Port FC 3-1 Police Tero – Result & Analysis

Poisson model rates Port FC at 48% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Port FC face Police Tero.

✍️ Match Preview

Pre-Match Analysis

Port FC and Police Tero meet at PAT Stadium in Thai League 1 (matchday 2). This fixture gets under way on Friday 18 August 2023 at 15:00 UK time.

Current Form

Port FC's record over their last 10 games: 6W 2D 2L (2.00 PPG). Last five: D W W L D. They are averaging 2.10 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.

Port FC's form when playing at home: 6W 2D 2L across their last 10 home games (2.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.

Police Tero have collected 1.60 PPG across their last 10 games: 4W 4D 2L. Last five: L W W W D. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.40. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — a high rate that makes Yes a well-evidenced angle from their form.

When travelling, Police Tero have posted 2W 3D 5L from their last 10 away outings — 0.90 PPG. Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 0.90 is notably below their overall 1.60 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.

A near-identical PPG reading — 2.00 for Port FC, 1.60 for Police Tero — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.

In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (from Port FC's last 10 home games and Police Tero's last 10 away games) — Port FC have seen both teams score in 70% of their games, Police Tero in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.

H2H Analysis

Neither side has dominated the 4 H2H matches in our data: 0 wins for Port FC, 1 for Police Tero and 3 draws — leaving the H2H largely neutral.

Goals have been a feature of this fixture — the 4 H2H matches in our data averaged 4.2 per game, which gives Over 2.5 a solid head-to-head foundation. The most recent of those, on 3 Feb 2023, ended Port FC 2–2 Police Tero — a draw.

With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 4.2 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.

Trading & In-Play

Port FC — key trading statistics (last 31 games, 15 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 87% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 57% of the time; of the 12 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 33%; of the 9 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 67%; BTTS occurs in 73% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 45%.

Police Tero — key trading statistics (last 31 games, 15 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 67% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; of the 12 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 42%; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 39%.

From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Port FC 74% and Police Tero 61% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Port FC 58% | Police Tero 58%). Note also that Police Tero surrender HT leads in 42% of cases while Port FC recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 67% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Port FC 1.75 xG and Police Tero 1.28 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Port FC attack 1.091 / defence 0.975 | Police Tero attack 1.073 / defence 1.087. League average goals — home 1.479 / away 1.227. Data: built from Port FC's last 31 games and Police Tero's last 31. Some of those games are older results, so treat these probabilities as directional rather than precise.

Result probabilities: Port FC 48% | Draw 24% | Police Tero 28%. Fair-value odds: Port FC 2.08 | Draw 4.17 | Police Tero 3.59. Port FC hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 59% | BTTS Yes probability 60% | Total xG 3.04. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 59% — the 3.04 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 60% — both xG figures (1.75 / 1.28) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.

Final Verdict

Poisson rates Port FC as the most likely outcome at 48% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 24% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Port FC if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

On the goals line, Poisson's 3.04 combined xG gives a 59% probability to Over 2.5 — strong conviction, supported by recent form (Port FC's last 10 home games and Police Tero's last 10 away games) averaging 3.1 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 4.2 goals per game across 4 H2H matches.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 60%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Port FC 70% (last 10 home games) | Police Tero 60% (last 10 away games).

The Poisson model's sample (Port FC 31 games, Police Tero 31) includes some older results, so its projections carry extra uncertainty — weight recent form and the odds accordingly.

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