Prachuap 4-4 Ayutthaya FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Prachuap at 36%, yet other data sources diverge — this Prachuap vs Ayutthaya FC fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Ayutthaya FC make the trip to Sam Ao Stadium to face Prachuap in Thai League 1, Regular Season - 14. The match kicks off on Saturday 6 December 2025 at 12:30 UTC.
Current Form
Prachuap's overall Thai League 1 record this term: 4W 3D 3L from 10 games (1.50 PPG). Last five: W W D L L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Prachuap, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Prachuap at Sam Ao Stadium this season: 5W 3D 2L from 10 home games — 1.80 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Sam Ao Stadium.
Ayutthaya FC (all games): 2W 4D 4L across 10 Thai League 1 outings this term — 1.00 points per game. Last five: L W L W D. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Ayutthaya FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Ayutthaya FC away from home this season: 3W 1D 2L from 6 away games — 1.67 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.67 goals scored and 1.33 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 67% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.67 exceeds their overall 1.00 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
Form favours the hosts. Prachuap's 1.50 PPG return is 0.50 points per game ahead of Ayutthaya FC's 1.00 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
Trading & In-Play
Prachuap — key trading statistics (13 games, 6 at home): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 17% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 0% of games (home games).
Ayutthaya FC — key trading statistics (13 games, 6 at away): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in away games; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 46%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Prachuap 54% and Ayutthaya FC 85% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Prachuap 31% | Ayutthaya FC 62%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Prachuap 1.16 xG and Ayutthaya FC 1.00 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Prachuap attack 0.819 / defence 0.800 | Ayutthaya FC attack 1.057 / defence 0.956. League average goals — home 1.484 / away 1.186. Data: 43 Prachuap games / 13 Ayutthaya FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Prachuap 36% | Draw 36% | Ayutthaya FC 28%. Fair-value odds: Prachuap 2.78 | Draw 2.78 | Ayutthaya FC 3.57. The draw (36%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 37% | BTTS probability 47% | Total xG 2.16. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 63% — total xG of 2.16 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 47% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 36% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 36% and away win at 28% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
Poisson projects 2.16 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 37% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 47% on No. Form rates are neutral: Prachuap 40% | Ayutthaya FC 67%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Prachuap vs Ayutthaya FC | Competition: Thai League 1, Regular Season - 14 | Venue: Sam Ao Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 6 Dec 2025, 12:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Prachuap 36% | Draw 36% | Ayutthaya FC 28% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 37% | BTTS 47% | xG Prachuap 1.16 / Ayutthaya FC 1.00 • Poisson strength factors: Prachuap attack 0.819 / def 0.800 | Ayutthaya FC attack 1.057 / def 0.956 | league avg home 1.484 / away 1.186 • Poisson stance: Draw (36%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.16
Prachuap xG
Expected Goals
1.00
Ayutthaya FC xG
47%
BTTS
67%
Over 1.5
37%
Over 2.5
17%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Prachuap vs Ayutthaya FC kick off?
Prachuap vs Ayutthaya FC kicked off at 12:30 on Saturday 6 December 2025 at Sam Ao Stadium.
What was the final score in Prachuap vs Ayutthaya FC?
Prachuap 4 - 4 Ayutthaya FC.
Where is Prachuap vs Ayutthaya FC being played?
The match is being played at Sam Ao Stadium.
What competition is Prachuap vs Ayutthaya FC part of?
Prachuap vs Ayutthaya FC is a Regular Season - 14 fixture in the Thai League 1 (Thailand).
Who is favourite to win Prachuap vs Ayutthaya FC?
Our statistical model gives Prachuap a 36% chance of winning, Ayutthaya FC a 28% chance, and a 36% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Prachuap vs Ayutthaya FC?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both Prachuap and Ayutthaya FC will score (BTTS).
Will Prachuap vs Ayutthaya FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 37%.
What is the head-to-head record between Prachuap and Ayutthaya FC?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Prachuap and Ayutthaya FC in?
Prachuap (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-W-D-L-L. Ayutthaya FC (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-W-L-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Prachuap's attacking strength (0.82x league average) is weighed against Ayutthaya FC's defensive record (0.96x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.16. Flip it around — Ayutthaya FC's attack (1.06x) against Prachuap's defence (0.80x) — and the away total comes out at 1.00.
