Ratchaburi 3-2 Nong Bua Pitchaya – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Ratchaburi at 42%, yet in-form Nong Bua Pitchaya provide a compelling counter-argument — this Ratchaburi vs Nong Bua Pitchaya fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Ratchaburi and Nong Bua Pitchaya meet at Mitr Phol Stadium in Thai League 1, Regular Season - 14. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 21 November 2021 at 11:30 UTC.
Current Form
Ratchaburi's overall Thai League 1 record this term: 3W 2D 5L from 10 games (1.10 PPG). Last five: L L W L W. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Ratchaburi, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Mitr Phol Stadium, Ratchaburi have gone 3W 0D 2L this season (5 games, 1.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 2 home clean sheets from 5 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.80 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.10 — Ratchaburi are significantly better at Mitr Phol Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Nong Bua Pitchaya have collected 1.80 PPG across 10 Thai League 1 outings this season: 5W 3D 2L. Last five: D W D W W. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 0.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Nong Bua Pitchaya, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Nong Bua Pitchaya have gone 0W 3D 2L from 5 away fixtures this term (0.60 PPG). Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 0.60 is notably below their overall 1.80 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Nong Bua Pitchaya arrive in superior form — a 0.70 PPG advantage (1.80 vs 1.10) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Ratchaburi have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, Nong Bua Pitchaya in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
Trading Data
Ratchaburi goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (13 games, 5 at home): they score before half-time in 40% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 71% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (home games).
Nong Bua Pitchaya goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (13 games, 5 at away): they score before half-time in 40% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 20% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Ratchaburi 54% versus Nong Bua Pitchaya 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Ratchaburi 46% | Nong Bua Pitchaya 38%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Ratchaburi 1.22 xG and Nong Bua Pitchaya 0.95 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Ratchaburi attack 1.169 / defence 1.213 | Nong Bua Pitchaya attack 0.686 / defence 1.018. League average goals — home 1.027 / away 1.136. Data: 13 Ratchaburi games / 13 Nong Bua Pitchaya games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Ratchaburi 42% | Draw 29% | Nong Bua Pitchaya 28%. Fair-value odds: Ratchaburi 2.38 | Draw 3.45 | Nong Bua Pitchaya 3.57. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 37% | BTTS probability 43% | Total xG 2.17. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 63% — total xG of 2.17 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 43% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Ratchaburi as the most likely outcome at 42% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Nong Bua Pitchaya (1.80 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Ratchaburi if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.17 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 37% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 43% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. This conflicts with form data: Ratchaburi 60% | Nong Bua Pitchaya 60% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Ratchaburi vs Nong Bua Pitchaya | Competition: Thai League 1, Regular Season - 14 | Venue: Mitr Phol Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 21 Nov 2021, 11:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Ratchaburi 42% | Draw 29% | Nong Bua Pitchaya 28% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 37% | BTTS 43% | xG Ratchaburi 1.22 / Nong Bua Pitchaya 0.95 • Poisson strength factors: Ratchaburi attack 1.169 / def 1.213 | Nong Bua Pitchaya attack 0.686 / def 1.018 | league avg home 1.027 / away 1.136 • Poisson stance: Ratchaburi (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.22
Ratchaburi xG
Expected Goals
0.95
Nong Bua Pitchaya xG
43%
BTTS
64%
Over 1.5
37%
Over 2.5
17%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Ratchaburi vs Nong Bua Pitchaya kick off?
Ratchaburi vs Nong Bua Pitchaya kicked off at 11:30 on Sunday 21 November 2021 at Mitr Phol Stadium.
What was the final score in Ratchaburi vs Nong Bua Pitchaya?
Ratchaburi 3 - 2 Nong Bua Pitchaya.
Where is Ratchaburi vs Nong Bua Pitchaya being played?
The match is being played at Mitr Phol Stadium.
What competition is Ratchaburi vs Nong Bua Pitchaya part of?
Ratchaburi vs Nong Bua Pitchaya is a Regular Season - 14 fixture in the Thai League 1 (Thailand).
Who is favourite to win Ratchaburi vs Nong Bua Pitchaya?
Our statistical model gives Ratchaburi a 42% chance of winning, Nong Bua Pitchaya a 28% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Ratchaburi the favourite.
Will both teams score in Ratchaburi vs Nong Bua Pitchaya?
Our model estimates a 43% probability that both Ratchaburi and Nong Bua Pitchaya will score (BTTS).
Will Ratchaburi vs Nong Bua Pitchaya have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 37%.
What is the head-to-head record between Ratchaburi and Nong Bua Pitchaya?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Ratchaburi and Nong Bua Pitchaya in?
Ratchaburi (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-L-W-L-W. Nong Bua Pitchaya (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 0.80 | L5 D-W-D-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Ratchaburi's attack at 1.17x the league average against Nong Bua Pitchaya's defence at 1.02x — combine the two and it projects 1.22 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Nong Bua Pitchaya's attack (0.69x) against Ratchaburi's defence (1.21x) — and the away total comes out at 0.95.
