Sukhothai FC 1-1 Kanchanaburi – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Sukhothai FC at 76%, yet other data sources diverge — this Sukhothai FC vs Kanchanaburi fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Thalay Luang Stadium plays host to Sukhothai FC versus Kanchanaburi in Thai League 1, Regular Season - 11. Kick-off: Saturday 8 November 2025 at 11:00 UTC.
Form
Sukhothai FC (all games): 2W 5D 3L across 10 Thai League 1 fixtures this term — 1.10 PPG. Last five: D D D W L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Sukhothai FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Sukhothai FC's home record at Thalay Luang Stadium: 3W 3D 4L from 10 Thai League 1 appearances (1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Kanchanaburi have collected 0.70 PPG across 10 Thai League 1 outings this season: 1W 4D 5L. Last five: W L D L L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 2.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.10 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Kanchanaburi, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Thai League 1 this season, Kanchanaburi have posted 0W 1D 4L from 5 away outings — 0.20 PPG. Away from home they average 0.20 goals scored and 3.00 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.10 for Sukhothai FC, 0.70 for Kanchanaburi — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
Trading Data
Sukhothai FC goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (10 games, 4 at home): they score before half-time in 25% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); they fail to score in 30% of games.
Kanchanaburi goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (10 games, 4 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when winning at HT they fail to see it out 30% of the time; BTTS occurs in 0% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 25% of games (away games); they fail to score in 50% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Sukhothai FC 60% versus Kanchanaburi 40%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Sukhothai FC 30% | Kanchanaburi 40%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sukhothai FC 2.52 xG and Kanchanaburi 0.68 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sukhothai FC attack 1.044 / defence 0.981 | Kanchanaburi attack 0.574 / defence 1.608. League average goals — home 1.504 / away 1.214. Kanchanaburi bring a strong defensive rating of 1.608 — this is suppressing Sukhothai FC's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 39 Sukhothai FC games / 10 Kanchanaburi games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Sukhothai FC 76% | Draw 18% | Kanchanaburi 7%. Fair-value odds: Sukhothai FC 1.32 | Draw 5.56 | Kanchanaburi 14.29. The model has a clear lean to Sukhothai FC (76%) — a 69pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 62% | BTTS probability 47% | Total xG 3.21. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 62% — the 3.21 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 47% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Sukhothai FC are the pick at 76% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 18% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 3.21 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 62% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 47% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Sukhothai FC 80% | Kanchanaburi 20%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sukhothai FC vs Kanchanaburi | Competition: Thai League 1, Regular Season - 11 | Venue: Thalay Luang Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 8 Nov 2025, 11:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sukhothai FC 76% | Draw 18% | Kanchanaburi 7% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 62% | BTTS 47% | xG Sukhothai FC 2.52 / Kanchanaburi 0.68 • Poisson strength factors: Sukhothai FC attack 1.044 / def 0.981 | Kanchanaburi attack 0.574 / def 1.608 | league avg home 1.504 / away 1.214 • Poisson stance: Sukhothai FC (76%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.52
Sukhothai FC xG
Expected Goals
0.68
Kanchanaburi xG
47%
BTTS
84%
Over 1.5
62%
Over 2.5
40%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Sukhothai FC vs Kanchanaburi kick off?
Sukhothai FC vs Kanchanaburi kicked off at 11:00 on Saturday 8 November 2025 at Thalay Luang Stadium.
What was the final score in Sukhothai FC vs Kanchanaburi?
Sukhothai FC 1 - 1 Kanchanaburi.
Where is Sukhothai FC vs Kanchanaburi being played?
The match is being played at Thalay Luang Stadium.
What competition is Sukhothai FC vs Kanchanaburi part of?
Sukhothai FC vs Kanchanaburi is a Regular Season - 11 fixture in the Thai League 1 (Thailand).
Who is favourite to win Sukhothai FC vs Kanchanaburi?
Our statistical model gives Sukhothai FC a 76% chance of winning, Kanchanaburi a 7% chance, and a 18% chance of a draw — making Sukhothai FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sukhothai FC vs Kanchanaburi?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both Sukhothai FC and Kanchanaburi will score (BTTS).
Will Sukhothai FC vs Kanchanaburi have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 62%.
What is the head-to-head record between Sukhothai FC and Kanchanaburi?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Sukhothai FC and Kanchanaburi in?
Sukhothai FC (all comps): 2W-5D-3L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-D-D-W-L. Kanchanaburi (all comps): 1W-4D-5L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 2.10 | L5 W-L-D-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Sukhothai FC's attacking strength (1.04x league average) is weighed against Kanchanaburi's defensive record (1.61x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 2.52. Flip it around — Kanchanaburi's attack (0.57x) against Sukhothai FC's defence (0.98x) — and the away total comes out at 0.68.
