Ratchaburi 2-2 Buriram United – Result & Analysis

Poisson model favours Buriram United (46%) — recent form and the head-to-head data both point the same way as Ratchaburi face Buriram United.

✍️ Match Preview

Pre-Match Analysis

Ratchaburi and Buriram United meet at Dragon Solar Park in Thai League 1 (matchday 27). This fixture gets under way on Saturday 4 April 2026 at 14:00 UK time.

Form

Ratchaburi (all games): 5W 2D 3L across their last 10 — 1.70 PPG. Last five: W D W L D. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 1.40 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.

Ratchaburi's home record over their last 10 home games: 6W 2D 2L (2.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from their last 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at home.

Buriram United's record over their last 10 games: 8W 1D 1L (2.50 PPG). Last five: W W W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 3.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Defensively, 0.60 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not.

Buriram United's away record over their last 10 away games: 8W 1D 1L (2.50 PPG). They are averaging 2.40 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 4 clean sheets from their last 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.

The travelling side arrive in better shape. Buriram United are 0.80 PPG clear of Ratchaburi over their recent games (2.50 vs 1.70). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.

H2H History

The head-to-head sample leans to Buriram United, who have 5 wins from 8 H2H matches compared to 1 for the hosts, with 2 draws.

These two sides have produced goals at a healthy rate, averaging 2.9 per game across the 8 H2H matches we hold. That scoring profile supports the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent of those, on 30 Nov 2025, ended Ratchaburi 0–2 Buriram United — a Buriram United win.

The H2H data backs the away side. Buriram United have won 5 of 8 H2H matches, and at 2.9 goals per game the goals market also points upward — the away win and Over 2.5 combination has a head-to-head case.

Trading & In-Play

Ratchaburi — key trading statistics (last 53 games, 25 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 92% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; they lead at the break 49% of the time; of the 26 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 27%; of the 11 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 27%; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 43%.

Buriram United — key trading statistics (last 53 games, 25 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 76% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; they lead at the break 51% of the time; of the 9 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 44%; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 72% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 45%; they keep a clean sheet 45% of the time.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Ratchaburi 58% versus Buriram United 51%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Ratchaburi 57% | Buriram United 70%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: Ratchaburi surrender their half-time lead 27% of the time, while Buriram United have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 44% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle.

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Ratchaburi 1.13 xG and Buriram United 1.63 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Ratchaburi attack 1.025 / defence 0.977 | Buriram United attack 1.482 / defence 0.777. League average goals — home 1.420 / away 1.124. Buriram United bring a tight defence (rating 0.777, below 1 = concedes less than average) — this is pulling Ratchaburi's projected output down. Buriram United have an above-average attack rating of 1.482, which lifts their away xG to 1.63. Data: built from Ratchaburi's last 53 games and Buriram United's last 54.

Result probabilities: Ratchaburi 24% | Draw 30% | Buriram United 46%. Fair-value odds: Ratchaburi 4.19 | Draw 3.35 | Buriram United 2.16. Buriram United hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (30%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS Yes probability 57% | Total xG 2.76. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.76 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 57% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Final Verdict

Poisson rates Buriram United as the most likely outcome at 46% — moderate model lean. Recent form and the head-to-head data both align with the Poisson read — multi-source corroboration increases confidence in this selection. Draw probability of 30% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Buriram United if the outright odds are short.

The Poisson model projects 2.76 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 52% — strong conviction, supported by recent form (Ratchaburi's last 10 home games and Buriram United's last 10 away games) averaging 2.9 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 2.9 goals per game across 8 H2H matches.

Poisson assigns a 57% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Ratchaburi 50% (last 10 home games) | Buriram United 60% (last 10 away games).

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