Prachuap 2-0 Chiangrai United – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Prachuap at 71%, yet other data sources diverge — this Prachuap vs Chiangrai United fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Prachuap and Chiangrai United meet at Sam Ao Stadium in Thai League 1, Regular Season - 19. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 26 January 2025 at 11:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Prachuap have collected 1.40 PPG across 10 Thai League 1 outings this season: 3W 5D 2L. Last five: D D L D L. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.20 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Prachuap, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Prachuap's home record at Sam Ao Stadium: 6W 4D 0L from 10 Thai League 1 appearances (2.20 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Sam Ao Stadium. Their home PPG of 2.20 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.40 — Prachuap are significantly better at Sam Ao Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Chiangrai United's overall Thai League 1 record this term: 4W 1D 5L from 10 games (1.30 PPG). Last five: L W W L W. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Chiangrai United, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Chiangrai United's away record: 1W 1D 8L from 10 road trips in Thai League 1 this season (0.40 PPG). Away from home they average 0.40 goals scored and 2.40 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 0.40 is notably below their overall 1.30 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.40 for Prachuap, 1.30 for Chiangrai United — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 7 meetings: Prachuap 3W, Chiangrai United 2W, 2D.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 2.9 goals per game across 7 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 31 Aug 2024, ended 1–1 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 2.9 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
Prachuap goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (48 games, 23 at home): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (home games).
Chiangrai United goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (48 games, 23 at away): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 54% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (away games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Prachuap 54% versus Chiangrai United 44%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Prachuap 46% | Chiangrai United 44%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Prachuap 2.37 xG and Chiangrai United 0.84 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Prachuap attack 1.005 / defence 0.939 | Chiangrai United attack 0.753 / defence 1.353. League average goals — home 1.745 / away 1.189. Chiangrai United bring a strong defensive rating of 1.353 — this is suppressing Prachuap's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 48 Prachuap games / 48 Chiangrai United games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Prachuap 71% | Draw 18% | Chiangrai United 11%. Fair-value odds: Prachuap 1.41 | Draw 5.56 | Chiangrai United 9.09. The model has a clear lean to Prachuap (71%) — a 60pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 62% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 3.21. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 62% — the 3.21 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Prachuap as the most likely outcome at 71% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 18% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 3.21 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 62% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game and H2H averaging 2.9 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 52% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. This conflicts with form data: Prachuap 40% | Chiangrai United 20% from recent games — a notable divergence.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Prachuap vs Chiangrai United | Competition: Thai League 1, Regular Season - 19 | Venue: Sam Ao Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 26 Jan 2025, 11:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Prachuap 71% | Draw 18% | Chiangrai United 11% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 62% | BTTS 52% | xG Prachuap 2.37 / Chiangrai United 0.84 • Poisson strength factors: Prachuap attack 1.005 / def 0.939 | Chiangrai United attack 0.753 / def 1.353 | league avg home 1.745 / away 1.189 • Poisson stance: Prachuap (71%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.37
Prachuap xG
Expected Goals
0.84
Chiangrai United xG
52%
BTTS
84%
Over 1.5
62%
Over 2.5
40%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Prachuap vs Chiangrai United kick off?
Prachuap vs Chiangrai United kicked off at 11:00 on Sunday 26 January 2025 at Sam Ao Stadium.
What was the final score in Prachuap vs Chiangrai United?
Prachuap 2 - 0 Chiangrai United.
Where is Prachuap vs Chiangrai United being played?
The match is being played at Sam Ao Stadium.
What competition is Prachuap vs Chiangrai United part of?
Prachuap vs Chiangrai United is a Regular Season - 19 fixture in the Thai League 1 (Thailand).
Who is favourite to win Prachuap vs Chiangrai United?
Our statistical model gives Prachuap a 71% chance of winning, Chiangrai United a 11% chance, and a 18% chance of a draw — making Prachuap the favourite.
Will both teams score in Prachuap vs Chiangrai United?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Prachuap and Chiangrai United will score (BTTS).
Will Prachuap vs Chiangrai United have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 62%.
What is the head-to-head record between Prachuap and Chiangrai United?
Record (7 meetings): Prachuap 3W | Draws 2 | Chiangrai United 2W.
What form are Prachuap and Chiangrai United in?
Prachuap (all comps): 3W-5D-2L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-D-L-D-L. Chiangrai United (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-W-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Prachuap's attack at 1.00x the league average against Chiangrai United's defence at 1.35x — combine the two and it projects 2.37 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Chiangrai United's attack (0.75x) against Prachuap's defence (0.94x) — and the away total comes out at 0.84.
