Prachuap 1-5 Ratchaburi – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Ratchaburi at 45% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Prachuap vs Ratchaburi encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Thai League 1 encounter, Regular Season - 13 sees Ratchaburi travel to Sam Ao Stadium to take on Prachuap. The game is scheduled for Friday 11 November 2022, 12:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Prachuap — All Games: 2W 2D 6L from 10 Thai League 1 outings this season, averaging 0.80 points per game. Last five: L W L D L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 2.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.50 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Prachuap, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Prachuap's home record at Sam Ao Stadium: 5W 2D 3L from 10 Thai League 1 appearances (1.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.70 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.80 — Prachuap are significantly better at Sam Ao Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Across all Thai League 1 games this season, Ratchaburi have recorded 4W 5D 1L from 10 outings — 1.70 PPG. Last five: D W D D D. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 0.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.60 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Ratchaburi, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Ratchaburi's form when playing away from home: 4W 2D 4L across 10 road games this term (1.40 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Ratchaburi are 0.90 PPG ahead (1.70 vs 0.80), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for Prachuap, 1 for Ratchaburi and 0 shared spoils from 2 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The last 2 meetings have been tight affairs, averaging just 1.5 goals per game. That low-scoring pattern is a meaningful historical input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent clash, on 19 Mar 2022, ended 1–0 with Prachuap winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.5 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading Patterns
Prachuap in-play and half-time data (42 games, 20 at home): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 55% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 45% of games (home games).
Ratchaburi in-play and half-time data (42 games, 20 at away): they score before half-time in 55% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 35% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 25% of games (away games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Prachuap 57% versus Ratchaburi 48%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Prachuap 57% | Ratchaburi 31%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Prachuap 0.95 xG and Ratchaburi 1.34 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Prachuap attack 1.005 / defence 1.206 | Ratchaburi attack 0.931 / defence 0.738. League average goals — home 1.284 / away 1.196. Ratchaburi's defence strength of 0.738 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 42 Prachuap games / 42 Ratchaburi games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Prachuap 26% | Draw 29% | Ratchaburi 45%. Fair-value odds: Prachuap 3.85 | Draw 3.45 | Ratchaburi 2.22. Ratchaburi hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (29%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 40% | BTTS probability 46% | Total xG 2.29. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 60% — total xG of 2.29 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 46% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Ratchaburi are the pick at 45% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Ratchaburi offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.29 combined xG gives a 40% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.2 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 46% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Prachuap 60% | Ratchaburi 30% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Prachuap vs Ratchaburi | Competition: Thai League 1, Regular Season - 13 | Venue: Sam Ao Stadium • Kick-off: Friday 11 Nov 2022, 12:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Prachuap 26% | Draw 29% | Ratchaburi 45% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 40% | BTTS 46% | xG Prachuap 0.95 / Ratchaburi 1.34 • Poisson strength factors: Prachuap attack 1.005 / def 1.206 | Ratchaburi attack 0.931 / def 0.738 | league avg home 1.284 / away 1.196 • Poisson stance: Ratchaburi (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.95
Prachuap xG
Expected Goals
1.34
Ratchaburi xG
46%
BTTS
67%
Over 1.5
40%
Over 2.5
20%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Prachuap vs Ratchaburi kick off?
Prachuap vs Ratchaburi kicked off at 12:00 on Friday 11 November 2022 at Sam Ao Stadium.
What was the final score in Prachuap vs Ratchaburi?
Prachuap 1 - 5 Ratchaburi.
Where is Prachuap vs Ratchaburi being played?
The match is being played at Sam Ao Stadium.
What competition is Prachuap vs Ratchaburi part of?
Prachuap vs Ratchaburi is a Regular Season - 13 fixture in the Thai League 1 (Thailand).
Who is favourite to win Prachuap vs Ratchaburi?
Our statistical model gives Prachuap a 26% chance of winning, Ratchaburi a 45% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Ratchaburi the favourite.
Will both teams score in Prachuap vs Ratchaburi?
Our model estimates a 46% probability that both Prachuap and Ratchaburi will score (BTTS).
Will Prachuap vs Ratchaburi have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 40%.
What is the head-to-head record between Prachuap and Ratchaburi?
Record (2 meetings): Prachuap 1W | Draws 0 | Ratchaburi 1W.
What form are Prachuap and Ratchaburi in?
