Prachuap 1-2 Chonburi FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Chonburi FC at 62% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Prachuap vs Chonburi FC encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Thai League 1 encounter, Regular Season - 12 sees Chonburi FC travel to Sam Ao Stadium to take on Prachuap. The game is scheduled for Wednesday 10 November 2021, 11:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Prachuap stand at 2W 2D 6L from 10 Thai League 1 matches — 0.80 PPG. Last five: D W L L L. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Prachuap, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Sam Ao Stadium, Prachuap have gone 0W 2D 2L this season (4 games, 0.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.75 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game.
Chonburi FC — All Games: 5W 2D 3L from 10 Thai League 1 fixtures this season — 1.70 PPG. Last five: W L D W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.10 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Chonburi FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Chonburi FC away from home this season: 2W 1D 2L from 5 away games — 1.40 PPG on the road. They are averaging 2.40 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Chonburi FC — 0.90 PPG ahead of the hosts (1.70 vs 0.80). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
In-Play Profile
Prachuap in-play tendencies (11 games, 4 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
Chonburi FC in-play tendencies (11 games, 4 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; they lead at the break 46% of the time; BTTS occurs in 25% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Prachuap 54% versus Chonburi FC 64%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Prachuap 54% | Chonburi FC 54%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Prachuap 0.91 xG and Chonburi FC 1.98 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Prachuap attack 0.741 / defence 1.288 | Chonburi FC attack 1.207 / defence 1.128. League average goals — home 1.091 / away 1.275. Prachuap's attack strength of 0.741 is below the league average — the 0.91 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Chonburi FC have an above-average attack strength of 1.207 — the away xG of 1.98 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 11 Prachuap games / 11 Chonburi FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Prachuap 17% | Draw 21% | Chonburi FC 62%. Fair-value odds: Prachuap 5.88 | Draw 4.76 | Chonburi FC 1.61. The model has a clear lean to Chonburi FC (62%) — a 45pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 55% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.89. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 55% — the 2.89 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Chonburi FC as the most likely outcome at 62% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 21% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.89 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 55% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 52%. Form rates are neutral: Prachuap 50% | Chonburi FC 40%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Prachuap vs Chonburi FC | Competition: Thai League 1, Regular Season - 12 | Venue: Sam Ao Stadium • Kick-off: Wednesday 10 Nov 2021, 11:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Prachuap 17% | Draw 21% | Chonburi FC 62% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 55% | BTTS 52% | xG Prachuap 0.91 / Chonburi FC 1.98 • Poisson strength factors: Prachuap attack 0.741 / def 1.288 | Chonburi FC attack 1.207 / def 1.128 | league avg home 1.091 / away 1.275 • Poisson stance: Chonburi FC (62%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.91
Prachuap xG
Expected Goals
1.98
Chonburi FC xG
52%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
55%
Over 2.5
33%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Prachuap vs Chonburi FC kick off?
Prachuap vs Chonburi FC kicked off at 11:00 on Wednesday 10 November 2021 at Sam Ao Stadium.
What was the final score in Prachuap vs Chonburi FC?
Prachuap 1 - 2 Chonburi FC.
Where is Prachuap vs Chonburi FC being played?
The match is being played at Sam Ao Stadium.
What competition is Prachuap vs Chonburi FC part of?
Prachuap vs Chonburi FC is a Regular Season - 12 fixture in the Thai League 1 (Thailand).
Who is favourite to win Prachuap vs Chonburi FC?
Our statistical model gives Prachuap a 17% chance of winning, Chonburi FC a 62% chance, and a 21% chance of a draw — making Chonburi FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Prachuap vs Chonburi FC?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Prachuap and Chonburi FC will score (BTTS).
Will Prachuap vs Chonburi FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 55%.
What is the head-to-head record between Prachuap and Chonburi FC?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Prachuap and Chonburi FC in?
