Ratchaburi 1-1 BG Pathum United – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Ratchaburi at 43%, yet in-form BG Pathum United provide a compelling counter-argument — this Ratchaburi vs BG Pathum United fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Ratchaburi host BG Pathum United at Mitr Phol Stadium in Thai League 1, Regular Season - 16. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 8 January 2022 at 11:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Ratchaburi — All Games: 4W 1D 5L from 10 Thai League 1 outings this season, averaging 1.30 points per game. Last five: W L W W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.60 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Ratchaburi, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Ratchaburi at Mitr Phol Stadium this season: 4W 0D 2L from 6 home games — 2.00 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. BTTS has landed in 67% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.30 — Ratchaburi are significantly better at Mitr Phol Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Across all Thai League 1 games this season, BG Pathum United have recorded 6W 2D 2L from 10 outings — 2.00 PPG. Last five: D W L L D. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 0.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.60 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for BG Pathum United, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, BG Pathum United have gone 2W 3D 2L from 7 away fixtures this term (1.29 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 0.86 conceded per game. 3 clean sheets from 7 away games (43%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Their away PPG of 1.29 is notably below their overall 2.00 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour BG Pathum United — 0.70 PPG ahead of the hosts (2.00 vs 1.30). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 1 previous meetings, Ratchaburi have won 0, BG Pathum United 1, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 10 Sep 2021, ended 0–2 with BG Pathum United winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Ratchaburi in-play and half-time data (15 games, 6 at home): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 71% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (home games).
BG Pathum United in-play and half-time data (15 games, 6 at away): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; they lead at the break 47% of the time; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 47% of the time; they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Ratchaburi 53% versus BG Pathum United 33%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Ratchaburi 53% | BG Pathum United 33%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Ratchaburi 1.37 xG and BG Pathum United 1.11 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Ratchaburi attack 1.233 / defence 1.299 | BG Pathum United attack 0.795 / defence 1.060. League average goals — home 1.050 / away 1.075. Data: 15 Ratchaburi games / 15 BG Pathum United games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Ratchaburi 43% | Draw 27% | BG Pathum United 30%. Fair-value odds: Ratchaburi 2.33 | Draw 3.70 | BG Pathum United 3.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.48. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.48 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Ratchaburi are the pick at 43% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form BG Pathum United (2.00 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Ratchaburi offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.48 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 45% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 50%. Form rates are neutral: Ratchaburi 67% | BG Pathum United 43%.
The outsider holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Ratchaburi vs BG Pathum United | Competition: Thai League 1, Regular Season - 16 | Venue: Mitr Phol Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 8 Jan 2022, 11:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Ratchaburi 43% | Draw 27% | BG Pathum United 30% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 45% | BTTS 50% | xG Ratchaburi 1.37 / BG Pathum United 1.11 • Poisson strength factors: Ratchaburi attack 1.233 / def 1.299 | BG Pathum United attack 0.795 / def 1.060 | league avg home 1.050 / away 1.075 • Poisson stance: Ratchaburi (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.37
Ratchaburi xG
Expected Goals
1.11
BG Pathum United xG
50%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
45%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Ratchaburi vs BG Pathum United kick off?
Ratchaburi vs BG Pathum United kicked off at 11:00 on Saturday 8 January 2022 at Mitr Phol Stadium.
What was the final score in Ratchaburi vs BG Pathum United?
Ratchaburi 1 - 1 BG Pathum United.
Where is Ratchaburi vs BG Pathum United being played?
The match is being played at Mitr Phol Stadium.
What competition is Ratchaburi vs BG Pathum United part of?
Ratchaburi vs BG Pathum United is a Regular Season - 16 fixture in the Thai League 1 (Thailand).
Who is favourite to win Ratchaburi vs BG Pathum United?
Our statistical model gives Ratchaburi a 43% chance of winning, BG Pathum United a 30% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Ratchaburi the favourite.
Will both teams score in Ratchaburi vs BG Pathum United?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Ratchaburi and BG Pathum United will score (BTTS).
Will Ratchaburi vs BG Pathum United have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 45%.
What is the head-to-head record between Ratchaburi and BG Pathum United?
Record (1 meetings): Ratchaburi 0W | Draws 0 | BG Pathum United 1W.
What form are Ratchaburi and BG Pathum United in?