These ratings are built from 43/13 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 15.1%. Close behind: 0-0 (13.2%), 1-0 (11.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 40% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Prachuap Win
36%
2.77
36%
2.80
28%
3.55
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.4%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
13.3%
Home win
0 – 0
11.5%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.16
Prachuap xG
Total xG
2.16
1.00
Ayutthaya FC xG
2.77
36%
Home win
2.80
36%
Draw
3.55
28%
Away win
Goals Markets
64%
Over 1.5
1.56
36%
Under 1.5
2.78
37%
Over 2.5
2.70
63%
Under 2.5
1.59
17%
Over 3.5
5.88
83%
Under 3.5
1.20
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.14
53%
BTTS No
1.88
Clean Sheet
37%
2.73
31%
3.19
Win to Nil
13%
7.54
9%
11.35
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.5 | 11.5 | 5.8 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.3 | 13.4 | 6.7 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.7 | 7.8 | 3.9 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.0 | 3.0 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.9 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Prachuap vs Ayutthaya FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.1%.
How many goals are Prachuap and Ayutthaya FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.16 expected goals for Prachuap and 1.00 for Ayutthaya FC, a combined total of 2.16.
How confident is the prediction model for Prachuap vs Ayutthaya FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 36%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Prachuap's recent record stands at 4W 5D 4L from 13 games, a 1.31 PPG return, with W-W-D-L-L in the last five. The sample for Prachuap is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Ayutthaya FC, meanwhile, have gone 3W 5D 5L across 13 games — 1.08 PPG, with L-W-L-W-D in their last five. The sample for Ayutthaya FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.31 PPG for Prachuap against 1.08 for Ayutthaya FC. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Prachuap have managed 3W 2D 1L from 6 games — 1.83 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.31 PPG overall — Prachuap are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Ayutthaya FC's away record stands at 3W 1D 2L across 6 trips, a 1.67 PPG haul. That's actually stronger than their 1.08 PPG overall record — Ayutthaya FC travel well.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Prachuap are averaging 1.23 goals scored and 1.15 conceded per game recently; Ayutthaya FC are on 1.38 scored and 1.69 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Ayutthaya FC in 85%.
Last 13 Results — Thai League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Prachuap
Blended
Ayutthaya FC
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Prachuap and Ayutthaya FC in coming into this match?
Prachuap have gone 4W 5D 4L in their last 13 games (1.31 PPG), while Ayutthaya FC have gone 3W 5D 5L in their last 13 (1.08 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Prachuap at home or Ayutthaya FC away?
Prachuap's home record (1.83 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Prachuap at home: 1.83 PPG; Ayutthaya FC away: 1.67 PPG.
Have Prachuap or Ayutthaya FC been keeping clean sheets recently?
Prachuap have kept a clean sheet in 31% of their recent games, Ayutthaya FC in 8%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 2 times since December 2025 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Thai League 1. They last met on 26 April 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Last 2 Meetings
1
Prachuap
1
Draws
0
Ayutthaya FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Prachuap and Ayutthaya FC?
From 2 meetings on record, Prachuap have won 1, Ayutthaya FC have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Prachuap and Ayutthaya FC last play each other?
They last met on 26 April 2026, when Ayutthaya FC 1-3 Prachuap.
Who has won more matches between Prachuap and Ayutthaya FC?
Prachuap have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Prachuap see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Ayutthaya FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Prachuap 17%, Ayutthaya FC 67% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 0% for Prachuap and 67% for Ayutthaya FC.
On the defensive side: Prachuap keep a clean sheet in 67% of their matches; Prachuap have failed to score in 33% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Prachuap home games / Ayutthaya FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Prachuap play Ayutthaya FC?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 17% of Prachuap's recent matches and 67% of Ayutthaya FC's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Prachuap vs Ayutthaya FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 0% of Prachuap's recent games and 67% of Ayutthaya FC's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Prachuap and Ayutthaya FC tend to score early?
Prachuap have had a goal before half-time in 50% of their recent matches, Ayutthaya FC in 83% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prachuap and Ayutthaya FC share the spoils in a 4-4 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Prachuap and Ayutthaya FC finished level at 4-4 at Sam Ao Stadium, Regular Season - 14, in the Thai League 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Prachuap 1.16 xG and Ayutthaya FC 1.00 xG, a combined 2.16. The scoreboard read 4-4 for 8 actual goals. Prachuap beat their projection by 2.8 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Ayutthaya FC outscored their 1.00 projection by 3.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Prachuap attack 0.82 / defence 0.80 against Ayutthaya FC attack 1.06 / defence 0.96, drawn from 43/13 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Prachuap 36% | Draw 36% | Ayutthaya FC 28%, with Prachuap to win its most likely call at 36%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 36%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 37%. The game delivered 8, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 67% and landed. Over 3.5 was 17% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Prachuap 31%, Ayutthaya FC 62%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 69%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Prachuap's trading profile (13 games, 6 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.
Ayutthaya FC's trading profile (13 games, 6 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 85% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Prachuap 1.31 PPG, Ayutthaya FC 1.08 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Prachuap (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 4 against a 0.33 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Ayutthaya FC (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.67 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 4 against a 1.33 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.