FC.
Where is Suphanburi vs Chonburi FC being played?
The match is being played at Suphanburi Municipality Stadium.
What competition is Suphanburi vs Chonburi FC part of?
Suphanburi vs Chonburi FC is a Regular Season - 21 fixture in the Thai League 1 (Thailand).
Who is favourite to win Suphanburi vs Chonburi FC?
Our statistical model gives Suphanburi a 39% chance of winning, Chonburi FC a 34% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Suphanburi the favourite.
Will both teams score in Suphanburi vs Chonburi FC?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Suphanburi and Chonburi FC will score (BTTS).
Will Suphanburi vs Chonburi FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 48%.
What is the head-to-head record between Suphanburi and Chonburi FC?
Record (1 meetings): Suphanburi 0W | Draws 0 | Chonburi FC 1W.
What form are Suphanburi and Chonburi FC in?
Suphanburi (all comps): 5W-0D-5L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-W-W-L-L. Chonburi FC (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.00 | L5 L-W-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Suphanburi's attack rating (1.04) and Chonburi FC's defence rating (1.30), the model arrives at 1.34 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Chonburi FC's attack versus Suphanburi's defence, projects 1.24 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 21/21 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.2%. Close behind: 0-0 (9.2%), 1-0 (8.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Suphanburi Win
39%
2.55
26%
3.78
34%
2.91
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.6%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.2%
Home win
0 – 1
9.4%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.34
Suphanburi xG
Total xG
2.58
1.24
Chonburi FC xG
2.55
39%
Home win
3.78
26%
Draw
2.91
34%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
48%
Over 2.5
2.08
52%
Under 2.5
1.92
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.91
48%
BTTS No
2.10
Clean Sheet
29%
3.45
26%
3.82
Win to Nil
11%
8.80
9%
11.12
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.6 | 9.4 | 5.8 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.2 | 12.6 | 7.8 | 3.2 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.8 | 8.4 | 5.2 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.0 | 3.8 | 2.3 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.3 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Suphanburi vs Chonburi FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.2%.
How many goals are Suphanburi and Chonburi FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.34 expected goals for Suphanburi and 1.24 for Chonburi FC, a combined total of 2.58.
How confident is the prediction model for Suphanburi vs Chonburi FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 21 outings, Suphanburi have picked up 1.05 PPG on a 6W 4D 11L record — L-W-W-L-L across the most recent five. The sample for Suphanburi is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Chonburi FC's form line: 10W 5D 6L from 21 games, 1.67 PPG, last five L-W-W-L-L. The sample for Chonburi FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Chonburi FC are the form team by 0.62 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Suphanburi.
Venue Form
On home soil, Suphanburi have posted 1.33 PPG from 9 outings (3W 3D 3L).
On the road, Chonburi FC have gone 3W 2D 4L from 9 away games — 1.22 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.67 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Chonburi FC's season.
Goals in Recent Form
Suphanburi are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.43 conceded per game recently; Chonburi FC are on 1.81 scored and 1.14 conceded.
Last 21 Results — Thai League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Suphanburi
Blended
Chonburi FC
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Suphanburi and Chonburi FC in coming into this match?
Suphanburi have gone 6W 4D 11L in their last 21 games (1.05 PPG), while Chonburi FC have gone 10W 5D 6L in their last 21 (1.67 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Suphanburi at home or Chonburi FC away?
Suphanburi's home record (1.33 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Suphanburi at home: 1.33 PPG; Chonburi FC away: 1.22 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
2 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Thai League 1. It has been a while since the last meeting — 20 February 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
1
Suphanburi
0
Draws
1
Chonburi FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Suphanburi and Chonburi FC?
From 2 meetings on record, Suphanburi have won 1, Chonburi FC have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Suphanburi and Chonburi FC last play each other?
They last met on 20 February 2022, when Suphanburi 2-1 Chonburi FC.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Suphanburi are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Chonburi FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Suphanburi 56%, Chonburi FC 44% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 44% (Suphanburi) and 56% (Chonburi FC).
On the defensive side: Chonburi FC in 44%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Suphanburi home games / Chonburi FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Suphanburi play Chonburi FC?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 56% of Suphanburi's recent matches and 44% of Chonburi FC's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Suphanburi vs Chonburi FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 44% of Suphanburi's recent games and 56% of Chonburi FC's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Suphanburi and Chonburi FC tend to score early?
Suphanburi have had a goal before half-time in 78% of their recent matches, Chonburi FC in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Suphanburi edge out Chonburi FC 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Suphanburi beat Chonburi FC 2-1 at Suphanburi Municipality Stadium, Regular Season - 21, in the Thai League 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Suphanburi 1.34 xG and Chonburi FC 1.24 xG, a combined 2.58. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Suphanburi attack 1.04 / defence 1.15 against Chonburi FC attack 0.97 / defence 1.30, drawn from 21/21 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Suphanburi 39% | Draw 26% | Chonburi FC 34%, with Suphanburi to win its most likely call at 39%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Suphanburi 52%, Chonburi FC 52%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Suphanburi's trading profile (21 games, 9 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.
Chonburi FC's trading profile (21 games, 9 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Chonburi FC arrived the stronger side — 1.67 PPG against 1.05. Form was overturned, with Suphanburi winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.