These ratings are built from 39/10 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 2-0, at 12.9%. Close behind: 3-0 (10.8%), 1-0 (9.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Sukhothai FC Win
76%
1.32
18%
5.70
7%
15.34
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
12.9%
Home win
Most likely
3 – 0
10.8%
Home win
1 – 0
10.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.52
Sukhothai FC xG
Total xG
3.21
0.68
Kanchanaburi xG
1.32
76%
Home win
5.70
18%
Draw
15.34
7%
Away win
Goals Markets
83%
Over 1.5
1.20
17%
Under 1.5
5.88
62%
Over 2.5
1.61
38%
Under 2.5
2.63
40%
Over 3.5
2.50
60%
Under 3.5
1.67
22%
Over 4.5
4.55
78%
Under 4.5
1.28
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.13
53%
BTTS No
1.89
Clean Sheet
50%
1.98
8%
12.48
Win to Nil
38%
2.61
1%
191.39
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.0 | 2.8 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 1 | 10.2 | 7.0 | 2.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 2 | 12.9 | 8.8 | 3.0 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 10.8 | 7.4 | 2.5 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 6.8 | 4.7 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 3.5 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Sukhothai FC vs Kanchanaburi?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.9%.
How many goals are Sukhothai FC and Kanchanaburi expected to score?
The model projects 2.52 expected goals for Sukhothai FC and 0.68 for Kanchanaburi, a combined total of 3.21.
How confident is the prediction model for Sukhothai FC vs Kanchanaburi?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 76%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Sukhothai FC's recent record stands at 2W 5D 3L from 10 games, a 1.10 PPG return, with D-D-D-W-L in the last five. The sample for Sukhothai FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Kanchanaburi, meanwhile, have gone 1W 4D 5L across 10 games — 0.70 PPG, with W-L-D-L-L in their last five. The sample for Kanchanaburi is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Sukhothai FC by 0.40 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Kanchanaburi heading into this one.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Sukhothai FC have managed 2W 1D 1L from 4 games — 1.75 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.10 PPG overall — Sukhothai FC are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Kanchanaburi's away record stands at 0W 0D 4L across 4 trips, a 0.00 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 0.70 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Kanchanaburi's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Sukhothai FC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Sukhothai FC are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game recently; Kanchanaburi are on 1.00 scored and 2.10 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Sukhothai FC have seen both teams score in 60% of their recent games.
Last 10 Results — Thai League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sukhothai FC
Blended
Kanchanaburi
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Sukhothai FC and Kanchanaburi in coming into this match?
Sukhothai FC have gone 2W 5D 3L in their last 10 games (1.10 PPG), while Kanchanaburi have gone 1W 4D 5L in their last 10 (0.70 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Sukhothai FC at home or Kanchanaburi away?
Sukhothai FC's home record (1.75 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Sukhothai FC at home: 1.75 PPG; Kanchanaburi away: 0.00 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 2 times since November 2025 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Thai League 1. They last met on 15 March 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Sukhothai FC
1
Draws
1
Kanchanaburi
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Sukhothai FC and Kanchanaburi?
From 2 meetings on record, Sukhothai FC have won 0, Kanchanaburi have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Sukhothai FC and Kanchanaburi last play each other?
They last met on 15 March 2026, when Kanchanaburi 1-0 Sukhothai FC.
Who has won more matches between Sukhothai FC and Kanchanaburi?
Kanchanaburi have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Sukhothai FC tend to start slowly — only 25% of their games have a goal by half-time.
Kanchanaburi are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Sukhothai FC 75%, Kanchanaburi 0% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Sukhothai FC) and 25% (Kanchanaburi).
On the defensive side: Kanchanaburi in 100%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sukhothai FC home games / Kanchanaburi away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Sukhothai FC play Kanchanaburi?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 75% of Sukhothai FC's recent matches and 0% of Kanchanaburi's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Sukhothai FC vs Kanchanaburi usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Sukhothai FC's recent games and 25% of Kanchanaburi's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Sukhothai FC and Kanchanaburi tend to score early?
Sukhothai FC have had a goal before half-time in 25% of their recent matches, Kanchanaburi in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Sukhothai FC and Kanchanaburi share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Thalay Luang Stadium, Regular Season - 11, as Sukhothai FC and Kanchanaburi drew 1-1 in the Thai League 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Sukhothai FC 2.52 xG and Kanchanaburi 0.68 xG, a combined 3.21. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Sukhothai FC fell 1.5 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sukhothai FC attack 1.04 / defence 0.98 against Kanchanaburi attack 0.57 / defence 1.61, drawn from 39/10 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Sukhothai FC 76% | Draw 18% | Kanchanaburi 7%, with Sukhothai FC to win its most likely call at 76%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 18% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 62%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 84% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 35% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sukhothai FC 30%, Kanchanaburi 40%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Sukhothai FC's trading profile (10 games, 4 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.
Kanchanaburi's trading profile (10 games, 4 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Sukhothai FC arrived the stronger side — 1.10 PPG against 0.70. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Kanchanaburi (home/away splits) scored 1 against a 0.00 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 1 against a 3.50 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.