Ratchaburi vs Buriram United – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model rates Ratchaburi at 49%, yet other data sources diverge — this Ratchaburi vs Buriram United fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Ratchaburi and Buriram United meet at Dragon Solar Park in Thai League 1, Regular Season - 8. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 8 November 2026 at 12:00 UTC.
Form
Ratchaburi (all games): 6W 2D 2L across 10 Thai League 1 fixtures this term — 2.00 PPG. Last five: W W L W W. They are averaging 2.30 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. Ratchaburi haven't played a Thai League 1 game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
Ratchaburi's home record at Dragon Solar Park: 6W 2D 2L from 10 Thai League 1 appearances (2.00 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Buriram United's overall Thai League 1 record this term: 6W 2D 2L from 10 games (2.00 PPG). Last five: W W L L D. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.50 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Buriram United haven't played a Thai League 1 game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
Buriram United's away record: 6W 2D 2L from 10 road trips in Thai League 1 this season (2.00 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 2.00 PPG for Ratchaburi against 2.00 for Buriram United. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
H2H History
Across the last 10 meetings, Buriram United have the stronger historical record — 6 wins to Ratchaburi's 1, with 3 draws in the mix.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.0 per game across 10 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 4 Apr 2026, ended 2–2 with a draw.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Buriram United have won 6 of 10 previous encounters, and at 3.0 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
Trading & In-Play
Ratchaburi — key trading statistics (30 games, 15 at home): they score before half-time in 87% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 37%.
Buriram United — key trading statistics (30 games, 15 at away): they score before half-time in 87% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 80% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 47%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Ratchaburi 57% versus Buriram United 60%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Ratchaburi 53% | Buriram United 70%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Ratchaburi 1.76 xG and Buriram United 1.19 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Ratchaburi attack 1.108 / defence 1.016 | Buriram United attack 1.144 / defence 1.003. League average goals — home 1.583 / away 1.020. Data: 30 Ratchaburi games / 30 Buriram United games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: Ratchaburi 49% | Draw 27% | Buriram United 24%. Fair-value odds: Ratchaburi 2.04 | Draw 3.70 | Buriram United 4.17. Ratchaburi hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 56% | BTTS probability 59% | Total xG 2.94. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 56% — the 2.94 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 59% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Ratchaburi as the most likely outcome at 49% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Ratchaburi if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.94 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 56% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.0 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 59% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Ratchaburi 70% | Buriram United 50% BTTS from recent games.
The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (30 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Ratchaburi vs Buriram United | Competition: Thai League 1, Regular Season - 8 | Venue: Dragon Solar Park • Kick-off: Sunday 8 Nov 2026, 12:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Ratchaburi 49% | Draw 27% | Buriram United 24% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 56% | BTTS 59% | xG Ratchaburi 1.76 / Buriram United 1.19 • Poisson strength factors: Ratchaburi attack 1.108 / def 1.016 | Buriram United attack 1.144 / def 1.003 | league avg home 1.583 / away 1.020 • Poisson stance: Ratchaburi (49%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.76
Ratchaburi xG
Expected Goals
1.19
Buriram United xG
59%
BTTS
81%
Over 1.5
56%
Over 2.5
34%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Ratchaburi vs Buriram United kick off?
Ratchaburi vs Buriram United is scheduled to kick off at 12:00 on Sunday 8 November 2026 at Dragon Solar Park.
Where is Ratchaburi vs Buriram United being played?
The match is being played at Dragon Solar Park.
What competition is Ratchaburi vs Buriram United part of?
Ratchaburi vs Buriram United is a Regular Season - 8 fixture in the Thai League 1 (Thailand).
Who is favourite to win Ratchaburi vs Buriram United?
Our statistical model gives Ratchaburi a 49% chance of winning, Buriram United a 24% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Ratchaburi the favourite.
Will both teams score in Ratchaburi vs Buriram United?
Our model estimates a 59% probability that both Ratchaburi and Buriram United will score (BTTS).
Will Ratchaburi vs Buriram United have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 56%.
What is the head-to-head record between Ratchaburi and Buriram United?
Record (10 meetings): Ratchaburi 1W | Draws 3 | Buriram United 6W.
What form are Ratchaburi and Buriram United in?
