Ratchaburi vs Pattani – Pre-Match Analysis

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Poisson rates Ratchaburi at 68% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Ratchaburi vs Pattani encounter.

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Full Analysis

Dragon Solar Park plays host to Ratchaburi versus Pattani in Thai League 1, Regular Season - 13. Kick-off: Sunday 20 December 2026 at 11:30 UTC.

Current Form

Ratchaburi's overall Thai League 1 record this term: 6W 1D 3L from 10 games (1.90 PPG). Last five: D W W L W. They are averaging 2.40 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Ratchaburi have played only a handful of Thai League 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.

Ratchaburi at Dragon Solar Park this season: 6W 2D 2L from 10 home games — 2.00 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.50 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.

Pattani (all games): 2W 1D 4L across 7 Thai League 1 outings this term — 1.00 points per game. Last five: L L L L W. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.71 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 7 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Pattani have played only a handful of Thai League 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.

When travelling in Thai League 1 this season, Pattani have posted 1W 0D 2L from 3 away outings — 1.00 PPG. Away from home they average 1.67 goals scored and 2.33 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 100% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.

The points-per-game gap of 0.90 in Ratchaburi's favour (1.90 vs 1.00) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.

The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (using home/away splits) — Ratchaburi register both teams scoring in 70% of relevant games, Pattani in 100%. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.

Trading

Ratchaburi half-time and goal-timing data (7 games, 3 at home): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures; they lead at the break 71% of the time; when winning at HT they fail to see it out 29% of the time; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 71% of games.

Pattani half-time and goal-timing data (7 games, 3 at away): they score before half-time in 86% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 71% of games; they fail to score in 43% of games.

From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Ratchaburi 71% and Pattani 57% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Ratchaburi 71% | Pattani 71%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Ratchaburi 2.62 xG and Pattani 1.16 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Ratchaburi attack 1.385 / defence 0.869 | Pattani attack 0.920 / defence 1.308. League average goals — home 1.445 / away 1.456. Ratchaburi carry an above-average attack strength of 1.385 — their λ of 2.62 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Pattani bring a strong defensive rating of 1.308 — this is suppressing Ratchaburi's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 37 Ratchaburi games / 7 Pattani games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Ratchaburi 68% | Draw 18% | Pattani 14%. Fair-value odds: Ratchaburi 1.47 | Draw 5.56 | Pattani 7.14. The model has a clear lean to Ratchaburi (68%) — a 54pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 73% | BTTS probability 64% | Total xG 3.78. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 73% — a total xG of 3.78 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 64% reflects that both xG figures (2.62 / 1.16) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.

Final Verdict

Poisson rates Ratchaburi as the most likely outcome at 68% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 18% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.

On the goals line, Poisson's 3.78 combined xG gives a 73% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.8 goals per game.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 64%. Form rates corroborate: Ratchaburi 70% | Pattani 100% BTTS from recent games.

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