Prachuap 2-0 Chonburi FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Prachuap at 54%, yet other data sources diverge — this Prachuap vs Chonburi FC fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Thai League 1 encounter, Regular Season - 20 sees Chonburi FC travel to Sam Ao Stadium to take on Prachuap. The game is scheduled for Saturday 18 April 2026, 12:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Prachuap stand at 4W 5D 1L from 10 Thai League 1 matches — 1.70 PPG. Last five: W W D D L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 0.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Prachuap, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Sam Ao Stadium, Prachuap have gone 5W 4D 1L this season (10 games, 1.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Chonburi FC — All Games: 6W 1D 3L from 10 Thai League 1 fixtures this season — 1.90 PPG. Last five: L W L W W. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.40. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Chonburi FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Chonburi FC away from home this season: 4W 1D 5L from 10 away games — 1.30 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.30 is notably below their overall 1.90 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Prachuap at 1.70 PPG versus Chonburi FC's 1.90. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 7 previous encounters have yielded 2 wins for Prachuap, 3 for Chonburi FC and 2 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 7 previous meetings have averaged 2.7 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 27 Sep 2025, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Prachuap in-play tendencies (26 games, 13 at home): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 31% of games (home games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
Chonburi FC in-play tendencies (26 games, 13 at away): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (away games); they fail to score in 35% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Prachuap 54% versus Chonburi FC 58%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Prachuap 38% | Chonburi FC 46%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Prachuap 1.82 xG and Chonburi FC 1.00 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Prachuap attack 1.019 / defence 0.909 | Chonburi FC attack 1.018 / defence 1.221. League average goals — home 1.462 / away 1.077. Chonburi FC bring a strong defensive rating of 1.221 — this is suppressing Prachuap's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 56 Prachuap games / 26 Chonburi FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Prachuap 54% | Draw 28% | Chonburi FC 18%. Fair-value odds: Prachuap 1.85 | Draw 3.57 | Chonburi FC 5.56. Prachuap hold a narrow Poisson edge at 54% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 53% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 2.81. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 53%/47% — the total xG of 2.81 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Prachuap as the most likely outcome at 54% — moderate model lean. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Prachuap offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.81 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 53% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game and H2H averaging 2.7 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 55%. Form rates corroborate: Prachuap 50% | Chonburi FC 60% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Prachuap vs Chonburi FC | Competition: Thai League 1, Regular Season - 20 | Venue: Sam Ao Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 18 Apr 2026, 12:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Prachuap 54% | Draw 28% | Chonburi FC 18% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 53% | BTTS 55% | xG Prachuap 1.82 / Chonburi FC 1.00 • Poisson strength factors: Prachuap attack 1.019 / def 0.909 | Chonburi FC attack 1.018 / def 1.221 | league avg home 1.462 / away 1.077 • Poisson stance: Prachuap (54%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.82
Prachuap xG
Expected Goals
1.00
Chonburi FC xG
55%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
53%
Over 2.5
31%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Prachuap vs Chonburi FC kick off?
Prachuap vs Chonburi FC kicked off at 12:00 on Saturday 18 April 2026 at Sam Ao Stadium.
What was the final score in Prachuap vs Chonburi FC?
Prachuap 2 - 0 Chonburi FC.
Where is Prachuap vs Chonburi FC being played?
The match is being played at Sam Ao Stadium.
What competition is Prachuap vs Chonburi FC part of?
Prachuap vs Chonburi FC is a Regular Season - 20 fixture in the Thai League 1 (Thailand).
Who is favourite to win Prachuap vs Chonburi FC?
Our statistical model gives Prachuap a 54% chance of winning, Chonburi FC a 18% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Prachuap the favourite.
Will both teams score in Prachuap vs Chonburi FC?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both Prachuap and Chonburi FC will score (BTTS).
Will Prachuap vs Chonburi FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 53%.
What is the head-to-head record between Prachuap and Chonburi FC?
Record (7 meetings): Prachuap 2W | Draws 2 | Chonburi FC 3W.
What form are Prachuap and Chonburi FC in?
