Prachuap vs Pattani – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson rates Prachuap at 59% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Prachuap vs Pattani encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Thai League 1 encounter, Regular Season - 17 sees Pattani travel to Sam Ao Stadium to take on Prachuap. The game is scheduled for Friday 12 February 2027, 12:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Prachuap stand at 6W 2D 2L from 10 Thai League 1 matches — 2.00 PPG. Last five: L W W W L. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Prachuap haven't played a Thai League 1 game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
Prachuap's home record at Sam Ao Stadium: 5W 4D 1L from 10 Thai League 1 appearances (1.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Across all Thai League 1 games this season, Pattani have recorded 0W 1D 0L from 1 outings — 1.00 PPG. Last five: D. Their scoring rate of 0.00 per game is modest, conceding 0.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 1 games (100%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Pattani have played only a handful of Thai League 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
On current form, Prachuap have the edge — a 1.00 PPG advantage (2.00 vs 1.00) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Prachuap 1.76 xG and Pattani 0.77 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Prachuap attack 1.027 / defence 0.942 | Pattani attack 0.850 / defence 1.150. League average goals — home 1.488 / away 0.956. Data: 30 Prachuap games / 1 Pattani games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: Prachuap 59% | Draw 28% | Pattani 13%. Fair-value odds: Prachuap 1.69 | Draw 3.57 | Pattani 7.69. The model has a clear lean to Prachuap (59%) — a 46pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS probability 47% | Total xG 2.52. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.52 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 47% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Prachuap as the most likely outcome at 59% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 28% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.52 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 46% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 1.4 goals per game.
The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (1 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Prachuap vs Pattani | Competition: Thai League 1, Regular Season - 17 | Venue: Sam Ao Stadium • Kick-off: Friday 12 Feb 2027, 12:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Prachuap 59% | Draw 28% | Pattani 13% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 46% | BTTS 47% | xG Prachuap 1.76 / Pattani 0.77 • Poisson strength factors: Prachuap attack 1.027 / def 0.942 | Pattani attack 0.850 / def 1.150 | league avg home 1.488 / away 0.956 • Poisson stance: Prachuap (59%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.76
Prachuap xG
Expected Goals
0.77
Pattani xG
47%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
46%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Prachuap vs Pattani kick off?
Prachuap vs Pattani is scheduled to kick off at 12:00 on Friday 12 February 2027 at Sam Ao Stadium.
Where is Prachuap vs Pattani being played?
The match is being played at Sam Ao Stadium.
What competition is Prachuap vs Pattani part of?
Prachuap vs Pattani is a Regular Season - 17 fixture in the Thai League 1 (Thailand).
Who is favourite to win Prachuap vs Pattani?
Our statistical model gives Prachuap a 59% chance of winning, Pattani a 13% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Prachuap the favourite.
Will both teams score in Prachuap vs Pattani?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both Prachuap and Pattani will score (BTTS).
Will Prachuap vs Pattani have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 46%.
What is the head-to-head record between Prachuap and Pattani?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Prachuap and Pattani in?
Prachuap (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.00 | L5 L-W-W-W-L. Pattani (all comps): 0W-1D-0L in 1 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.00 / GA 0.00 | L5 D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Prachuap's attack rating (1.03) and Pattani's defence rating (1.15), the model arrives at 1.76 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Pattani's attack versus Prachuap's defence, projects 0.77 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 30/1 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.7%. Close behind: 2-0 (12.4%), 1-1 (12.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Prachuap Win
59%
1.71
28%
3.57
13%
7.45
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.1%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
12.4%
Home win
1 – 1
10.8%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.76
Prachuap xG
Total xG
2.52
0.77
Pattani xG
1.71
59%
Home win
3.57
28%
Draw
7.45
13%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
46%
Over 2.5
2.17
54%
Under 2.5
1.85
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.14
53%
BTTS No
1.88
Clean Sheet
47%
2.15
17%
5.80
Win to Nil
27%
3.67
2%
43.15
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.0 | 6.1 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 14.1 | 10.8 | 4.1 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 12.4 | 9.5 | 3.6 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 7.3 | 5.6 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 3.2 | 2.4 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 1.1 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Prachuap vs Pattani?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.7%.
How many goals are Prachuap and Pattani expected to score?
The model projects 1.76 expected goals for Prachuap and 0.77 for Pattani, a combined total of 2.52.
How confident is the prediction model for Prachuap vs Pattani?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 59%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Prachuap come into this having played 1 games, going 0W 0D 1L for 0.00 points per game. Their last five reads L. Prachuap haven't played enough this season for a current-season-only sample, so this includes results carried over from last season.
On the other side, Pattani sit at 1.00 PPG from 1 outings (0W 1D 0L), a run that reads D across their last five. It's still early in the season for Pattani, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Pattani carry the stronger recent form of the two, 1.00 PPG clear of Prachuap — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Goals in Recent Form
Prachuap are averaging 0.00 goals scored and 3.00 conceded per game recently; Pattani are on 0.00 scored and 0.00 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Prachuap have seen both teams score in 0% of their recent games; Pattani in 0%.
Defensively: Pattani in 100% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 1 Results — Thai League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Prachuap
Pre-Season
Pattani
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Prachuap and Pattani in coming into this match?
Prachuap have gone 0W 0D 1L in their last 1 games (0.00 PPG), while Pattani have gone 0W 1D 0L in their last 1 (1.00 PPG).
Have Prachuap or Pattani been keeping clean sheets recently?
Prachuap have kept a clean sheet in 0% of their recent games, Pattani in 100%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Prachuap home games / Pattani away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Prachuap play Pattani?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 0% of Prachuap's recent matches and 0% of Pattani's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Prachuap vs Pattani usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 100% of Prachuap's recent games and 0% of Pattani's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Prachuap and Pattani tend to score early?
Prachuap have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, Pattani in 0% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.