Prachuap (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 2.50 | L5 L-W-L-D-L. Ratchaburi (all comps): 4W-5D-1L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 0.60 | L5 D-W-D-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Prachuap's attacking strength (1.00x league average) is weighed against Ratchaburi's defensive record (0.74x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.95. The same calculation in reverse, Ratchaburi's attack versus Prachuap's defence, projects 1.34 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 42/42 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.6%. Close behind: 0-1 (11.9%), 0-0 (11.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Ratchaburi Win
26%
3.85
29%
3.46
45%
2.21
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
13.5%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.9%
Draw
0 – 0
10.1%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.95
Prachuap xG
Total xG
2.29
1.34
Ratchaburi xG
3.85
26%
Home win
3.46
29%
Draw
2.21
45%
Away win
Goals Markets
67%
Over 1.5
1.49
33%
Under 1.5
3.03
40%
Over 2.5
2.50
60%
Under 2.5
1.67
20%
Over 3.5
5.00
80%
Under 3.5
1.25
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
46%
BTTS Yes
2.18
54%
BTTS No
1.85
Clean Sheet
26%
3.83
39%
2.59
Win to Nil
7%
14.76
17%
5.74
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.1 | 13.5 | 9.1 | 4.1 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 9.6 | 12.9 | 8.7 | 3.9 | 1.3 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 4.6 | 6.1 | 4.1 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 1.4 | 1.9 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Prachuap vs Ratchaburi?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.6%.
How many goals are Prachuap and Ratchaburi expected to score?
The model projects 0.95 expected goals for Prachuap and 1.34 for Ratchaburi, a combined total of 2.29.
How confident is the prediction model for Prachuap vs Ratchaburi?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Prachuap's recent record stands at 11W 9D 22L from 42 games, a 1.00 PPG return, with L-W-L-D-L in the last five. The sample for Prachuap is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Ratchaburi, meanwhile, have gone 15W 14D 13L across 42 games — 1.40 PPG, with D-W-D-D-D in their last five. The sample for Ratchaburi is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Prachuap on 1.00 PPG, Ratchaburi on 1.40. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Prachuap have managed 6W 5D 9L from 20 games — 1.15 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Ratchaburi's away record stands at 5W 6D 9L across 20 trips, a 1.05 PPG haul.
The Goals Picture
Prachuap are averaging 1.07 goals scored and 1.69 conceded per game recently; Ratchaburi are on 1.07 scored and 1.00 conceded.
Last 42 Results — Thai League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Prachuap
Blended
Ratchaburi
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Prachuap and Ratchaburi in coming into this match?
Prachuap have gone 11W 9D 22L in their last 42 games (1.00 PPG), while Ratchaburi have gone 15W 14D 13L in their last 42 (1.40 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Prachuap at home or Ratchaburi away?
Prachuap's home record (1.15 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Prachuap at home: 1.15 PPG; Ratchaburi away: 1.05 PPG.
Have Prachuap or Ratchaburi been keeping clean sheets recently?
Prachuap have kept a clean sheet in 24% of their recent games, Ratchaburi in 31%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Prachuap and Ratchaburi runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Thai League 1. They last met on 14 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 11 Nov 2022, when Ratchaburi won 1-5 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Prachuap's record when hosting Ratchaburi specifically: 4W 0D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Prachuap
2
Draws
4
Ratchaburi
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Prachuap and Ratchaburi?
From 10 meetings on record, Prachuap have won 4, Ratchaburi have won 4, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Prachuap and Ratchaburi last play each other?
They last met on 14 February 2026, when Ratchaburi 1-1 Prachuap.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Prachuap are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches.
Ratchaburi see a goal before the break in 55% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Prachuap 55%, Ratchaburi 35% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 45% for Prachuap and 25% for Ratchaburi.
On the defensive side: Ratchaburi in 45%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Prachuap home games / Ratchaburi away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Prachuap play Ratchaburi?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 55% of Prachuap's recent matches and 35% of Ratchaburi's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Prachuap vs Ratchaburi usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 45% of Prachuap's recent games and 25% of Ratchaburi's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Prachuap and Ratchaburi tend to score early?
Prachuap have had a goal before half-time in 65% of their recent matches, Ratchaburi in 55% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Ratchaburi run riot with a 1-5 hammering of Prachuap.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Ratchaburi beat Prachuap 1-5 at Sam Ao Stadium, Regular Season - 13, in the Thai League 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Prachuap 0.95 xG and Ratchaburi 1.34 xG, a combined 2.29. The scoreboard read 1-5 for 6 actual goals. Ratchaburi outscored their 1.34 projection by 3.7. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Prachuap attack 1.00 / defence 1.21 against Ratchaburi attack 0.93 / defence 0.74, drawn from 42/42 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Prachuap 26% | Draw 29% | Ratchaburi 45%, with Ratchaburi to win its most likely call at 45%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 40%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 67% and landed. Over 3.5 was 20% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Prachuap 57%, Ratchaburi 31%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Prachuap's trading profile (42 games, 20 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.
Ratchaburi's trading profile (42 games, 20 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Prachuap 1.00 PPG, Ratchaburi 1.40 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Ratchaburi win broke the near-deadlock. Prachuap (home/away splits) shipped 5 against a 1.30 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Ratchaburi (home/away splits) scored 5 against a 0.80 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.