These ratings are built from 48/48 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 2-0 carries the highest individual probability at 11.3% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.5%), 1-1 (9.1%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Prachuap Win
71%
1.41
18%
5.43
11%
9.24
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
11.3%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 0
9.5%
Home win
2 – 1
9.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.37
Prachuap xG
Total xG
3.21
0.84
Chiangrai United xG
1.41
71%
Home win
5.43
18%
Draw
9.24
11%
Away win
Goals Markets
83%
Over 1.5
1.20
17%
Under 1.5
5.88
62%
Over 2.5
1.61
38%
Under 2.5
2.63
40%
Over 3.5
2.50
60%
Under 3.5
1.67
22%
Over 4.5
4.55
78%
Under 4.5
1.28
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.91
48%
BTTS No
2.09
Clean Sheet
43%
2.32
9%
10.73
Win to Nil
31%
3.28
1%
99.16
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.0 | 3.4 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 9.5 | 8.0 | 3.4 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 11.3 | 9.5 | 4.0 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 9.0 | 7.5 | 3.2 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 5.3 | 4.5 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 2.5 | 2.1 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Prachuap vs Chiangrai United?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.3%.
How many goals are Prachuap and Chiangrai United expected to score?
The model projects 2.37 expected goals for Prachuap and 0.84 for Chiangrai United, a combined total of 3.21.
How confident is the prediction model for Prachuap vs Chiangrai United?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 71%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Prachuap come into this having played 48 games, going 14W 17D 17L for 1.23 points per game. Their last five reads D-D-L-D-L. The sample for Prachuap is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Chiangrai United sit at 1.12 PPG from 48 outings (14W 12D 22L), a run that reads L-W-W-L-W across their last five. The sample for Chiangrai United is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.23 PPG for Prachuap against 1.12 for Chiangrai United. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
Prachuap's home form reads 12W 7D 4L across 23 games on their own ground, a 1.87 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.23 PPG overall — Prachuap are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Chiangrai United have taken 0.74 points per game from 23 outings (4W 5D 14L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Prachuap come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Prachuap are averaging 1.23 goals scored and 1.29 conceded per game recently; Chiangrai United are on 0.96 scored and 1.44 conceded.
Last 48 Results — Thai League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Prachuap
Blended
Chiangrai United
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Prachuap and Chiangrai United in coming into this match?
Prachuap have gone 14W 17D 17L in their last 48 games (1.23 PPG), while Chiangrai United have gone 14W 12D 22L in their last 48 (1.12 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Prachuap at home or Chiangrai United away?
Prachuap's home record (1.87 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Prachuap at home: 1.87 PPG; Chiangrai United away: 0.74 PPG.
Have Prachuap or Chiangrai United been keeping clean sheets recently?
Prachuap have kept a clean sheet in 29% of their recent games, Chiangrai United in 31%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since September 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Thai League 1. They last met on 10 January 2026, roughly 8 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Prachuap have gone 4W 0D 1L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Chiangrai United — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Prachuap
2
Draws
3
Chiangrai United
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Prachuap and Chiangrai United?
From 10 meetings on record, Prachuap have won 5, Chiangrai United have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Prachuap and Chiangrai United last play each other?
They last met on 10 January 2026, when Prachuap 3-2 Chiangrai United.
Who has won more matches between Prachuap and Chiangrai United?
Prachuap have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Prachuap are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 48% of the time.
Chiangrai United are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Prachuap 56%, Chiangrai United 44% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 56% (Prachuap) and 52% (Chiangrai United).
On the defensive side: Prachuap keep a clean sheet in 39% of their matches; Chiangrai United in 48%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Prachuap home games / Chiangrai United away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Prachuap play Chiangrai United?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 56% of Prachuap's recent matches and 44% of Chiangrai United's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Prachuap vs Chiangrai United usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 56% of Prachuap's recent games and 52% of Chiangrai United's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Prachuap and Chiangrai United tend to score early?
Prachuap have had a goal before half-time in 78% of their recent matches, Chiangrai United in 70% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prachuap cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Chiangrai United.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Prachuap beat Chiangrai United 2-0 at Sam Ao Stadium, Regular Season - 19, in the Thai League 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Prachuap 2.37 xG and Chiangrai United 0.84 xG, a combined 3.21. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Chiangrai United landed 0.8 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Prachuap attack 1.00 / defence 0.94 against Chiangrai United attack 0.75 / defence 1.35, drawn from 48/48 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Prachuap 71% | Draw 18% | Chiangrai United 11%, with Prachuap to win its most likely call at 71%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 62%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 84% and landed. Over 3.5 was 40% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Prachuap 46%, Chiangrai United 44%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Prachuap's trading profile (48 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not.
Chiangrai United's trading profile (48 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 38% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Prachuap 1.23 PPG, Chiangrai United 1.12 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Prachuap win broke the near-deadlock. Prachuap (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 0.96 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.