Prachuap vs Chonburi FC – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson rates Prachuap at 43% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Prachuap vs Chonburi FC encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Thai League 1 encounter, Regular Season - 19 sees Chonburi FC travel to Sam Ao Stadium to take on Prachuap. The game is scheduled for Sunday 28 February 2027, 11:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Prachuap stand at 7W 1D 2L from 10 Thai League 1 matches — 2.20 PPG. Last five: W W W W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 0.70 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.70 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. Prachuap have played only a handful of Thai League 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
At home at Sam Ao Stadium, Prachuap have gone 7W 3D 0L this season (10 games, 2.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 0.50 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Sam Ao Stadium.
Chonburi FC — All Games: 2W 2D 6L from 10 Thai League 1 fixtures this season — 0.80 PPG. Last five: L L L L W. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Chonburi FC have played only a handful of Thai League 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Chonburi FC away from home this season: 3W 1D 6L from 10 away games — 1.00 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game.
On current form, Prachuap have the edge — a 1.40 PPG advantage (2.20 vs 0.80) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 9 previous encounters have yielded 4 wins for Prachuap, 3 for Chonburi FC and 2 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 9 previous meetings have averaged 2.7 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 17 Oct 2026, ended 2–1 with Prachuap winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Prachuap in-play tendencies (36 games, 18 at home): they score before half-time in 61% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; BTTS occurs in 39% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 28% of games (home games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
Chonburi FC in-play tendencies (36 games, 18 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 61% of games (away games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Prachuap 47% versus Chonburi FC 58%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Prachuap 42% | Chonburi FC 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Prachuap 1.28 xG and Chonburi FC 0.97 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Prachuap attack 0.907 / defence 0.727 | Chonburi FC attack 0.912 / defence 0.978. League average goals — home 1.445 / away 1.456. Prachuap's defence rating of 0.727 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 36 Prachuap games / 36 Chonburi FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Prachuap 43% | Draw 30% | Chonburi FC 27%. Fair-value odds: Prachuap 2.33 | Draw 3.33 | Chonburi FC 3.70. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 39% | BTTS probability 46% | Total xG 2.25. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 61% — total xG of 2.25 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 46% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Prachuap as the most likely outcome at 43% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Prachuap offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.25 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 39% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 46%. Form rates corroborate: Prachuap 40% | Chonburi FC 50% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Prachuap vs Chonburi FC | Competition: Thai League 1, Regular Season - 19 | Venue: Sam Ao Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 28 Feb 2027, 11:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Prachuap 43% | Draw 30% | Chonburi FC 27% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 39% | BTTS 46% | xG Prachuap 1.28 / Chonburi FC 0.97 • Poisson strength factors: Prachuap attack 0.907 / def 0.727 | Chonburi FC attack 0.912 / def 0.978 | league avg home 1.445 / away 1.456 • Poisson stance: Prachuap (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.28
Prachuap xG
Expected Goals
0.97
Chonburi FC xG
46%
BTTS
67%
Over 1.5
39%
Over 2.5
19%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Prachuap vs Chonburi FC kick off?
Prachuap vs Chonburi FC is scheduled to kick off at 11:30 on Sunday 28 February 2027 at Sam Ao Stadium.
Where is Prachuap vs Chonburi FC being played?
The match is being played at Sam Ao Stadium.
What competition is Prachuap vs Chonburi FC part of?
Prachuap vs Chonburi FC is a Regular Season - 19 fixture in the Thai League 1 (Thailand).
Who is favourite to win Prachuap vs Chonburi FC?
Our statistical model gives Prachuap a 43% chance of winning, Chonburi FC a 27% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Prachuap the favourite.
Will both teams score in Prachuap vs Chonburi FC?
Our model estimates a 46% probability that both Prachuap and Chonburi FC will score (BTTS).
Will Prachuap vs Chonburi FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 39%.
What is the head-to-head record between Prachuap and Chonburi FC?
Record (9 meetings): Prachuap 4W | Draws 2 | Chonburi FC 3W.
What form are Prachuap and Chonburi FC in?
