Prachuap 2-1 Chiangrai United – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Chiangrai United at 41% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Prachuap vs Chiangrai United encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Prachuap and Chiangrai United meet at Sam Ao Stadium in Thai League 1, Regular Season - 4. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 3 September 2022 at 13:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Prachuap have collected 1.00 PPG across 10 Thai League 1 outings this season: 3W 1D 6L. Last five: D L W L L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 2.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Prachuap have played only a handful of Thai League 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Prachuap's home record at Sam Ao Stadium: 4W 1D 5L from 10 Thai League 1 appearances (1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Chiangrai United's overall Thai League 1 record this term: 5W 4D 1L from 10 games (1.90 PPG). Last five: D W W W W. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 0.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.70 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. Chiangrai United have played only a handful of Thai League 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Chiangrai United's away record: 5W 3D 2L from 10 road trips in Thai League 1 this season (1.80 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
On a straight form reading, Chiangrai United are the stronger side — 0.90 PPG clear of the hosts (1.90 vs 1.00). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 2 meetings: Prachuap 1W, Chiangrai United 1W, 0D.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.5 goals per game across 2 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 22 Jan 2022, ended 1–3 with Chiangrai United winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.5 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
Prachuap goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (33 games, 16 at home): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (home games); they fail to score in 30% of games.
Chiangrai United goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (33 games, 16 at away): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time; they fail to score in 30% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Prachuap 54% versus Chiangrai United 39%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Prachuap 54% | Chiangrai United 42%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Prachuap 0.87 xG and Chiangrai United 1.13 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Prachuap attack 0.831 / defence 1.012 | Chiangrai United attack 0.966 / defence 0.824. League average goals — home 1.272 / away 1.152. Data: 33 Prachuap games / 33 Chiangrai United games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Prachuap 28% | Draw 31% | Chiangrai United 41%. Fair-value odds: Prachuap 3.57 | Draw 3.23 | Chiangrai United 2.44. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 32% | BTTS probability 39% | Total xG 2.00. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 68% probability — total xG of 2.00 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 39% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Chiangrai United as the most likely outcome at 41% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 31% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Chiangrai United if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.00 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 32% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 1.9 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 39% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Prachuap 40% | Chiangrai United 40% BTTS from recent games.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (33 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Prachuap vs Chiangrai United | Competition: Thai League 1, Regular Season - 4 | Venue: Sam Ao Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 3 Sep 2022, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Prachuap 28% | Draw 31% | Chiangrai United 41% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 32% | BTTS 39% | xG Prachuap 0.87 / Chiangrai United 1.13 • Poisson strength factors: Prachuap attack 0.831 / def 1.012 | Chiangrai United attack 0.966 / def 0.824 | league avg home 1.272 / away 1.152 • Poisson stance: Chiangrai United (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.87
Prachuap xG
Expected Goals
1.13
Chiangrai United xG
39%
BTTS
59%
Over 1.5
32%
Over 2.5
14%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Prachuap vs Chiangrai United kick off?
Prachuap vs Chiangrai United kicked off at 13:00 on Saturday 3 September 2022 at Sam Ao Stadium.
What was the final score in Prachuap vs Chiangrai United?
Prachuap 2 - 1 Chiangrai United.
Where is Prachuap vs Chiangrai United being played?
The match is being played at Sam Ao Stadium.
What competition is Prachuap vs Chiangrai United part of?
Prachuap vs Chiangrai United is a Regular Season - 4 fixture in the Thai League 1 (Thailand).
Who is favourite to win Prachuap vs Chiangrai United?
Our statistical model gives Prachuap a 28% chance of winning, Chiangrai United a 41% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Chiangrai United the favourite.
Will both teams score in Prachuap vs Chiangrai United?
Our model estimates a 39% probability that both Prachuap and Chiangrai United will score (BTTS).
Will Prachuap vs Chiangrai United have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 32%.
What is the head-to-head record between Prachuap and Chiangrai United?
Record (2 meetings): Prachuap 1W | Draws 0 | Chiangrai United 1W.
What form are Prachuap and Chiangrai United in?
Prachuap (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 2.00 | L5 D-L-W-L-L. Chiangrai United (all comps): 5W-4D-1L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 0.70 | L5 D-W-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Prachuap's attack at 0.83x the league average against Chiangrai United's defence at 0.82x — combine the two and it projects 0.87 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Chiangrai United's attack (0.97x) against Prachuap's defence (1.01x) — and the away total comes out at 1.13.