Ratchaburi (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.60 | L5 W-L-W-W-L. BG Pathum United (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 0.60 | L5 D-W-L-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Ratchaburi's attacking strength (1.23x league average) is weighed against BG Pathum United's defensive record (1.06x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.37. The same calculation in reverse, BG Pathum United's attack versus Ratchaburi's defence, projects 1.11 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 15/15 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.4%. Close behind: 0-0 (10.0%), 1-0 (9.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Ratchaburi Win
43%
2.33
27%
3.73
30%
3.30
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.7%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.5%
Home win
0 – 1
9.3%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.37
Ratchaburi xG
Total xG
2.48
1.11
BG Pathum United xG
2.33
43%
Home win
3.73
27%
Draw
3.30
30%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
45%
Over 2.5
2.22
55%
Under 2.5
1.82
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
2.00
50%
BTTS No
2.00
Clean Sheet
33%
3.03
25%
3.94
Win to Nil
14%
7.07
8%
13.01
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.4 | 9.3 | 5.1 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.5 | 12.7 | 7.1 | 2.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.9 | 8.7 | 4.8 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.6 | 4.0 | 2.2 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.4 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Ratchaburi vs BG Pathum United?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.4%.
How many goals are Ratchaburi and BG Pathum United expected to score?
The model projects 1.37 expected goals for Ratchaburi and 1.11 for BG Pathum United, a combined total of 2.48.
How confident is the prediction model for Ratchaburi vs BG Pathum United?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 15 outings, Ratchaburi have picked up 1.20 PPG on a 5W 3D 7L record — W-L-W-W-L across the most recent five. The sample for Ratchaburi is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
BG Pathum United's form line: 8W 3D 4L from 15 games, 1.80 PPG, last five D-W-L-L-D. The sample for BG Pathum United is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, BG Pathum United are the form team by 0.60 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Ratchaburi.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Ratchaburi have posted 2.00 PPG from 6 outings (4W 0D 2L). That's noticeably better than their 1.20 PPG overall — Ratchaburi are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, BG Pathum United have gone 2W 2D 2L from 6 away games — 1.33 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.80 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of BG Pathum United's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Ratchaburi come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Ratchaburi are averaging 1.27 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game recently; BG Pathum United are on 1.07 scored and 0.87 conceded.
Defensively: BG Pathum United in 47% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 15 Results — Thai League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Ratchaburi
Blended
BG Pathum United
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Ratchaburi and BG Pathum United in coming into this match?
Ratchaburi have gone 5W 3D 7L in their last 15 games (1.20 PPG), while BG Pathum United have gone 8W 3D 4L in their last 15 (1.80 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Ratchaburi at home or BG Pathum United away?
Ratchaburi's home record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Ratchaburi at home: 2.00 PPG; BG Pathum United away: 1.33 PPG.
Have Ratchaburi or BG Pathum United been keeping clean sheets recently?
Ratchaburi have kept a clean sheet in 27% of their recent games, BG Pathum United in 47%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Ratchaburi and BG Pathum United runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Thai League 1. They last met on 22 March 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 20 Nov 2022, when Ratchaburi won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Ratchaburi's record when hosting BG Pathum United specifically: 2W 2D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Ratchaburi
3
Draws
4
BG Pathum United
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Ratchaburi and BG Pathum United?
From 10 meetings on record, Ratchaburi have won 3, BG Pathum United have won 4, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Ratchaburi and BG Pathum United last play each other?
They last met on 22 March 2026, when BG Pathum United 2-2 Ratchaburi.
Who has won more matches between Ratchaburi and BG Pathum United?
BG Pathum United have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Ratchaburi see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
BG Pathum United see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Ratchaburi 67%, BG Pathum United 33% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 67% (Ratchaburi) and 33% (BG Pathum United).
On the defensive side: Ratchaburi keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; BG Pathum United in 50%; BG Pathum United in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Ratchaburi home games / BG Pathum United away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Ratchaburi play BG Pathum United?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 67% of Ratchaburi's recent matches and 33% of BG Pathum United's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Ratchaburi vs BG Pathum United usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 67% of Ratchaburi's recent games and 33% of BG Pathum United's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Ratchaburi and BG Pathum United share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Mitr Phol Stadium, Regular Season - 16, as Ratchaburi and BG Pathum United drew 1-1 in the Thai League 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Ratchaburi 1.37 xG and BG Pathum United 1.11 xG, a combined 2.48. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Ratchaburi attack 1.23 / defence 1.30 against BG Pathum United attack 0.80 / defence 1.06, drawn from 15/15 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Ratchaburi 43% | Draw 27% | BG Pathum United 30%, with Ratchaburi to win its most likely call at 43%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 71% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 43% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Ratchaburi 53%, BG Pathum United 33%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 43%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Ratchaburi's trading profile (15 games, 6 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did.
BG Pathum United's trading profile (15 games, 6 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 33% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 47% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, BG Pathum United arrived the stronger side — 1.80 PPG against 1.20. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Ratchaburi (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.00 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.