No current-season fixtures available — form shown from previous season data. Ratchaburi (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 2.30 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-W-L-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Ratchaburi's attacking strength (1.11x league average) is weighed against Buriram United's defensive record (1.00x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.76. Flip it around — Buriram United's attack (1.14x) against Ratchaburi's defence (1.02x) — and the away total comes out at 1.19.
These ratings are built from 30/30 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.4%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.7%), 2-0 (8.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Ratchaburi Win
49%
2.04
27%
3.71
24%
4.17
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.0%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.7%
Home win
1 – 0
9.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.76
Ratchaburi xG
Total xG
2.94
1.19
Buriram United xG
2.04
49%
Home win
3.71
27%
Draw
4.17
24%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
56%
Over 2.5
1.79
44%
Under 2.5
2.27
34%
Over 3.5
2.94
66%
Under 3.5
1.52
18%
Over 4.5
5.56
82%
Under 4.5
1.22
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
59%
BTTS Yes
1.69
41%
BTTS No
2.45
Clean Sheet
31%
3.27
17%
5.81
Win to Nil
15%
6.68
4%
24.21
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.3 | 6.2 | 3.7 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.3 | 11.0 | 6.5 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.1 | 9.7 | 5.7 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.8 | 5.7 | 3.4 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.1 | 2.5 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Ratchaburi vs Buriram United?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.4%.
How many goals are Ratchaburi and Buriram United expected to score?
The model projects 1.76 expected goals for Ratchaburi and 1.19 for Buriram United, a combined total of 2.94.
How confident is the prediction model for Ratchaburi vs Buriram United?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 49%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Ratchaburi come into this having played 30 games, going 18W 5D 7L for 1.97 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-L-W-W. Ratchaburi haven't played enough this season for a current-season-only sample, so this includes results carried over from last season.
On the other side, Buriram United sit at 2.33 PPG from 30 outings (22W 4D 4L), a run that reads W-W-L-L-D across their last five. Buriram United haven't played enough this season for a current-season-only sample, so this includes results carried over from last season.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.97 PPG for Ratchaburi against 2.33 for Buriram United. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
Ratchaburi's home form reads 8W 4D 3L across 15 games on their own ground, a 1.87 PPG return.
Away from home, Buriram United have taken 2.13 points per game from 15 outings (10W 2D 3L).
Attack vs Defence
Ratchaburi are averaging 1.83 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game recently; Buriram United are on 2.53 scored and 1.03 conceded. Buriram United's attacking output running into Ratchaburi's solid defensive record is the key goals-market tension in this fixture.
On BTTS specifically: Buriram United in 60%.
Last 30 Results — Thai League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Ratchaburi
Pre-Season
Buriram United
Pre-Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Ratchaburi and Buriram United in coming into this match?
Ratchaburi have gone 18W 5D 7L in their last 30 games (1.97 PPG), while Buriram United have gone 22W 4D 4L in their last 30 (2.33 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Ratchaburi at home or Buriram United away?
Buriram United's away record (2.13 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Ratchaburi at home: 1.87 PPG; Buriram United away: 2.13 PPG.
Have Ratchaburi or Buriram United been keeping clean sheets recently?
Ratchaburi have kept a clean sheet in 30% of their recent games, Buriram United in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to October 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Thai League 1. They last met on 4 April 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Buriram United won 6-0 on 8 Dec 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Ratchaburi have gone 1W 2D 2L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Buriram United — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
1
Ratchaburi
3
Draws
6
Buriram United
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Ratchaburi and Buriram United?
From 10 meetings on record, Ratchaburi have won 1, Buriram United have won 6, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Ratchaburi and Buriram United last play each other?
They last met on 4 April 2026, when Ratchaburi 2-2 Buriram United.
Who has won more matches between Ratchaburi and Buriram United?
Buriram United have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Ratchaburi are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 87% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 47% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
Buriram United are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 87% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Ratchaburi 53%, Buriram United 67% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 47% for Ratchaburi and 80% for Buriram United. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 33% and 53% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Ratchaburi keep a clean sheet in 40% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Ratchaburi home games / Buriram United away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Ratchaburi play Buriram United?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 53% of Ratchaburi's games and 67% of Buriram United's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Ratchaburi vs Buriram United usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 47% of Ratchaburi's matches and 80% of Buriram United's.
Do Ratchaburi and Buriram United tend to score early?
Ratchaburi have had a goal before half-time in 87% of their recent matches, Buriram United in 87% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.