Sukhothai FC 1-3 Uthai Thani – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Sukhothai FC at 66%, yet other data sources diverge — this Sukhothai FC vs Uthai Thani fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Thai League 1 encounter, Regular Season - 26 sees Uthai Thani travel to Thung Talay Luang Stadium to take on Sukhothai FC. The game is scheduled for Saturday 27 April 2024, 13:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Sukhothai FC — All Games: 3W 2D 5L from 10 Thai League 1 outings this season, averaging 1.10 points per game. Last five: L W L W L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 2.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Sukhothai FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Thung Talay Luang Stadium, Sukhothai FC have gone 6W 1D 3L this season (10 games, 1.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.90 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.10 — Sukhothai FC are significantly better at Thung Talay Luang Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Across all Thai League 1 games this season, Uthai Thani have recorded 1W 5D 4L from 10 outings — 0.80 PPG. Last five: D D L W L. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Uthai Thani, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Uthai Thani's away record: 3W 2D 5L from 10 road trips in Thai League 1 this season (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Sukhothai FC at 1.10 PPG versus Uthai Thani's 0.80. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 1 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for Sukhothai FC, 0 for Uthai Thani and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The last 1 meetings have been tight affairs, averaging just 0.0 goals per game. That low-scoring pattern is a meaningful historical input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent clash, on 1 Dec 2023, ended 0–0 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 0.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Profile
Sukhothai FC in-play tendencies (25 games, 12 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 57% of the time; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
Uthai Thani in-play tendencies (25 games, 12 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 40%; they fail to score in 32% of games.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Sukhothai FC 64% and Uthai Thani 56% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Sukhothai FC 68% | Uthai Thani 52%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sukhothai FC 2.22 xG and Uthai Thani 0.94 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sukhothai FC attack 1.015 / defence 0.907 | Uthai Thani attack 0.887 / defence 1.284. League average goals — home 1.701 / away 1.172. Uthai Thani bring a strong defensive rating of 1.284 — this is suppressing Sukhothai FC's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 55 Sukhothai FC games / 25 Uthai Thani games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Sukhothai FC 66% | Draw 20% | Uthai Thani 14%. Fair-value odds: Sukhothai FC 1.52 | Draw 5.00 | Uthai Thani 7.14. The model has a clear lean to Sukhothai FC (66%) — a 52pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 61% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 3.16. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 61% — the 3.16 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Sukhothai FC as the most likely outcome at 66% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 20% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.16 combined xG gives a 61% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 55% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Sukhothai FC 70% | Uthai Thani 50% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sukhothai FC vs Uthai Thani | Competition: Thai League 1, Regular Season - 26 | Venue: Thung Talay Luang Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 27 Apr 2024, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sukhothai FC 66% | Draw 20% | Uthai Thani 14% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 61% | BTTS 55% | xG Sukhothai FC 2.22 / Uthai Thani 0.94 • Poisson strength factors: Sukhothai FC attack 1.015 / def 0.907 | Uthai Thani attack 0.887 / def 1.284 | league avg home 1.701 / away 1.172 • Poisson stance: Sukhothai FC (66%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.22
Sukhothai FC xG
Expected Goals
0.94
Uthai Thani xG
55%
BTTS
83%
Over 1.5
61%
Over 2.5
39%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Sukhothai FC vs Uthai Thani kick off?
Sukhothai FC vs Uthai Thani kicked off at 13:00 on Saturday 27 April 2024 at Thung Talay Luang Stadium.
What was the final score in Sukhothai FC vs Uthai Thani?
Sukhothai FC 1 - 3 Uthai Thani.
Where is Sukhothai FC vs Uthai Thani being played?
The match is being played at Thung Talay Luang Stadium.
What competition is Sukhothai FC vs Uthai Thani part of?
Sukhothai FC vs Uthai Thani is a Regular Season - 26 fixture in the Thai League 1 (Thailand).
Who is favourite to win Sukhothai FC vs Uthai Thani?
Our statistical model gives Sukhothai FC a 66% chance of winning, Uthai Thani a 14% chance, and a 20% chance of a draw — making Sukhothai FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sukhothai FC vs Uthai Thani?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both Sukhothai FC and Uthai Thani will score (BTTS).
Will Sukhothai FC vs Uthai Thani have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 61%.
What is the head-to-head record between Sukhothai FC and Uthai Thani?
Record (1 meetings): Sukhothai FC 0W | Draws 1 | Uthai Thani 0W.
What form are Sukhothai FC and Uthai Thani in?
