Rayong FC 2-3 Uthai Thani – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Rayong FC at 46% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Rayong FC vs Uthai Thani encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Rayong FC host Uthai Thani at WHA Rayong Stadium in Thai League 1, Regular Season - 20. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 1 February 2025 at 12:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Rayong FC — All Games: 4W 4D 2L from 10 Thai League 1 outings this season, averaging 1.60 points per game. Last five: W D L W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.70 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Rayong FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Rayong FC have posted 3W 5D 2L at WHA Rayong Stadium — 1.40 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Uthai Thani stand at 3W 1D 6L from 10 Thai League 1 matches — 1.00 PPG. Last five: D L L L W. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Uthai Thani, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Thai League 1 this season, Uthai Thani have posted 2W 2D 6L from 10 away outings — 0.80 PPG. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game.
On current form, Rayong FC have the edge — a 0.60 PPG advantage (1.60 vs 1.00) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for Rayong FC, 1 for Uthai Thani and 0 shared spoils from 1 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 1 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 4.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 15 Sep 2024, ended 1–3 with Uthai Thani winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Rayong FC in-play tendencies (19 games, 10 at home): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 75% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 80% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 47%.
Uthai Thani in-play tendencies (19 games, 10 at away): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Rayong FC 63% versus Uthai Thani 53%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Rayong FC 58% | Uthai Thani 58%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Rayong FC 1.75 xG and Uthai Thani 1.33 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Rayong FC attack 0.955 / defence 1.194 | Uthai Thani attack 0.946 / defence 1.037. League average goals — home 1.766 / away 1.179. Data: 19 Rayong FC games / 48 Uthai Thani games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Rayong FC 46% | Draw 26% | Uthai Thani 28%. Fair-value odds: Rayong FC 2.17 | Draw 3.85 | Uthai Thani 3.57. Rayong FC hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 59% | BTTS probability 62% | Total xG 3.08. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 59% — the 3.08 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 62% reflects that both xG figures (1.75 / 1.33) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Rayong FC at 46% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Rayong FC offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 3.08 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 59% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 62% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Rayong FC 80% | Uthai Thani 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Rayong FC vs Uthai Thani | Competition: Thai League 1, Regular Season - 20 | Venue: WHA Rayong Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 1 Feb 2025, 12:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Rayong FC 46% | Draw 26% | Uthai Thani 28% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 59% | BTTS 62% | xG Rayong FC 1.75 / Uthai Thani 1.33 • Poisson strength factors: Rayong FC attack 0.955 / def 1.194 | Uthai Thani attack 0.946 / def 1.037 | league avg home 1.766 / away 1.179 • Poisson stance: Rayong FC (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.75
Rayong FC xG
Expected Goals
1.33
Uthai Thani xG
62%
BTTS
83%
Over 1.5
59%
Over 2.5
37%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Rayong FC vs Uthai Thani kick off?
Rayong FC vs Uthai Thani kicked off at 12:00 on Saturday 1 February 2025 at WHA Rayong Stadium.
What was the final score in Rayong FC vs Uthai Thani?
Rayong FC 2 - 3 Uthai Thani.
Where is Rayong FC vs Uthai Thani being played?
The match is being played at WHA Rayong Stadium.
What competition is Rayong FC vs Uthai Thani part of?
Rayong FC vs Uthai Thani is a Regular Season - 20 fixture in the Thai League 1 (Thailand).
Who is favourite to win Rayong FC vs Uthai Thani?
Our statistical model gives Rayong FC a 46% chance of winning, Uthai Thani a 28% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Rayong FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Rayong FC vs Uthai Thani?
Our model estimates a 62% probability that both Rayong FC and Uthai Thani will score (BTTS).
Will Rayong FC vs Uthai Thani have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 59%.
What is the head-to-head record between Rayong FC and Uthai Thani?
Record (1 meetings): Rayong FC 0W | Draws 0 | Uthai Thani 1W.
What form are Rayong FC and Uthai Thani in?
