Ratchaburi 1-1 Sukhothai FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Ratchaburi at 54%, yet other data sources diverge — this Ratchaburi vs Sukhothai FC fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Thai League 1 encounter, Regular Season - 22 sees Sukhothai FC travel to Dragon Solar Park to take on Ratchaburi. The game is scheduled for Saturday 4 March 2023, 12:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Thai League 1 games this season, Ratchaburi have gone 3W 2D 5L from 10 outings — a 1.10 PPG return. Last five: D W L L L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Ratchaburi, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Dragon Solar Park, Ratchaburi have gone 4W 4D 2L this season (10 games, 1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. Their home PPG of 1.60 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.10 — Ratchaburi are significantly better at Dragon Solar Park than their overall form suggests.
Sukhothai FC — All Games: 4W 2D 4L from 10 Thai League 1 fixtures this season — 1.40 PPG. Last five: L W L D W. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Sukhothai FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Sukhothai FC away from home this season: 2W 3D 5L from 10 away games — 0.90 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.10 PPG (Ratchaburi) versus 1.40 (Sukhothai FC). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 1 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for Ratchaburi, 1 for Sukhothai FC and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
These sides have historically produced few goals — 1.0 per contest from 1 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 8 Oct 2022, ended 0–1 with Sukhothai FC winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Data
Ratchaburi trading profile (21 games, 10 at home): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 20% of games (home games).
Sukhothai FC trading profile (21 games, 10 at away): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (away games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Ratchaburi 38% versus Sukhothai FC 43%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Ratchaburi 14% | Sukhothai FC 43%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Ratchaburi 1.51 xG and Sukhothai FC 0.79 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Ratchaburi attack 0.842 / defence 0.935 | Sukhothai FC attack 0.751 / defence 1.245. League average goals — home 1.437 / away 1.125. Sukhothai FC bring a strong defensive rating of 1.245 — this is suppressing Ratchaburi's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 51 Ratchaburi games / 21 Sukhothai FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Ratchaburi 54% | Draw 27% | Sukhothai FC 19%. Fair-value odds: Ratchaburi 1.85 | Draw 3.70 | Sukhothai FC 5.26. Ratchaburi hold a narrow Poisson edge at 54% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 40% | BTTS probability 43% | Total xG 2.30. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 60% — total xG of 2.30 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 43% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Ratchaburi as the most likely outcome at 54% — moderate model lean. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Ratchaburi offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.30 combined xG gives a 40% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 43% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Ratchaburi 50% | Sukhothai FC 60%.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Ratchaburi vs Sukhothai FC | Competition: Thai League 1, Regular Season - 22 | Venue: Dragon Solar Park • Kick-off: Saturday 4 Mar 2023, 12:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Ratchaburi 54% | Draw 27% | Sukhothai FC 19% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 40% | BTTS 43% | xG Ratchaburi 1.51 / Sukhothai FC 0.79 • Poisson strength factors: Ratchaburi attack 0.842 / def 0.935 | Sukhothai FC attack 0.751 / def 1.245 | league avg home 1.437 / away 1.125 • Poisson stance: Ratchaburi (54%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.51
Ratchaburi xG
Expected Goals
0.79
Sukhothai FC xG
43%
BTTS
67%
Over 1.5
40%
Over 2.5
20%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Ratchaburi vs Sukhothai FC kick off?
Ratchaburi vs Sukhothai FC kicked off at 12:00 on Saturday 4 March 2023 at Dragon Solar Park.
What was the final score in Ratchaburi vs Sukhothai FC?
Ratchaburi 1 - 1 Sukhothai FC.
Where is Ratchaburi vs Sukhothai FC being played?
The match is being played at Dragon Solar Park.
What competition is Ratchaburi vs Sukhothai FC part of?
Ratchaburi vs Sukhothai FC is a Regular Season - 22 fixture in the Thai League 1 (Thailand).
Who is favourite to win Ratchaburi vs Sukhothai FC?
Our statistical model gives Ratchaburi a 54% chance of winning, Sukhothai FC a 19% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Ratchaburi the favourite.
Will both teams score in Ratchaburi vs Sukhothai FC?
Our model estimates a 43% probability that both Ratchaburi and Sukhothai FC will score (BTTS).
Will Ratchaburi vs Sukhothai FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 40%.
What is the head-to-head record between Ratchaburi and Sukhothai FC?
Record (1 meetings): Ratchaburi 0W | Draws 0 | Sukhothai FC 1W.
What form are Ratchaburi and Sukhothai FC in?