These ratings are built from 13/13 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.9% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (13.1%), 1-0 (12.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 40% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Ratchaburi Win
42%
2.35
29%
3.45
28%
3.51
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.0%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.2%
Draw
0 – 0
11.4%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.22
Ratchaburi xG
Total xG
2.17
0.95
Nong Bua Pitchaya xG
2.35
42%
Home win
3.45
29%
Draw
3.51
28%
Away win
Goals Markets
64%
Over 1.5
1.56
36%
Under 1.5
2.78
37%
Over 2.5
2.70
63%
Under 2.5
1.59
17%
Over 3.5
5.88
83%
Under 3.5
1.20
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
43%
BTTS Yes
2.32
57%
BTTS No
1.76
Clean Sheet
39%
2.58
29%
3.40
Win to Nil
16%
6.06
8%
11.92
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.4 | 10.8 | 5.1 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 14.0 | 13.2 | 6.3 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.5 | 8.1 | 3.8 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.5 | 3.3 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Ratchaburi vs Nong Bua Pitchaya?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.9%.
How many goals are Ratchaburi and Nong Bua Pitchaya expected to score?
The model projects 1.22 expected goals for Ratchaburi and 0.95 for Nong Bua Pitchaya, a combined total of 2.17.
How confident is the prediction model for Ratchaburi vs Nong Bua Pitchaya?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Ratchaburi come into this having played 13 games, going 4W 3D 6L for 1.15 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-W-L-W. The sample for Ratchaburi is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Nong Bua Pitchaya sit at 1.62 PPG from 13 outings (6W 3D 4L), a run that reads D-W-D-W-W across their last five. The sample for Nong Bua Pitchaya is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Nong Bua Pitchaya carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.47 PPG clear of Ratchaburi — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
How They Fare by Venue
Ratchaburi's home form reads 3W 0D 2L across 5 games on their own ground, a 1.80 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.15 PPG overall — Ratchaburi are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Nong Bua Pitchaya have taken 0.60 points per game from 5 outings (0W 3D 2L). That's a step down from their 1.62 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Nong Bua Pitchaya's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Ratchaburi come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Ratchaburi are averaging 1.23 goals scored and 1.23 conceded per game recently; Nong Bua Pitchaya are on 1.23 scored and 0.92 conceded.
Last 13 Results — Thai League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Ratchaburi
Blended
Nong Bua Pitchaya
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Ratchaburi and Nong Bua Pitchaya in coming into this match?
Ratchaburi have gone 4W 3D 6L in their last 13 games (1.15 PPG), while Nong Bua Pitchaya have gone 6W 3D 4L in their last 13 (1.62 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Ratchaburi at home or Nong Bua Pitchaya away?
Ratchaburi's home record (1.80 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Ratchaburi at home: 1.80 PPG; Nong Bua Pitchaya away: 0.60 PPG.
Have Ratchaburi or Nong Bua Pitchaya been keeping clean sheets recently?
Ratchaburi have kept a clean sheet in 31% of their recent games, Nong Bua Pitchaya in 31%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 6 times that we have on record, stretching back to November 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Thai League 1. It has been a while since the last meeting — 9 March 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Ratchaburi won 4-0 on 9 Mar 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Ratchaburi have gone 3W 0D 0L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Nong Bua Pitchaya — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
4
Ratchaburi
1
Draws
1
Nong Bua Pitchaya
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Ratchaburi and Nong Bua Pitchaya?
From 6 meetings on record, Ratchaburi have won 4, Nong Bua Pitchaya have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Ratchaburi and Nong Bua Pitchaya last play each other?
They last met on 9 March 2025, when Ratchaburi 4-0 Nong Bua Pitchaya.
Who has won more matches between Ratchaburi and Nong Bua Pitchaya?
Ratchaburi have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Ratchaburi see a goal before the break in 40% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time.
Nong Bua Pitchaya see a goal before the break in 40% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Ratchaburi 60%, Nong Bua Pitchaya 60% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 60% (Ratchaburi) and 20% (Nong Bua Pitchaya).
On the defensive side: Ratchaburi keep a clean sheet in 40% of their matches; Nong Bua Pitchaya in 40%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Ratchaburi home games / Nong Bua Pitchaya away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Ratchaburi play Nong Bua Pitchaya?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 60% of Ratchaburi's games and 60% of Nong Bua Pitchaya's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Ratchaburi vs Nong Bua Pitchaya usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 60% of Ratchaburi's recent games and 20% of Nong Bua Pitchaya's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Prediction vindicated as Ratchaburi edge out Nong Bua Pitchaya 3-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Ratchaburi beat Nong Bua Pitchaya 3-2 at Mitr Phol Stadium, Regular Season - 14, in the Thai League 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Ratchaburi 1.22 xG and Nong Bua Pitchaya 0.95 xG, a combined 2.17. The scoreboard read 3-2 for 5 actual goals. Ratchaburi beat their projection by 1.8 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Nong Bua Pitchaya outscored their 0.95 projection by 1.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Ratchaburi attack 1.17 / defence 1.21 against Nong Bua Pitchaya attack 0.69 / defence 1.02, drawn from 13/13 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Ratchaburi 42% | Draw 29% | Nong Bua Pitchaya 28%, with Ratchaburi to win its most likely call at 42%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 37%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 64% and landed. Over 3.5 was 17% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 42% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Ratchaburi 46%, Nong Bua Pitchaya 38%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Ratchaburi's trading profile (13 games, 5 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.
Nong Bua Pitchaya's trading profile (13 games, 5 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Nong Bua Pitchaya arrived the stronger side — 1.62 PPG against 1.15. Form was overturned, with Ratchaburi winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Ratchaburi (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.80 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 1.20 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Nong Bua Pitchaya (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.60 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.20 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.