The sample (33/33 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 0-0 carries the highest individual probability at 15.3% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (15.0%), 0-1 (13.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 44% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Chiangrai United Win
28%
3.56
31%
3.28
41%
2.41
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
15.3%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 0
13.6%
Draw
1 – 1
13.3%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.87
Prachuap xG
Total xG
2.00
1.13
Chiangrai United xG
3.56
28%
Home win
3.28
31%
Draw
2.41
41%
Away win
Goals Markets
59%
Over 1.5
1.69
41%
Under 1.5
2.44
32%
Over 2.5
3.12
68%
Under 2.5
1.47
14%
Over 3.5
7.14
86%
Under 3.5
1.16
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
39%
BTTS Yes
2.55
61%
BTTS No
1.65
Clean Sheet
32%
3.08
42%
2.39
Win to Nil
9%
10.99
17%
5.77
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 13.6 | 15.3 | 8.6 | 3.2 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.8 | 13.3 | 7.5 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 5.1 | 5.8 | 3.3 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.5 | 1.7 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Prachuap vs Chiangrai United?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.3%.
How many goals are Prachuap and Chiangrai United expected to score?
The model projects 0.87 expected goals for Prachuap and 1.13 for Chiangrai United, a combined total of 2.00.
How confident is the prediction model for Prachuap vs Chiangrai United?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Prachuap come into this having played 33 games, going 9W 7D 17L for 1.03 points per game. Their last five reads D-L-W-L-L. It's still early in the season for Prachuap, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Chiangrai United sit at 1.70 PPG from 33 outings (16W 8D 9L), a run that reads D-W-W-W-W across their last five. It's still early in the season for Chiangrai United, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Chiangrai United carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.67 PPG clear of Prachuap — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home & Away Splits
Prachuap's home form reads 4W 4D 8L across 16 games on their own ground, a 1.00 PPG return.
Away from home, Chiangrai United have taken 2.06 points per game from 16 outings (10W 3D 3L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Chiangrai United come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Prachuap are averaging 1.06 goals scored and 1.55 conceded per game recently; Chiangrai United are on 1.12 scored and 1.06 conceded.
Defensively: Chiangrai United in 42% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 33 Results — Thai League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Prachuap
Early Season
Chiangrai United
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Prachuap and Chiangrai United in coming into this match?
Prachuap have gone 9W 7D 17L in their last 33 games (1.03 PPG), while Chiangrai United have gone 16W 8D 9L in their last 33 (1.70 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Prachuap at home or Chiangrai United away?
Chiangrai United's away record (2.06 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Prachuap at home: 1.00 PPG; Chiangrai United away: 2.06 PPG.
Have Prachuap or Chiangrai United been keeping clean sheets recently?
Prachuap have kept a clean sheet in 27% of their recent games, Chiangrai United in 42%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since September 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Thai League 1. They last met on 10 January 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Prachuap have gone 4W 0D 1L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Chiangrai United — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Prachuap
2
Draws
3
Chiangrai United
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Prachuap and Chiangrai United?
From 10 meetings on record, Prachuap have won 5, Chiangrai United have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Prachuap and Chiangrai United last play each other?
They last met on 10 January 2026, when Prachuap 3-2 Chiangrai United.
Who has won more matches between Prachuap and Chiangrai United?
Prachuap have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Prachuap are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
Chiangrai United are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 44% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Prachuap 50%, Chiangrai United 44% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 44% (Prachuap) and 38% (Chiangrai United).
On the defensive side: Prachuap keep a clean sheet in 31% of their matches; Chiangrai United in 44%; Prachuap have failed to score in 31% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Prachuap home games / Chiangrai United away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Prachuap play Chiangrai United?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Prachuap's recent matches and 44% of Chiangrai United's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Prachuap vs Chiangrai United usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 44% of Prachuap's recent games and 38% of Chiangrai United's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Prachuap and Chiangrai United tend to score early?
Prachuap have had a goal before half-time in 69% of their recent matches, Chiangrai United in 62% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Prachuap defy the odds to beat Chiangrai United 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Prachuap beat Chiangrai United 2-1 at Sam Ao Stadium, Regular Season - 4, in the Thai League 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Prachuap 0.87 xG and Chiangrai United 1.13 xG, a combined 2.00. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Prachuap beat their projection by 1.1 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Prachuap attack 0.83 / defence 1.01 against Chiangrai United attack 0.97 / defence 0.82, drawn from 33/33 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Prachuap 28% | Draw 31% | Chiangrai United 41%, with Chiangrai United to win its most likely call at 41%. The actual Prachuap win had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 32%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 59% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 39% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Prachuap 54%, Chiangrai United 42%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Prachuap's trading profile (33 games, 16 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.
Chiangrai United's trading profile (33 games, 16 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 39% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Chiangrai United arrived the stronger side — 1.70 PPG against 1.03. Form was overturned, with Prachuap winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Prachuap (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.88 average — above their attacking norm. Chiangrai United (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 0.88 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.