Ratchaburi (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.00 | L5 D-W-L-L-L. Sukhothai FC (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-W-L-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Ratchaburi's attack rating (0.84) and Sukhothai FC's defence rating (1.25), the model arrives at 1.51 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Sukhothai FC's attack versus Ratchaburi's defence, projects 0.79 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 51/21 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.6%. Close behind: 1-1 (13.5%), 0-0 (11.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Ratchaburi Win
54%
1.86
27%
3.66
19%
5.25
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
15.2%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.0%
Draw
2 – 0
11.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.51
Ratchaburi xG
Total xG
2.30
0.79
Sukhothai FC xG
1.86
54%
Home win
3.66
27%
Draw
5.25
19%
Away win
Goals Markets
67%
Over 1.5
1.49
33%
Under 1.5
3.03
40%
Over 2.5
2.50
60%
Under 2.5
1.67
20%
Over 3.5
5.00
80%
Under 3.5
1.25
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
43%
BTTS Yes
2.32
57%
BTTS No
1.76
Clean Sheet
45%
2.20
22%
4.51
Win to Nil
24%
4.11
4%
23.67
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.1 | 8.0 | 3.1 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 15.2 | 12.0 | 4.7 | 1.2 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 11.4 | 9.0 | 3.6 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 5.7 | 4.5 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 2.2 | 1.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Ratchaburi vs Sukhothai FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.6%.
How many goals are Ratchaburi and Sukhothai FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.51 expected goals for Ratchaburi and 0.79 for Sukhothai FC, a combined total of 2.30.
How confident is the prediction model for Ratchaburi vs Sukhothai FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 54%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Ratchaburi's recent record stands at 9W 6D 6L from 21 games, a 1.57 PPG return, with D-W-L-L-L in the last five. The sample for Ratchaburi is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Sukhothai FC, meanwhile, have gone 6W 7D 8L across 21 games — 1.19 PPG, with L-W-L-D-W in their last five. The sample for Sukhothai FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Ratchaburi on 1.57 PPG, Sukhothai FC on 1.19. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Ratchaburi have managed 4W 4D 2L from 10 games — 1.60 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Sukhothai FC's away record stands at 2W 3D 5L across 10 trips, a 0.90 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Ratchaburi come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Ratchaburi are averaging 1.14 goals scored and 0.71 conceded per game recently; Sukhothai FC are on 0.81 scored and 1.43 conceded.
Defensively: Sukhothai FC in 38% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 21 Results — Thai League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Ratchaburi
Blended
Sukhothai FC
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Ratchaburi and Sukhothai FC in coming into this match?
Ratchaburi have gone 9W 6D 6L in their last 21 games (1.57 PPG), while Sukhothai FC have gone 6W 7D 8L in their last 21 (1.19 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Ratchaburi at home or Sukhothai FC away?
Ratchaburi's home record (1.60 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Ratchaburi at home: 1.60 PPG; Sukhothai FC away: 0.90 PPG.
Have Ratchaburi or Sukhothai FC been keeping clean sheets recently?
Ratchaburi have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Sukhothai FC in 38%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
8 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Thai League 1. They last met on 24 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Ratchaburi have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
Ratchaburi's record when hosting Sukhothai FC specifically: 2W 2D 0L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
3
Ratchaburi
2
Draws
3
Sukhothai FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Ratchaburi and Sukhothai FC?
From 8 meetings on record, Ratchaburi have won 3, Sukhothai FC have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Ratchaburi and Sukhothai FC last play each other?
They last met on 24 April 2026, when Sukhothai FC 1-2 Ratchaburi.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Ratchaburi see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Sukhothai FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Ratchaburi 50%, Sukhothai FC 60% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 20% for Ratchaburi and 40% for Sukhothai FC.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Ratchaburi home games / Sukhothai FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Ratchaburi play Sukhothai FC?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 50% of Ratchaburi's games and 60% of Sukhothai FC's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Ratchaburi vs Sukhothai FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 20% of Ratchaburi's recent games and 40% of Sukhothai FC's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Ratchaburi and Sukhothai FC tend to score early?
Ratchaburi have had a goal before half-time in 50% of their recent matches, Sukhothai FC in 70% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Ratchaburi and Sukhothai FC share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Ratchaburi and Sukhothai FC finished level at 1-1 at Dragon Solar Park, Regular Season - 22, in the Thai League 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Ratchaburi 1.51 xG and Sukhothai FC 0.79 xG, a combined 2.30. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Ratchaburi attack 0.84 / defence 0.94 against Sukhothai FC attack 0.75 / defence 1.25, drawn from 51/21 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Ratchaburi 54% | Draw 27% | Sukhothai FC 19%, with Ratchaburi to win its most likely call at 54%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 40%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 67% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 29% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Ratchaburi 14%, Sukhothai FC 43%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 40%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Ratchaburi's trading profile (21 games, 10 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 38% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Sukhothai FC's trading profile (21 games, 10 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Ratchaburi 1.57 PPG, Sukhothai FC 1.19 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Sukhothai FC (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 1.90 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.