Rayong FC (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.70 | L5 W-D-L-W-D. Uthai Thani (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.50 | L5 D-L-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Rayong FC's attack at 0.95x the league average against Uthai Thani's defence at 1.04x — combine the two and it projects 1.75 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Uthai Thani's attack versus Rayong FC's defence, projects 1.33 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 19/48 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.4%), 1-2 (7.1%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Rayong FC Win
46%
2.18
26%
3.84
28%
3.58
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.7%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.4%
Home win
1 – 0
8.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.75
Rayong FC xG
Total xG
3.08
1.33
Uthai Thani xG
2.18
46%
Home win
3.84
26%
Draw
3.58
28%
Away win
Goals Markets
81%
Over 1.5
1.23
19%
Under 1.5
5.26
59%
Over 2.5
1.69
41%
Under 2.5
2.44
37%
Over 3.5
2.70
63%
Under 3.5
1.59
20%
Over 4.5
5.00
80%
Under 4.5
1.25
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
62%
BTTS Yes
1.61
38%
BTTS No
2.64
Clean Sheet
26%
3.79
17%
5.75
Win to Nil
12%
8.24
5%
20.55
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.6 | 6.1 | 4.1 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 8.0 | 10.7 | 7.1 | 3.2 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 7.0 | 9.4 | 6.2 | 2.8 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.1 | 5.5 | 3.6 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.8 | 2.4 | 1.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.8 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Rayong FC vs Uthai Thani?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.1%.
How many goals are Rayong FC and Uthai Thani expected to score?
The model projects 1.75 expected goals for Rayong FC and 1.33 for Uthai Thani, a combined total of 3.08.
How confident is the prediction model for Rayong FC vs Uthai Thani?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Rayong FC's recent record stands at 5W 6D 8L from 19 games, a 1.11 PPG return, with W-D-L-W-D in the last five. The sample for Rayong FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Uthai Thani, meanwhile, have gone 6W 4D 9L across 19 games — 1.16 PPG, with D-L-L-L-W in their last five. The sample for Uthai Thani is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Rayong FC on 1.11 PPG, Uthai Thani on 1.16. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Rayong FC have managed 3W 5D 2L from 10 games — 1.40 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Uthai Thani's away record stands at 2W 2D 6L across 10 trips, a 0.80 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Rayong FC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Rayong FC are averaging 1.21 goals scored and 1.95 conceded per game recently; Uthai Thani are on 1.26 scored and 1.42 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Rayong FC have seen both teams score in 63% of their recent games.
Last 19 Results — Thai League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Rayong FC
Blended
Uthai Thani
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Rayong FC and Uthai Thani in coming into this match?
Rayong FC have gone 5W 6D 8L in their last 19 games (1.11 PPG), while Uthai Thani have gone 6W 4D 9L in their last 19 (1.16 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Rayong FC at home or Uthai Thani away?
Rayong FC's home record (1.40 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Rayong FC at home: 1.40 PPG; Uthai Thani away: 0.80 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Thai League 1. They last met on 18 April 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 18 Apr 2026, when Uthai Thani won 4-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Rayong FC's record when hosting Uthai Thani specifically: 1W 0D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Rayong FC
0
Draws
3
Uthai Thani
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Rayong FC and Uthai Thani?
From 4 meetings on record, Rayong FC have won 1, Uthai Thani have won 3, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Rayong FC and Uthai Thani last play each other?
They last met on 18 April 2026, when Uthai Thani 4-1 Rayong FC.
Who has won more matches between Rayong FC and Uthai Thani?
Uthai Thani have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Rayong FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 20% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 30% of those situations.
Uthai Thani are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Rayong FC at 80%, Uthai Thani at 50%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Rayong FC) and 50% (Uthai Thani).
On the defensive side: Uthai Thani in 40%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Rayong FC home games / Uthai Thani away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Rayong FC play Uthai Thani?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 80% of Rayong FC's games and 50% of Uthai Thani's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Rayong FC vs Uthai Thani usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Rayong FC's recent games and 50% of Uthai Thani's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Rayong FC and Uthai Thani tend to score early?
Rayong FC have had a goal before half-time in 80% of their recent matches, Uthai Thani in 70% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Uthai Thani defy the odds to beat Rayong FC 2-3.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Uthai Thani beat Rayong FC 2-3 at WHA Rayong Stadium, Regular Season - 20, in the Thai League 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Rayong FC 1.75 xG and Uthai Thani 1.33 xG, a combined 3.08. The scoreboard read 2-3 for 5 actual goals. Uthai Thani outscored their 1.33 projection by 1.7. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Rayong FC attack 0.95 / defence 1.19 against Uthai Thani attack 0.95 / defence 1.04, drawn from 19/48 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Rayong FC 46% | Draw 26% | Uthai Thani 28%, with Rayong FC to win its most likely call at 46%. The actual Uthai Thani win had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 59%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 83% and landed. Over 3.5 was 37% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 62% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Rayong FC 58%, Uthai Thani 58%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Rayong FC's trading profile (19 games, 10 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did.
Uthai Thani's trading profile (19 games, 10 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Rayong FC 1.11 PPG, Uthai Thani 1.16 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Uthai Thani win broke the near-deadlock. Rayong FC (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.50 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Uthai Thani (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.