Sukhothai FC (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 2.00 | L5 L-W-L-W-L. Uthai Thani (all comps): 1W-5D-4L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.70 | L5 D-D-L-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Sukhothai FC's attack rating (1.01) and Uthai Thani's defence rating (1.28), the model arrives at 2.22 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Uthai Thani's attack versus Sukhothai FC's defence, projects 0.94 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 55/25 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 2-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 10.4%. Close behind: 1-1 (10.0%), 2-1 (9.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Sukhothai FC Win
66%
1.52
20%
5.08
14%
6.96
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
10.4%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 1
9.8%
Home win
1 – 0
9.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.22
Sukhothai FC xG
Total xG
3.16
0.94
Uthai Thani xG
1.52
66%
Home win
5.08
20%
Draw
6.96
14%
Away win
Goals Markets
82%
Over 1.5
1.22
18%
Under 1.5
5.56
61%
Over 2.5
1.64
39%
Under 2.5
2.56
39%
Over 3.5
2.56
61%
Under 3.5
1.64
21%
Over 4.5
4.76
79%
Under 4.5
1.27
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.83
45%
BTTS No
2.21
Clean Sheet
39%
2.57
11%
9.19
Win to Nil
26%
3.89
2%
63.99
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.2 | 4.0 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 9.4 | 8.9 | 4.2 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.4 | 9.8 | 4.6 | 1.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 7.7 | 7.3 | 3.4 | 1.1 | 0.3 | – |
| 4 | 4.3 | 4.0 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.9 | 1.8 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Sukhothai FC vs Uthai Thani?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.4%.
How many goals are Sukhothai FC and Uthai Thani expected to score?
The model projects 2.22 expected goals for Sukhothai FC and 0.94 for Uthai Thani, a combined total of 3.16.
How confident is the prediction model for Sukhothai FC vs Uthai Thani?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 66%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Sukhothai FC's recent record stands at 8W 5D 12L from 25 games, a 1.16 PPG return, with L-W-L-W-L in the last five. The sample for Sukhothai FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Uthai Thani, meanwhile, have gone 6W 8D 11L across 25 games — 1.04 PPG, with D-D-L-W-L in their last five. The sample for Uthai Thani is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Sukhothai FC on 1.16 PPG, Uthai Thani on 1.04. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Sukhothai FC have managed 6W 2D 4L from 12 games — 1.67 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.16 PPG overall — Sukhothai FC are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Uthai Thani's away record stands at 3W 2D 7L across 12 trips, a 0.92 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Sukhothai FC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Sukhothai FC are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.76 conceded per game recently; Uthai Thani are on 1.24 scored and 1.88 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Sukhothai FC have seen both teams score in 64% of their recent games.
Last 25 Results — Thai League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sukhothai FC
Blended
Uthai Thani
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Sukhothai FC and Uthai Thani in coming into this match?
Sukhothai FC have gone 8W 5D 12L in their last 25 games (1.16 PPG), while Uthai Thani have gone 6W 8D 11L in their last 25 (1.04 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Sukhothai FC at home or Uthai Thani away?
Sukhothai FC's home record (1.67 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Sukhothai FC at home: 1.67 PPG; Uthai Thani away: 0.92 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Sukhothai FC and Uthai Thani runs to 6 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to December 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Thai League 1. They last met on 1 February 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 26 Jan 2025, when Uthai Thani won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Sukhothai FC's record when hosting Uthai Thani specifically: 0W 1D 2L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
0
Sukhothai FC
3
Draws
3
Uthai Thani
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Sukhothai FC and Uthai Thani?
From 6 meetings on record, Sukhothai FC have won 0, Uthai Thani have won 3, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Sukhothai FC and Uthai Thani last play each other?
They last met on 1 February 2026, when Sukhothai FC 1-1 Uthai Thani.
Who has won more matches between Sukhothai FC and Uthai Thani?
Uthai Thani have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Sukhothai FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Uthai Thani are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Sukhothai FC 58%, Uthai Thani 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 58% for Sukhothai FC and 67% for Uthai Thani. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 25% and 42% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Sukhothai FC keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Uthai Thani in 42%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sukhothai FC home games / Uthai Thani away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Sukhothai FC play Uthai Thani?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 58% of Sukhothai FC's recent matches and 50% of Uthai Thani's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Sukhothai FC vs Uthai Thani usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 58% of Sukhothai FC's matches and 67% of Uthai Thani's.
Do Sukhothai FC and Uthai Thani tend to score early?
Sukhothai FC have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Uthai Thani in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Uthai Thani cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over Sukhothai FC.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Uthai Thani beat Sukhothai FC 1-3 at Thung Talay Luang Stadium, Regular Season - 26, in the Thai League 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Sukhothai FC 2.22 xG and Uthai Thani 0.94 xG, a combined 3.16. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Sukhothai FC fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Uthai Thani outscored their 0.94 projection by 2.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sukhothai FC attack 1.01 / defence 0.91 against Uthai Thani attack 0.89 / defence 1.28, drawn from 55/25 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Sukhothai FC 66% | Draw 20% | Uthai Thani 14%, with Sukhothai FC to win its most likely call at 66%. Instead the game produced a Uthai Thani win, an outcome the model had rated at just 14% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 61%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 83% and landed. Over 3.5 was 39% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sukhothai FC 68%, Uthai Thani 52%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Sukhothai FC's trading profile (25 games, 12 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did.
Uthai Thani's trading profile (25 games, 12 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Sukhothai FC 1.16 PPG, Uthai Thani 1.04 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Uthai Thani win broke the near-deadlock. Sukhothai FC (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.08 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Uthai Thani (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.25 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 1 against a 2.17 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.