Prachuap (all comps): 4W-5D-1L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-W-D-D-L. Chonburi FC (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-W-L-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Prachuap's attacking strength (1.02x league average) is weighed against Chonburi FC's defensive record (1.22x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.82. The same calculation in reverse, Chonburi FC's attack versus Prachuap's defence, projects 1.00 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 56/26 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.3%. Close behind: 2-0 (9.9%), 2-1 (9.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Prachuap Win
54%
1.84
28%
3.62
18%
5.52
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
10.9%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
10.9%
Draw
2 – 0
9.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.82
Prachuap xG
Total xG
2.81
1.00
Chonburi FC xG
1.84
54%
Home win
3.62
28%
Draw
5.52
18%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
53%
Over 2.5
1.89
47%
Under 2.5
2.13
31%
Over 3.5
3.23
69%
Under 3.5
1.45
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.81
45%
BTTS No
2.23
Clean Sheet
37%
2.71
16%
6.16
Win to Nil
20%
5.00
3%
34.03
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.0 | 6.0 | 3.0 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 10.9 | 10.9 | 5.4 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.9 | 9.9 | 4.9 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.0 | 6.0 | 3.0 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 2.7 | 2.7 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Prachuap vs Chonburi FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.3%.
How many goals are Prachuap and Chonburi FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.82 expected goals for Prachuap and 1.00 for Chonburi FC, a combined total of 2.81.
How confident is the prediction model for Prachuap vs Chonburi FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 54%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 26 outings, Prachuap have picked up 1.38 PPG on a 8W 12D 6L record — W-W-D-D-L across the most recent five. The sample for Prachuap is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Chonburi FC's form line: 9W 7D 10L from 26 games, 1.31 PPG, last five L-W-L-W-W. The sample for Chonburi FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Prachuap on 1.38 PPG, Chonburi FC on 1.31. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Prachuap have posted 1.85 PPG from 13 outings (6W 6D 1L). That's noticeably better than their 1.38 PPG overall — Prachuap are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Chonburi FC have gone 4W 3D 6L from 13 away games — 1.15 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Prachuap come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Prachuap are averaging 1.23 goals scored and 1.27 conceded per game recently; Chonburi FC are on 1.31 scored and 1.38 conceded.
Last 26 Results — Thai League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Prachuap
Blended
Chonburi FC
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Prachuap and Chonburi FC in coming into this match?
Prachuap have gone 8W 12D 6L in their last 26 games (1.38 PPG), while Chonburi FC have gone 9W 7D 10L in their last 26 (1.31 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Prachuap at home or Chonburi FC away?
Prachuap's home record (1.85 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Prachuap at home: 1.85 PPG; Chonburi FC away: 1.15 PPG.
Have Prachuap or Chonburi FC been keeping clean sheets recently?
Prachuap have kept a clean sheet in 31% of their recent games, Chonburi FC in 12%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Prachuap and Chonburi FC runs to 8 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Thai League 1. They last met on 18 April 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Prachuap's record when hosting Chonburi FC specifically: 3W 0D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
3
Prachuap
2
Draws
3
Chonburi FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Prachuap and Chonburi FC?
From 8 meetings on record, Prachuap have won 3, Chonburi FC have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Prachuap and Chonburi FC last play each other?
They last met on 18 April 2026, when Prachuap 2-0 Chonburi FC.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Prachuap are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 15% of those situations.
Chonburi FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Prachuap 46%, Chonburi FC 54% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 31% (Prachuap) and 62% (Chonburi FC).
On the defensive side: Prachuap keep a clean sheet in 46% of their matches; Chonburi FC in 46%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Prachuap home games / Chonburi FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Prachuap play Chonburi FC?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 46% of Prachuap's recent matches and 54% of Chonburi FC's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Prachuap vs Chonburi FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 31% of Prachuap's recent games and 62% of Chonburi FC's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Prachuap and Chonburi FC tend to score early?
Prachuap have had a goal before half-time in 62% of their recent matches, Chonburi FC in 62% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prachuap cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Chonburi FC.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Prachuap beat Chonburi FC 2-0 at Sam Ao Stadium, Regular Season - 20, in the Thai League 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Prachuap 1.82 xG and Chonburi FC 1.00 xG, a combined 2.81. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Chonburi FC landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Prachuap attack 1.02 / defence 0.91 against Chonburi FC attack 1.02 / defence 1.22, drawn from 56/26 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Prachuap 54% | Draw 28% | Chonburi FC 18%, with Prachuap to win its most likely call at 54%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 42% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Prachuap 38%, Chonburi FC 46%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Prachuap's trading profile (26 games, 13 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and duly kept one.
Chonburi FC's trading profile (26 games, 13 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 35% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Prachuap 1.38 PPG, Chonburi FC 1.31 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Prachuap win broke the near-deadlock. Prachuap (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 0.92 average — tighter than their form line. Chonburi FC (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.15 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.