Ratchaburi 1-0 Lampang FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Ratchaburi at 63% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Ratchaburi vs Lampang FC encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Thai League 1 encounter, Regular Season - 7 sees Lampang FC travel to Dragon Solar Park to take on Ratchaburi. The game is scheduled for Sunday 2 October 2022, 11:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Ratchaburi stand at 6W 3D 1L from 10 Thai League 1 matches — 2.10 PPG. Last five: W W W W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 0.80 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Ratchaburi have played only a handful of Thai League 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
In front of their own supporters this season, Ratchaburi have posted 5W 4D 1L at Dragon Solar Park — 1.90 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Lampang FC — All Games: 1W 1D 4L from 6 Thai League 1 fixtures this season — 0.67 PPG. Last five: D L L L L. Their scoring rate of 0.67 per game is modest, conceding 2.33 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.33 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 6 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in just 33% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. Lampang FC have played only a handful of Thai League 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Lampang FC's form when playing away from home: 0W 1D 2L across 3 road games this term (0.33 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 2.67 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 67% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Ratchaburi are in the better shape of the two on current Thai League 1 data — 1.43 PPG ahead (2.10 vs 0.67). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
In-Play Data
Ratchaburi trading profile (6 games, 3 at home): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 17% of games; they keep a clean sheet 67% of the time.
Lampang FC trading profile (6 games, 3 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games; Over 3.5 in 50%; they fail to score in 50% of games.
The in-play data supports BTTS No — both teams show low combined scoring rates (Ratchaburi 33% | Lampang FC 33%). Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Ratchaburi 17% | Lampang FC 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Ratchaburi 1.93 xG and Lampang FC 0.85 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Ratchaburi attack 0.983 / defence 0.862 | Lampang FC attack 0.841 / defence 1.500. League average goals — home 1.310 / away 1.175. Lampang FC bring a strong defensive rating of 1.500 — this is suppressing Ratchaburi's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 35 Ratchaburi games / 6 Lampang FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Ratchaburi 63% | Draw 21% | Lampang FC 16%. Fair-value odds: Ratchaburi 1.59 | Draw 4.76 | Lampang FC 6.25. The model has a clear lean to Ratchaburi (63%) — a 47pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 53% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 2.78. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 53%/47% — the total xG of 2.78 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Ratchaburi as the most likely outcome at 63% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 21% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.78 combined xG gives a 53% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 49% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Ratchaburi 50% | Lampang FC 67%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Ratchaburi vs Lampang FC | Competition: Thai League 1, Regular Season - 7 | Venue: Dragon Solar Park • Kick-off: Sunday 2 Oct 2022, 11:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Ratchaburi 63% | Draw 21% | Lampang FC 16% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 53% | BTTS 49% | xG Ratchaburi 1.93 / Lampang FC 0.85 • Poisson strength factors: Ratchaburi attack 0.983 / def 0.862 | Lampang FC attack 0.841 / def 1.500 | league avg home 1.310 / away 1.175 • Poisson stance: Ratchaburi (63%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.93
Ratchaburi xG
Expected Goals
0.85
Lampang FC xG
49%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
53%
Over 2.5
30%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Ratchaburi vs Lampang FC kick off?
Ratchaburi vs Lampang FC kicked off at 11:30 on Sunday 2 October 2022 at Dragon Solar Park.
What was the final score in Ratchaburi vs Lampang FC?
Ratchaburi 1 - 0 Lampang FC.
Where is Ratchaburi vs Lampang FC being played?
The match is being played at Dragon Solar Park.
What competition is Ratchaburi vs Lampang FC part of?
Ratchaburi vs Lampang FC is a Regular Season - 7 fixture in the Thai League 1 (Thailand).
Who is favourite to win Ratchaburi vs Lampang FC?
Our statistical model gives Ratchaburi a 63% chance of winning, Lampang FC a 16% chance, and a 21% chance of a draw — making Ratchaburi the favourite.
Will both teams score in Ratchaburi vs Lampang FC?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both Ratchaburi and Lampang FC will score (BTTS).
Will Ratchaburi vs Lampang FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 53%.
What is the head-to-head record between Ratchaburi and Lampang FC?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Ratchaburi and Lampang FC in?
