Ratchaburi 1-1 Buriram United – Result & Analysis

Poisson model favours Buriram United (51%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Ratchaburi face Buriram United.

✍️ Match Preview

Pre-Match Analysis

Ratchaburi and Buriram United meet at Dragon Solar Park in Thai League 1, Regular Season - 29. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 7 May 2023 at 13:00 UTC.

Form

Ratchaburi (all games): 1W 4D 5L across 10 Thai League 1 fixtures this term — 0.70 PPG. Last five: W D L D L. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.

Ratchaburi's home record at Dragon Solar Park: 2W 6D 2L from 10 Thai League 1 appearances (1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.20 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.70 — Ratchaburi are significantly better at Dragon Solar Park than their overall form suggests.

Buriram United's overall Thai League 1 record this term: 7W 1D 2L from 10 games (2.20 PPG). Last five: W L W W L. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.40 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not.

Buriram United's away record: 7W 2D 1L from 10 road trips in Thai League 1 this season (2.30 PPG). They are averaging 2.30 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home.

The travelling side arrive in better shape. Buriram United are 1.50 PPG clear of Ratchaburi in recent Thai League 1 fixtures (2.20 vs 0.70). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.

H2H History

Across the last 3 meetings, Buriram United have the stronger historical record — 3 wins to Ratchaburi's 0, with 0 draws in the mix.

The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 25 Nov 2022, ended 0–1 with Buriram United winning.

It is worth noting that Buriram United have a superior record in this fixture despite their visitor status — 3 wins from 3 meetings. Home advantage alone is not a sufficient reason to dismiss that track record.

Trading & In-Play

Ratchaburi — key trading statistics (58 games, 29 at home): they score before half-time in 55% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 34% of games (home games); they fail to score in 34% of games.

Buriram United — key trading statistics (58 games, 29 at away): they score before half-time in 66% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 61% of those occasions; they lead at the break 52% of the time; BTTS occurs in 41% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 48% of the time.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Ratchaburi 48% versus Buriram United 45%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Ratchaburi 31% | Buriram United 52%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Ratchaburi 1.01 xG and Buriram United 1.62 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Ratchaburi attack 0.745 / defence 0.915 | Buriram United attack 1.453 / defence 0.859. League average goals — home 1.581 / away 1.218. Ratchaburi's attack strength of 0.745 is below the league average — the 1.01 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Buriram United have an above-average attack strength of 1.453 — the away xG of 1.62 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 58 Ratchaburi games / 58 Buriram United games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Ratchaburi 23% | Draw 26% | Buriram United 51%. Fair-value odds: Ratchaburi 4.35 | Draw 3.85 | Buriram United 1.96. Buriram United hold a narrow Poisson edge at 51% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 49% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.63. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 49%/51% — the total xG of 2.63 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Final Verdict

Poisson rates Buriram United as the most likely outcome at 51% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Buriram United if the outright odds are short.

The Poisson model projects 2.63 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 49% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.

Poisson assigns a 51% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Ratchaburi 70% | Buriram United 50% BTTS from recent games.

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