Prachuap (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.50 | L5 D-W-L-L-L. Chonburi FC (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 2.10 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-L-D-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Prachuap's attacking strength (0.74x league average) is weighed against Chonburi FC's defensive record (1.13x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.91. The same calculation in reverse, Chonburi FC's attack versus Prachuap's defence, projects 1.98 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 11/11 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 11.3%. Close behind: 0-2 (10.9%), 1-2 (9.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Chonburi FC Win
17%
6.03
21%
4.75
62%
1.60
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
11.0%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 2
10.9%
Away win
1 – 1
10.0%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.91
Prachuap xG
Total xG
2.89
1.98
Chonburi FC xG
6.03
17%
Home win
4.75
21%
Draw
1.60
62%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
55%
Over 2.5
1.82
45%
Under 2.5
2.22
33%
Over 3.5
3.03
67%
Under 3.5
1.49
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.94
48%
BTTS No
2.06
Clean Sheet
14%
7.26
40%
2.49
Win to Nil
2%
43.74
25%
3.99
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.5 | 11.0 | 10.9 | 7.2 | 3.6 | 1.4 |
| 1 | 5.0 | 10.0 | 9.9 | 6.6 | 3.2 | 1.3 |
| 2 | 2.3 | 4.6 | 4.5 | 3.0 | 1.5 | 0.6 |
| 3 | 0.7 | 1.4 | 1.4 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | – | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Prachuap vs Chonburi FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.3%.
How many goals are Prachuap and Chonburi FC expected to score?
The model projects 0.91 expected goals for Prachuap and 1.98 for Chonburi FC, a combined total of 2.89.
How confident is the prediction model for Prachuap vs Chonburi FC?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 62%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 11 outings, Prachuap have picked up 0.82 PPG on a 2W 3D 6L record — D-W-L-L-L across the most recent five. The sample for Prachuap is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Chonburi FC's form line: 5W 3D 3L from 11 games, 1.64 PPG, last five W-L-D-W-W. The sample for Chonburi FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Chonburi FC are the form team by 0.82 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Prachuap.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Prachuap have posted 0.50 PPG from 4 outings (0W 2D 2L).
On the road, Chonburi FC have gone 2W 0D 2L from 4 away games — 1.50 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Chonburi FC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Prachuap are averaging 0.91 goals scored and 1.55 conceded per game recently; Chonburi FC are on 2.00 scored and 1.27 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Chonburi FC in 64%.
Last 11 Results — Thai League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Prachuap
Blended
Chonburi FC
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Prachuap and Chonburi FC in coming into this match?
Prachuap have gone 2W 3D 6L in their last 11 games (0.82 PPG), while Chonburi FC have gone 5W 3D 3L in their last 11 (1.64 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Prachuap at home or Chonburi FC away?
Chonburi FC's away record (1.50 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Prachuap at home: 0.50 PPG; Chonburi FC away: 1.50 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Prachuap and Chonburi FC runs to 8 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Thai League 1. They last met on 18 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Prachuap's record when hosting Chonburi FC specifically: 3W 0D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
3
Prachuap
2
Draws
3
Chonburi FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Prachuap and Chonburi FC?
From 8 meetings on record, Prachuap have won 3, Chonburi FC have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Prachuap and Chonburi FC last play each other?
They last met on 18 April 2026, when Prachuap 2-0 Chonburi FC.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Prachuap are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Chonburi FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Prachuap 50%, Chonburi FC 25% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Prachuap) and 50% (Chonburi FC).
On the defensive side: Prachuap have failed to score in 50% of games; Chonburi FC in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Prachuap home games / Chonburi FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Prachuap play Chonburi FC?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Prachuap's recent matches and 25% of Chonburi FC's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Prachuap vs Chonburi FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Prachuap's recent games and 50% of Chonburi FC's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Prachuap and Chonburi FC tend to score early?
Prachuap have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, Chonburi FC in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Chonburi FC edge out Prachuap 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Chonburi FC beat Prachuap 1-2 at Sam Ao Stadium, Regular Season - 12, in the Thai League 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Prachuap 0.91 xG and Chonburi FC 1.98 xG, a combined 2.89. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Prachuap attack 0.74 / defence 1.29 against Chonburi FC attack 1.21 / defence 1.13, drawn from 11/11 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Prachuap 17% | Draw 21% | Chonburi FC 62%, with Chonburi FC to win its most likely call at 62%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Prachuap 54%, Chonburi FC 54%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Prachuap's trading profile (11 games, 4 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.
Chonburi FC's trading profile (11 games, 4 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Chonburi FC arrived the stronger side — 1.64 PPG against 0.82. The form guide was vindicated by the result.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.