Ratchaburi vs Sisaket United – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson rates Ratchaburi at 72% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Ratchaburi vs Sisaket United encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Thai League 1 clash, Regular Season - 21 as Ratchaburi welcome Sisaket United to Dragon Solar Park. Kick-off is set for Saturday 13 March 2027 at 11:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Thai League 1 games this season, Ratchaburi have gone 7W 1D 2L from 10 outings — a 2.20 PPG return. Last five: L W D W W. They are averaging 2.40 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Ratchaburi have played only a handful of Thai League 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
In front of their own supporters this season, Ratchaburi have posted 7W 2D 1L at Dragon Solar Park — 2.30 PPG. They are averaging 2.50 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Sisaket United — All Games: 2W 1D 2L from 5 Thai League 1 fixtures this season — 1.40 PPG. Last five: L L W W D. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 5 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Sisaket United have played only a handful of Thai League 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
On current form, Ratchaburi have the edge — a 0.80 PPG advantage (2.20 vs 1.40) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Ratchaburi register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Sisaket United in 60% (using overall form) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
In-Play Data
Ratchaburi trading profile (5 games): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures; they lead at the break 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time.
Sisaket United trading profile (5 games): they score before half-time in 40% of fixtures; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Ratchaburi 60% and Sisaket United 60% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Ratchaburi 60% | Sisaket United 40%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Ratchaburi 2.42 xG and Sisaket United 0.82 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Ratchaburi attack 1.496 / defence 0.769 | Sisaket United attack 0.823 / defence 1.112. League average goals — home 1.457 / away 1.292. Ratchaburi carry an above-average attack strength of 1.496 — their λ of 2.42 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Ratchaburi's defence rating of 0.769 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 35 Ratchaburi games / 5 Sisaket United games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Ratchaburi 72% | Draw 18% | Sisaket United 10%. Fair-value odds: Ratchaburi 1.39 | Draw 5.56 | Sisaket United 10.00. The model has a clear lean to Ratchaburi (72%) — a 62pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 63% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 3.24. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 63% — the 3.24 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Ratchaburi as the most likely outcome at 72% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 18% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 3.24 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 63% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 52% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Ratchaburi 60% | Sisaket United 60% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Ratchaburi vs Sisaket United | Competition: Thai League 1, Regular Season - 21 | Venue: Dragon Solar Park • Kick-off: Saturday 13 Mar 2027, 11:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Ratchaburi 72% | Draw 18% | Sisaket United 10% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 63% | BTTS 52% | xG Ratchaburi 2.42 / Sisaket United 0.82 • Poisson strength factors: Ratchaburi attack 1.496 / def 0.769 | Sisaket United attack 0.823 / def 1.112 | league avg home 1.457 / away 1.292 • Poisson stance: Ratchaburi (72%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.42
Ratchaburi xG
Expected Goals
0.82
Sisaket United xG
52%
BTTS
84%
Over 1.5
63%
Over 2.5
41%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Ratchaburi vs Sisaket United kick off?
Ratchaburi vs Sisaket United is scheduled to kick off at 11:00 on Saturday 13 March 2027 at Dragon Solar Park.
Where is Ratchaburi vs Sisaket United being played?
The match is being played at Dragon Solar Park.
What competition is Ratchaburi vs Sisaket United part of?
Ratchaburi vs Sisaket United is a Regular Season - 21 fixture in the Thai League 1 (Thailand).
Who is favourite to win Ratchaburi vs Sisaket United?
Our statistical model gives Ratchaburi a 72% chance of winning, Sisaket United a 10% chance, and a 18% chance of a draw — making Ratchaburi the favourite.
Will both teams score in Ratchaburi vs Sisaket United?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Ratchaburi and Sisaket United will score (BTTS).
Will Ratchaburi vs Sisaket United have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 63%.
What is the head-to-head record between Ratchaburi and Sisaket United?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Ratchaburi and Sisaket United in?
Ratchaburi (all comps): 7W-1D-2L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 2.40 / GA 0.80 | L5 L-W-D-W-W. Sisaket United (all comps): 2W-1D-2L in 5 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-L-W-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Ratchaburi's attack rating (1.50) and Sisaket United's defence rating (1.11), the model arrives at 2.42 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Sisaket United's attack versus Ratchaburi's defence, projects 0.82 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 35/5 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 2-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 11.5%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.4%), 3-0 (9.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Ratchaburi Win
72%
1.38
18%
5.68
10%
9.86
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
11.5%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 0
9.5%
Home win
2 – 1
9.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.42
Ratchaburi xG
Total xG
3.24
0.82
Sisaket United xG
1.38
72%
Home win
5.68
18%
Draw
9.86
10%
Away win
Goals Markets
83%
Over 1.5
1.20
17%
Under 1.5
5.88
63%
Over 2.5
1.59
37%
Under 2.5
2.70
41%
Over 3.5
2.44
59%
Under 3.5
1.69
23%
Over 4.5
4.35
77%
Under 4.5
1.30
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.94
48%
BTTS No
2.06
Clean Sheet
44%
2.27
9%
11.29
Win to Nil
32%
3.14
1%
111.35
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.9 | 3.2 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 9.5 | 7.8 | 3.2 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 11.5 | 9.4 | 3.8 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 9.3 | 7.6 | 3.1 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 5.6 | 4.6 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 2.7 | 2.2 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Ratchaburi vs Sisaket United?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.5%.
How many goals are Ratchaburi and Sisaket United expected to score?
The model projects 2.42 expected goals for Ratchaburi and 0.82 for Sisaket United, a combined total of 3.24.
How confident is the prediction model for Ratchaburi vs Sisaket United?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 72%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 5 outings, Ratchaburi have picked up 2.00 PPG on a 3W 1D 1L record — L-W-D-W-W across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Ratchaburi, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Sisaket United's form line: 2W 1D 2L from 5 games, 1.40 PPG, last five L-L-W-W-D. It's still early in the season for Sisaket United, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Put side by side, Ratchaburi are the form team by 0.60 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Sisaket United.
Goals in Recent Form
Ratchaburi are averaging 2.20 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game recently; Sisaket United are on 1.00 scored and 1.20 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Ratchaburi have seen both teams score in 60% of their recent games; Sisaket United in 60%.
Defensively: Ratchaburi have kept a clean sheet in 40% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 5 Results — Thai League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Ratchaburi
Early Season
Sisaket United
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Ratchaburi and Sisaket United in coming into this match?
Ratchaburi have gone 3W 1D 1L in their last 5 games (2.00 PPG), while Sisaket United have gone 2W 1D 2L in their last 5 (1.40 PPG).
Have Ratchaburi or Sisaket United been keeping clean sheets recently?
Ratchaburi have kept a clean sheet in 40% of their recent games, Sisaket United in 20%.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Ratchaburi are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 80% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 20% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Sisaket United see a goal before the break in 40% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Ratchaburi 60%, Sisaket United 60% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 60% (Ratchaburi) and 40% (Sisaket United).
On the defensive side: Ratchaburi keep a clean sheet in 40% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Ratchaburi home games / Sisaket United away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Ratchaburi play Sisaket United?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 60% of Ratchaburi's games and 60% of Sisaket United's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Ratchaburi vs Sisaket United usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 60% of Ratchaburi's recent games and 40% of Sisaket United's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Ratchaburi and Sisaket United tend to score early?
Ratchaburi have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, Sisaket United in 40% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.