Prachuap (all comps): 7W-1D-2L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 0.70 | L5 W-W-W-W-D. Chonburi FC (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-L-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Prachuap's attacking strength (0.91x league average) is weighed against Chonburi FC's defensive record (0.98x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.28. The same calculation in reverse, Chonburi FC's attack versus Prachuap's defence, projects 0.97 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 36/36 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.8%. Close behind: 0-0 (12.3%), 1-0 (11.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Prachuap Win
43%
2.34
30%
3.29
27%
3.71
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.5%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.1%
Draw
0 – 0
10.6%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.28
Prachuap xG
Total xG
2.25
0.97
Chonburi FC xG
2.34
43%
Home win
3.29
30%
Draw
3.71
27%
Away win
Goals Markets
66%
Over 1.5
1.52
34%
Under 1.5
2.94
39%
Over 2.5
2.56
61%
Under 2.5
1.64
19%
Over 3.5
5.26
81%
Under 3.5
1.23
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
46%
BTTS Yes
2.18
54%
BTTS No
1.84
Clean Sheet
38%
2.63
28%
3.60
Win to Nil
16%
6.16
7%
13.37
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.6 | 10.2 | 4.9 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.5 | 13.1 | 6.3 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.7 | 8.4 | 4.0 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.7 | 3.6 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Prachuap vs Chonburi FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.8%.
How many goals are Prachuap and Chonburi FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.28 expected goals for Prachuap and 0.97 for Chonburi FC, a combined total of 2.25.
How confident is the prediction model for Prachuap vs Chonburi FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 36 outings, Prachuap have picked up 1.61 PPG on a 15W 13D 8L record — W-W-W-W-D across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Prachuap, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Chonburi FC's form line: 11W 9D 16L from 36 games, 1.17 PPG, last five L-L-L-L-W. It's still early in the season for Chonburi FC, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Put side by side, Prachuap are the form team by 0.44 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Chonburi FC.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Prachuap have posted 2.06 PPG from 18 outings (10W 7D 1L). That's noticeably better than their 1.61 PPG overall — Prachuap are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Chonburi FC have gone 5W 4D 9L from 18 away games — 1.06 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Prachuap come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Prachuap are averaging 1.31 goals scored and 1.11 conceded per game recently; Chonburi FC are on 1.22 scored and 1.42 conceded.
Defensively: Prachuap have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 36 Results — Thai League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Prachuap
Early Season
Chonburi FC
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Prachuap and Chonburi FC in coming into this match?
Prachuap have gone 15W 13D 8L in their last 36 games (1.61 PPG), while Chonburi FC have gone 11W 9D 16L in their last 36 (1.17 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Prachuap at home or Chonburi FC away?
Prachuap's home record (2.06 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Prachuap at home: 2.06 PPG; Chonburi FC away: 1.06 PPG.
Have Prachuap or Chonburi FC been keeping clean sheets recently?
Prachuap have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their recent games, Chonburi FC in 11%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Prachuap and Chonburi FC runs to 9 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Thai League 1. The two were last together as recently as 17 October 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
Prachuap have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
Prachuap's record when hosting Chonburi FC specifically: 3W 0D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 9 Meetings
4
Prachuap
2
Draws
3
Chonburi FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Prachuap and Chonburi FC?
From 9 meetings on record, Prachuap have won 4, Chonburi FC have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Prachuap and Chonburi FC last play each other?
They last met on 17 October 2026, when Chonburi FC 1-2 Prachuap.
Who has won more matches between Prachuap and Chonburi FC?
Prachuap have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 9 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Prachuap are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 61% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 44% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Chonburi FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Prachuap 39%, Chonburi FC 56% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 28% (Prachuap) and 61% (Chonburi FC).
On the defensive side: Prachuap keep a clean sheet in 56% of their matches; Chonburi FC in 44%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Prachuap home games / Chonburi FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Prachuap play Chonburi FC?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 39% of Prachuap's recent matches and 56% of Chonburi FC's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Prachuap vs Chonburi FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 28% of Prachuap's recent games and 61% of Chonburi FC's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Prachuap and Chonburi FC tend to score early?
Prachuap have had a goal before half-time in 61% of their recent matches, Chonburi FC in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.