Ratchaburi (all comps): 6W-3D-1L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-W-W-W-D. Lampang FC (all comps): 1W-1D-4L in 6 | 0.67 PPG | GF 0.67 / GA 2.33 | L5 D-L-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Ratchaburi's attack rating (0.98) and Lampang FC's defence rating (1.50), the model arrives at 1.93 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Lampang FC's attack versus Ratchaburi's defence, projects 0.85 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 35/6 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 2-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 11.5%. Close behind: 1-1 (11.5%), 1-0 (10.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Ratchaburi Win
63%
1.59
21%
4.68
16%
6.30
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
11.9%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
11.5%
Home win
1 – 1
10.2%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.93
Ratchaburi xG
Total xG
2.78
0.85
Lampang FC xG
1.59
63%
Home win
4.68
21%
Draw
6.30
16%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
53%
Over 2.5
1.89
47%
Under 2.5
2.13
30%
Over 3.5
3.33
70%
Under 3.5
1.43
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.04
51%
BTTS No
1.96
Clean Sheet
43%
2.34
14%
6.90
Win to Nil
27%
3.74
2%
43.47
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.2 | 5.3 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 11.9 | 10.2 | 4.3 | 1.2 | 0.3 | – |
| 2 | 11.5 | 9.8 | 4.2 | 1.2 | 0.3 | – |
| 3 | 7.4 | 6.3 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 3.6 | 3.1 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.4 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Ratchaburi vs Lampang FC?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.5%.
How many goals are Ratchaburi and Lampang FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.93 expected goals for Ratchaburi and 0.85 for Lampang FC, a combined total of 2.78.
How confident is the prediction model for Ratchaburi vs Lampang FC?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 63%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Ratchaburi come into this having played 6 games, going 5W 1D 0L for 2.67 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-W-W-D. It's still early in the season for Ratchaburi, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Lampang FC sit at 0.67 PPG from 6 outings (1W 1D 4L), a run that reads D-L-L-L-L across their last five. It's still early in the season for Lampang FC, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Ratchaburi carry the stronger recent form of the two, 2.00 PPG clear of Lampang FC — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
Ratchaburi's home form reads 2W 1D 0L across 3 games on their own ground, a 2.33 PPG return.
Away from home, Lampang FC have taken 0.33 points per game from 3 outings (0W 1D 2L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Ratchaburi come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Ratchaburi are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 0.33 conceded per game recently; Lampang FC are on 0.67 scored and 2.33 conceded.
Defensively: Ratchaburi have kept a clean sheet in 67% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 6 Results — Thai League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Ratchaburi
Early Season
Lampang FC
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Ratchaburi and Lampang FC in coming into this match?
Ratchaburi have gone 5W 1D 0L in their last 6 games (2.67 PPG), while Lampang FC have gone 1W 1D 4L in their last 6 (0.67 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Ratchaburi at home or Lampang FC away?
Ratchaburi's home record (2.33 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Ratchaburi at home: 2.33 PPG; Lampang FC away: 0.33 PPG.
Have Ratchaburi or Lampang FC been keeping clean sheets recently?
Ratchaburi have kept a clean sheet in 67% of their recent games, Lampang FC in 17%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Ratchaburi and Lampang FC runs to 2 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Thai League 1. It has been a while since the last meeting — 25 February 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
1
Ratchaburi
0
Draws
1
Lampang FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Ratchaburi and Lampang FC?
From 2 meetings on record, Ratchaburi have won 1, Lampang FC have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Ratchaburi and Lampang FC last play each other?
They last met on 25 February 2023, when Lampang FC 1-0 Ratchaburi.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Ratchaburi tend to start slowly — only 0% of their games have a goal by half-time.
Lampang FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Ratchaburi 33%, Lampang FC 67% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 0% for Ratchaburi and 67% for Lampang FC.
On the defensive side: Ratchaburi keep a clean sheet in 67% of their matches; Lampang FC in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Ratchaburi home games / Lampang FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Ratchaburi play Lampang FC?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 33% of Ratchaburi's recent matches and 67% of Lampang FC's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Ratchaburi vs Lampang FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 0% of Ratchaburi's recent games and 67% of Lampang FC's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Ratchaburi and Lampang FC tend to score early?
Ratchaburi have had a goal before half-time in 0% of their recent matches, Lampang FC in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Ratchaburi edge out Lampang FC 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Ratchaburi beat Lampang FC 1-0 at Dragon Solar Park, Regular Season - 7, in the Thai League 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Ratchaburi 1.93 xG and Lampang FC 0.85 xG, a combined 2.78. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Ratchaburi fell 0.9 short of their projected output. Lampang FC landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Ratchaburi attack 0.98 / defence 0.86 against Lampang FC attack 0.84 / defence 1.50, drawn from 35/6 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Ratchaburi 63% | Draw 21% | Lampang FC 16%, with Ratchaburi to win its most likely call at 63%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 77% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 33% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Ratchaburi 17%, Lampang FC 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 33%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Ratchaburi's trading profile (6 games, 3 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 33% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 67% of the time, and duly kept one.
Lampang FC's trading profile (6 games, 3 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 33% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 50% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Ratchaburi arrived the stronger side — 2.67 PPG against 0.67. That form edge translated into the three points. Lampang FC (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 1 against a 2.67 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.